Is Mitt Romney nomination really inevitable anymore?
Is a Mitt Romney nomination really inevitable?
The former Massachusetts governor is trying to create that impression. And certainly, he鈥檚 the only GOP candidate with money, organization, and consistent performances in polls and debates.
On the other hand, those same polls have highlighted Romney鈥檚 inability to go above about 25 percent among likely primary voters 鈥� and much of the other 75 percent seems to gravitate toward anybody but him, convinced that he鈥檚 not a true conservative.
鈥淗e鈥檚 a fragile frontrunner,鈥� says Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. 鈥淚f the anti-Romney side can鈥檛 unite around someone, then yeah, he鈥檚 got a very good chance. But if the anti-Romney side can unite around someone, it will be tougher.鈥�
With Herman Cain now 鈥渞eassessing鈥� his campaign, that possibility looks stronger.
Though Mr. Cain speaking in Ohio Wednesday聽vowed to stay in the race, his candidacy is limping.聽And Newt Gingrich 鈥� already the frontrunner in most polls聽鈥� could benefit more than Romney from a Cain demise.
Recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys probed Cain supporters鈥� second choice, and 37 percent of them picked Mr. Gingrich, compared with just 13 percent who chose Romney. (Fourteen percent opted for Michele Bachmann, and 12 percent went with Rick Perry.)
And Gingrich has been doing everything he can to court those voters.
鈥淚t鈥檚 no accident that Gingrich had the quasi-debate with Cain, and was extremely deferential to Cain,鈥� says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California, referring to the Lincoln-Douglas style debate the two men had earlier this month. 鈥淭hat was an extremely shrewd move on Newt鈥檚 part. He got some publicity and appealed to Cain constituents.鈥�
Still, another survey, from Reuters/Ipsos, calls the conventional wisdom into question. Analysis of that data, an Ipsos pollster said Wednesday, shows that a Cain departure would benefit Romney and Gingrich equally, giving them both about a 3 percent bump.
Polls, of course, don鈥檛 tell the whole story.
Gingrich trails far behind Romney in fundraising, and his campaign lacks Romney鈥檚 organization.
And Gingrich is far from an ideal candidate for conservatives to coalesce around, with plenty of personal and political baggage of his own.
Just a few months ago, his campaign seemed on the verge of death, with little money and a mass exodus of senior staff.
Numerous other 鈥渁nti-Romney鈥� candidates 鈥� including Governor Perry, Cain, and Representative Bachmann 鈥� have soared only to crash.
But timing is everything.
鈥淕ingrich is a smart guy, but he hasn鈥檛 repealed the laws of political gravity,鈥� says Professor Pitney. 鈥淭he question is when gravity is going to take hold. Is it going to happen later this month or deep into the spring? That makes a difference.鈥�
Also an unknown: Gingrich鈥檚 ability to put together a solid campaign organization quickly. His staff says his fundraising has soared along with his poll numbers, but he still lacks the infrastructure of the Romney campaign, as well as its deep pockets.
And there are other factors, including whether another candidate could still have a surge (Perry, again? Rick Santorum?). What about Ron Paul 鈥� who also has a consistent, loyal following?聽
While he鈥檚 unlikely to be the nominee, Representative Paul may win a lot of delegates, and certainly will siphon off some support from both Romney and Gingrich.
Iowa 鈥� the first contest, now less than five weeks away 鈥� is likely to be one of the toughest for Romney.
The polling averages tracked by Real Clear Politics currently have Gingrich at 24 percent and Romney at just under 16 percent, and the most recent poll, by InsiderAdvantage, is even worse for Romney: Gingrich, at 28 percent, has more than double the support of Romney, at 12 percent.
But polls are just one factor. 鈥淚n order to translate support in surveys to support at the ballot box [Gingrich] needs a campaign infrastructure, which he doesn鈥檛 yet have,鈥� notes Pitney.
And Romney鈥檚 strategy has always been to let multiple 鈥渁nti-Romney鈥檚鈥� bloom in a state like Iowa, and then to decisively win New Hampshire, Florida, and a few other early states.
Writing for Fox News yesterday, Joe Trippi, a democratic political strategist who has worked on numerous presidential campaigns, this strategy may fail, opining that 鈥淩omney is in big trouble.鈥�
Mr. Trippi compares Romney鈥檚 campaign to Walter Mondale鈥檚, in 1984, in which he barely eked out a victory over Gary Hart 鈥撀燼 similar scenario where voters were also searching for an alternative candidate.
鈥淚f the 60% of New Hampshire voters who are looking for someone else start to consolidate around the Iowa Caucus winner as the other candidate, Romney could well lose his New Hampshire stronghold,鈥� Trippi wrote. 鈥淒efeat there would end his campaign. And I think it鈥檚 a distinct possibility.鈥�
He also notes that Romney lacks the one thing that ultimately saved the nomination for Mondale: support and loyalty from his party鈥檚 base.
At this point, most analysts agree, the nomination is still Romney鈥檚 to lose 鈥撀燽ut that鈥檚 more due to his opponents鈥� weaknesses than his strength, especially among the more extreme primary voters. If the Gingrich surge continues, Romney's situation will become even more precarious.
Writing in the conservative Tuesday, Erick Erikson said that 鈥渢he most volatile Republican race in decades鈥� is already settled at this point 鈥� in "Not Romney鈥檚" favor. 鈥淭he reason the race is so volatile,鈥� Erickson writes, 鈥渋s that 鈥楴ot Romney鈥� is not on the ballot making a Romney nomination not just possible, but probable.鈥�
If Romney somehow loses this nomination, the conventional wisdom says that the big winner is President Obama 鈥� who most polls show doing far better against a more conservative opponent, like Gingrich. It鈥檚 one reason why Obama鈥檚 team is spending so much cash and energy attacking Romney right now.
But that thinking doesn鈥檛 always play out, cautions聽Professor聽Goldford of Drake University.
In 1979, President Carter鈥檚 campaign team were 鈥渟alivating about the possibility of running against Ronald Reagan,鈥� remembers Goldford. 鈥淵ou have to be careful what you wish for.鈥�
