US crime rate is down: six key reasons
High unemployment, continuing layoffs, mounting debt, record foreclosures, tight household budgets.
Recessions can be the perfect storm for crime.
Yet preliminary crime figures from the Federal Bureau of Investigation for 2009 show that the crime rate is falling across America, across all categories. Violent crime was down 5.5 percent and property crime down 4.9 percent between 2008 and 2009, according to FBI statistics released Monday.
In fact, crime in every category decreased, says FBI spokesman Bill Carter. Murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault all declined in 2009, he said. Robbery 鈥� which tends to boom in bust times 鈥� dropped 8.1 percent.
Which has a lot of criminologists scratching their heads.
鈥淚n theory, in times of recession, crime rates go up,鈥� says Ted Kirkpatrick, co-director of Justiceworks, a crime and justice research group at the University of New Hampshire in Durham. Tight finances, Mr. Kirkpatrick explains, tend to boost property crime and robberies, and financial stress often produces more domestic violence.
鈥淚n fact, that hasn鈥檛 been the case,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e鈥檝e seen a pretty dramatic decline in crime rates.鈥�
Why is crime down, in spite of the recession? Criminologists have a number of theories to explain the decline.
First, says Shawn Bushway, a professor of criminal justice at the University at Albany in New York, it鈥檚 important to recognize that crime has been on a downward trend for more than a decade. The recession鈥檚 short-term effects may have been overwhelmed by the longer-term factors that have produced the long, steady decline in crime.
鈥淐rime is not a cyclical beast, like business,鈥� Mr. Bushway says. 鈥淚t experiences big long ups and big long downs, unlike the up-down-up-down of the business cycle.鈥� He adds, 鈥淐ould that overall downward trend swamp what鈥檚 going on with the business cycle? Sure.鈥�
There鈥檚 a lot more to crime trends than whether the economy is booming or not, Bushway says.
鈥淐rime went up a lot in the 鈥�60s 鈥� when the economy was booming,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat had to do with social institutions, not the economy.鈥�
In this case, a number of other factors might be pushing crime down, even as the recession encourages more criminal activity. Here are the key reasons cited by three criminologists interviewed for this article:
Incarceration
The theory goes: The more criminals are put in jail, the fewer are on the streets to commit crimes. The United States has reached a critical point at which a majority of violent crime offenders are behind bars, many criminologists say.
鈥淏y building more prisons and incarcerating more people, we鈥檝e taken criminals off the street,鈥� says Kirkpatrick of the University of New Hampshire.
Policing听
鈥淧olicing is more proactive,鈥� asserts Bushway of the University at Albany.
One way it's more proactive, Kirkpatrick says, is surveillance.
鈥淚t鈥檚 simply getting harder to commit crime,鈥� he says. 鈥淐ameras are everywhere. Anytime there鈥檚 a bank robbery, you can bet there鈥檚 a number of pictures taken. That鈥檚 forcing illicit behavior underground where it's less detectable.鈥�
Social programs听
Law enforcement has worked with community groups for years to develop programs to keep youths engaged, provide them outlets, and combat crime. Those efforts may finally be paying off, criminologists say.
鈥淓fforts to attend to the needs of young offenders through community outreach programs has helped,鈥� Kirkpatrick says. "The more attention we pay in our communities to kids at risk, the better.鈥�
Demographics
One factor contributing to the downward trend in crime may be simple demographics: Young people commit the most crime, and young people make up a smaller percentage of society now.
鈥淢edian age has increased rather dramatically in last 25 years,鈥� Bushway says. 鈥淐rime tends to be committed by young folks.鈥�
The median age in the US has reached its highest point ever at 36.7 years, according to a 2010 estimate by the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook. This is up from 35.3 years in 2000 and 32.9 years in 1990, according to census figures.
Unemployment benefits
Some theories suggest that the more government support an individual can receive 鈥� through unemployment benefits, food stamps, controlled rent, and other forms of welfare 鈥� the less he or she may be encouraged to commit financial- or stress-motivated crime.
The government鈥檚 stepped-up aid during this recession may have had an effect on crime, says Bushway. 鈥淭he extension of unemployment benefits probably held off crime,鈥� he says.
Fewer opportunities
In at least one way, the recession may have actually staved off property crime, says Richard Rosenfeld, president of the American Society of Criminology and a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri in St. Louis.
鈥淒uring severe recessions like the current one, with chronically high unemployment rates, more people are at home and can act as guardians for their home,鈥� Mr. Rosenfeld says. 鈥淭hat leads to a decline in residential burglaries.鈥�
Furthermore, people have less cash and valuables on hand and in their homes now, making them less-attractive targets, he says.
Will crime rates change as the US climbs out of recession? Probably, but they won鈥檛 necessarily be tied to any recession-related factors, Bushway says.
鈥淸The crime rate] has been leveling off lately following a long, slow decline,鈥� he says. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 striking is it鈥檚 looking like it might start going up. If I can predict anything, it鈥檚 going to go up again.鈥�
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