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Afghanistan: Is 2014 the new 2011 for Pentagon war planners?

Senior military officials are now playing down the July 2011 deadline Obama had set for starting US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Instead, the Pentagon is talking up late 2014 as handover date.

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Massoud Hossaini/UPI/Pool/File
Afghan President Hamid Karzai (R) and commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan Gen. David Petraeus meet at the Presidential Palace in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 3. Petraeus arrived on July 2 to assume command of the international military mission in Afghanistan.

Senior US military officials are increasingly deemphasizing the July 2011 deadline set by President Obama earlier this year for beginning US troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, instead talking up a 2014 date cited by President Hamid Karzai as the year he would like Afghans to take over their own security throughout the country.

But as the Pentagon begins to shift emphasis to the end of 2014 鈥 with White House backing 鈥 there is concern about what becomes of the sense of urgency that the earlier date was meant to communicate to the Karzai administration.

This comes amid evidence, too, that Mr. Karzai has in mind a considerably different approach to US operations than do senior US military officials. Such differences prompted NATO commander Gen. David Petraeus to express his 鈥渁stonishment and disappointment鈥 on the heels of Karzai鈥檚 recent remarks that, among other things, he wanted US troops to be less intrusive in the lives of Afghans.

IN PICTURES: Fighting continues in Afghanistan

Petreaus also reportedly speculated during a private meeting about what might happen in a "hypothetical" scenario in which the general might be forced to pull back on US operations in the wake of Karzai's remarks, according to a Washington Post report 鈥 presumably an effort to place pressure on Karzai.

Many US military officials dismiss Karzai鈥檚 comments as primarily for public consumption at home, and point out that a 2014 date to end US combat operations in Afghanistan gives Karzai some political breathing room. The same is true for the Obama administration.

Over at the Pentagon, too, it has been clear for weeks that military officials have been slowly backing away from July 2011 as a date that will hold much meaning for most US troops on the ground.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates last week emphasized that July 2011 is hardly an end date for US troop involvement in Afghanistan and that 鈥渕ost鈥 US forces will continue to fight in Afghanistan long after next summer has come and gone.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a years-long process,鈥 said Secretary Gates. People say, " 'Well, you picked July 2011 and that lets the Taliban know there鈥檚 an end date.' Well, I hope the Taliban think that鈥檚 an end date, because it鈥檚 not. They are going to be very surprised come September, October, when most American forces are still there and still coming after them.鈥

At this week鈥檚 NATO summit in Lisbon, one item on the agenda will be simply 鈥渢o embrace President Karzai鈥檚 goal of completing the transfer of security responsibility to Afghanistan by 2014,鈥 Gates says.

The director of the Pentagon鈥檚 Pakistan/Afghanistan Coordination Cell, Brig. Gen. John 鈥淢ick鈥 Nicholson, said at an Army symposium in October that he believes it would be possible for Afghans to take over security responsibilities in their country 鈥渂y the end of 2014.鈥 He also noted that strikes by US special operations forces are continuing at an 鈥渦nprecedented鈥 pace with 鈥渁 tremendous amount of success.鈥

鈥淓very 24 hours, on average, we鈥檙e killing or capturing three to five midlevel enemy leaders and 24 enemy fighters,鈥 Nicholson said. This, in turn, has 鈥渓owered the average age of enemy leadership because they鈥檙e getting killed so quickly. It鈥檚 severely disrupting their command and control in country.鈥

The concerns Karzai cited this week include special operations night raids, however. How the US military will work that out with Karzai 鈥渞emains to be seen,鈥 says Pentagon spokesman Col. Dave Lapan.

Could the strategy Petraeus envisions succeed without special operations night raids? 鈥淣ot in the view of the command, obviously,鈥 says Lapan, who adds that he is not aware of any plans to stop conducting night raids.

For his part, America鈥檚 top military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, says he is 鈥渃omfortable鈥 with the 2014 end date as an item on the agenda at the NATO summit, and 鈥渁s a goal.鈥 He adds, however, that 鈥渋t鈥檚 always difficult to predict four years out.鈥

Mullen says he doesn鈥檛 see the 2014 date as undermining the sense of urgency Mr. Obama meant to convey by choosing July 2011 as a withdrawal date for US troops. 鈥淚 might turn it to say that [2014], too, creates a sense of urgency for the Afghan leadership,鈥 he says.

In the meantime, Mullen expects the war in Afghanistan to continue apace. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a very tough time,鈥 he says. 鈥淎nd I expect [that] not just this year, but next year will be a pretty tough fight as well.鈥

IN PICTURES: Fighting continues in Afghanistan

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