海角大神

It鈥檚 been a week since Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared. And every day, it seems, another theory 鈥� typically voiced by an anonymous official or 鈥渆xpert鈥� based on little hard information (or none) 鈥� emerges.

Mechanical failure. A suicidal pilot. Sabotage. Accidental shoot-down and cover-up. A rapid loss of cabin pressure. Piracy.

Reports are made, then debunked. Oil slicks; no oil slicks. Debris that might have come from the airliner; no debris. Seismic reports indicating a possible explosion; no, that was a minor earthquake.

It鈥檚 a human tragedy, of course, particularly for the families of the 239 people 鈥� 227 passengers and 12 crew members 鈥� aboard Flight MH370.

How strange has it gotten?

Renowned illusionist and psychic Uri Geller 鈥� he of the mind-bent spoons 鈥� says he鈥檚 been asked by a 鈥渟ubstantial figure鈥� in Malaysia to employ 鈥渞emote viewing鈥� to help learn of MH370鈥檚 whereabouts, reports the British newspaper the Daily Mirror. At this point, his theory is that the pilots were overcome by an onboard fire.
听
Meanwhile, professional pilots and those in the travel industry have been weighing in.

"We're fascinated by it. We don't know what happened and we hope for a miracle," John DiScala, who runs the travel advice site JohnnyJet.com, told the Associated Press. "People want an answer, and the suspense is killing them."

Patrick Smith has been paying close attention. He鈥檚 an airline pilot, author of 鈥淐ockpit Confidential: Everything You Need To Know About Air Travel,鈥� who wrote Salon.com鈥檚 鈥淎sk the Pilot鈥� column from 2002 to 2012.

Noting reports that the plane, which was headed from Kuala Lampur northeast over the South China Sea to Beijing, turned west and tracked along a series of official navigational waypoints听toward the Indian Ocean, Mr. Smith wrote on his website Friday:

鈥淚t would be difficult 鈥� for this to happen accidentally. So, if true, it suggests the airplane was very much under the control of somebody in the cockpit. How far this tracking continued, and along which path, exactly, is very important. Does this indicate a takeover of some kind? Or, was the crew diverting to a nearby airport because of a fire or some other emergency? Did the plane crash shortly thereafter, or were the pilots overcome by smoke or fumes, at which point plane continued on for a length of time?鈥�

(See Smith鈥檚 fuller explanation of transponders, radar, cabin decompression, and other aspects of airline flying .)

Mounting evidence that MH370 kept flying after it stopped communicating with ground controllers, either by radio or transponder, 鈥渙bviously works against possibilities that the plane vanished from radar coverage because it blew up 鈥� via bomb, some structural failure, missile strike, meteorite, what have you,鈥� writes James Fallows on Atlantic.com.

鈥淭he fact that the plane kept flying, with its transponders turned off, also works against any 鈥榩ilot hypoxia鈥� assumptions,鈥� writes Mr. Fallows, who is an instrument-rated private pilot. 鈥淧ossibilities involving deliberate destruction 鈥� by the flight crew on its own, or by attackers who got control of the plane 鈥� thus become more likely.鈥�

Late Friday afternoon, CNN reported this: "A classified analysis of electronic and satellite data suggests Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 likely crashed either in the Bay of Bengal or elsewhere in the Indian Ocean....听The analysis used radar data and satellite pings to calculate that the plane diverted to the west, across the Malayan peninsula, and then either flew in a northwest direction toward the Bay of Bengal or southwest into the Indian Ocean."

If true 鈥� the focus now is on further confirmation 鈥� that still doesn鈥檛 explain why the Boeing 777 (which has one of the aviation industry鈥檚 best safety records) diverted from its planned route to Beijing.

But CNN鈥檚 report is in line with what US officials quoted elsewhere speculated Friday 鈥� the latest theory to gain attention, which is some form of piracy.

鈥淚t鈥檚 looking less and less like an accident. It鈥檚 looking more like a criminal event,鈥� one official told the Washington Post.

A US official said Friday in Washington that investigators are examining the possibility of "human intervention" in the plane's disappearance, adding it may have been "an act of piracy,鈥� according to the AP.

In any case, cautions Mr. Smith, the airline pilot, 鈥淣o matter who or what is to blame, we shouldn鈥檛 let this latest tragedy overshadow the fact that air travel remains remarkably safe.鈥�

鈥淲orldwide, the trend over the past several years has been one of steady improvement, to the point where last year was the safest in the entire history of commercial aviation,鈥� he writes.