Anwar al-Awlaki strike: why it's important, but not a death-blow for Al Qaeda
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| Washington
The killing Friday in Yemen of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula鈥檚 American-born Anwar al-Awlaki in an apparent US drone strike will fill the sails of those who insist the global terrorist organization is nearing its demise.
But beyond the debate over whether Al Qaeda is a mortally wounded beast or a Hydra with still-potent force and a capacity for self-renewal is another question: What is the impact of systematically removing the idea men of what is essentially an ideology?
Eliminating Al Qaeda鈥檚 inspirational figures is important because it denies the movement its best communicators with potential recruits both near and far, many counterterrorism experts say. In the case of an al-Awlaki, they add, that means his demise is likely to have greater impact on Al Qaeda鈥檚 inspirational reach than on its prospects in the country where he was based.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e hit a great propagandist 鈥 and propaganda is important 鈥 so in that sense this is a big setback for Al Qaeda,鈥 says Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who is now an intelligence and terrorism expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
On the other hand, Mr. al-Awlaki was less instrumental to the future of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Mr. Riedel says. So no one should expect this blow to mean much in Yemen, which he describes as a country 鈥渃ollapsing into civil war鈥 鈥 the kind of chaos Al Qaeda thrives on.
鈥淗e was not the head of AQAP, he wasn鈥檛 its deputy, and he wasn鈥檛 its bombmaker,鈥 he says. 鈥淪o while this was a good thing to accomplish, AQAP remains a growth industry, and this isn鈥檛 going to change that one iota.鈥
Since the US special forces raid into Pakistan in May that took out Osama bin Laden, a number of US officials and counterterrorism experts have speculated that Al Qaeda increasingly resembles a spent force.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said shortly after taking his job in July that the US is 鈥渨ithin reach of strategically defeating Al Qaeda.鈥 Earlier this month, CIA Director David Petraeus told Congress that the loss for Al Qaeda of not just Mr. bin Laden but leaders like Atiyah Abdul Rahman (in August) had opened 鈥渁n important window of vulnerability鈥 for the terror organization.
Even counterterrorism experts who warn that Al Qaeda鈥檚 weakness is being overplayed 鈥 especially in a tumultuous Arab world 鈥 say that al-Awlaki鈥檚 death is significant, in part because of his influence outside the region.
鈥淲here he had his major impact was in his ability to reach into disaffected and vulnerable communities in the West,鈥 says Christopher Boucek, an expert in security challenges on the Arabian peninsula at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Al-Awlaki was born in New Mexico and raised in Yemen before returning to America from 1991 to 2002 to get a bachelor's degree in civil engineering and a master's in education. He also served as a Muslim imam in California and Virginia.
After leaving the US, he is known for having communicated by e-mail with US Army Maj. Nidal Hasan, who is accused of killing 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009. He also met with Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian Christmas Day bomber who tried to bring down an airliner over Detroit by setting off explosives concealed in his underwear. Mr. Abdulmutallab briefly took English classes in Sana鈥檃, Yemen.
What made al-Awlaki鈥檚 reputation was the native English speaker鈥檚 ability to communicate with a broad audience and his grasp of technological skills. His renown in the West probably overplays his importance, Mr. Boucek says, but al-Awlaki鈥檚 particular skills were still important to Al Qaeda.
鈥淗e wasn鈥檛 the best theologian, but he could switch easily from perfect English to Arabic, with all the references from the Quran you could want,鈥 Boucek says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think we can dismiss the impact of that.鈥
Al-Awlaki was the thinker behind the glossy Al Qaeda magazine 鈥淚nspire,鈥 a periodical that endeavored to explain the world鈥檚 upheaval and put it in the context of jihad. Like the al-Awlaki sermons that are easily found on the Internet, 鈥淚nspire鈥 appealed to young alienated Muslims in a way that the rants of Ayman al-Zawahiri 鈥 the gray-bearded Egyptian who took over Al Qaeda鈥檚 leadership after bin Laden 鈥 could not, experts say.
Al-Awlaki鈥檚 cover story in the spring edition of 鈥淚nspire鈥 stands out, Brookings鈥檚 Riedel says, for the manner in which it explains how events in the Arab World are ultimately playing out in Al Qaeda鈥檚 interest. The cover says simply 鈥淭sunami.鈥
鈥淗e put a spin on the Arab Awakening that was promising for Al Qaeda 鈥 that said all the allies of America in this battleground of Al Qaeda are falling, and that it鈥檚 just a matter of time before our enemies aren鈥檛 going to be around and we鈥檒l be able to move in to pick up the pieces,鈥 Riedel says. 鈥淟osing such a narrator, someone who could interpret events in such a cogent manner, is significant for an organization like Al Qaeda.鈥
Indeed, some experts consider that, in the long run, the major impact of Friday鈥檚 strike may be the mortal blow it delivered to 鈥淚nspire.鈥 Reports circulated after the initial news of al-Awlaki鈥檚 death suggested that the vehicle hit by the drone strike also contained Samir Khan, another American convert to jihad who co-produced the magazine.
鈥淭hese were the brains behind 鈥業nspire,鈥 a very powerful tool that answered all the questions anyone thinking about jihad might have to ask, like, 鈥榃hy should I become involved in this?鈥 鈥 Carnegie鈥檚 Boucek says. 鈥淚f that鈥檚 gone now, that鈥檚 something we shouldn鈥檛 downplay.鈥
Still, Boucek says the loss of one particularly inspirational leader may not, in the end, weigh much against the Arab world鈥檚 upheaval. 鈥淲e are only at the beginning of the transformation in the region,鈥 he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 way too early to be talking about the end of Al Qaeda.鈥