海角大神

A long time ago in a pre-COVID universe far, far away, blockbusters opened around the globe simultaneously or nearly so. In 1975, 鈥淛aws鈥澛爏et the blueprint.聽Concentrate marketing. Open wide. Pack them in.

Since then, Hollywood has turned opening weekends into an all-out assault. Staggered rollouts still happen, of course, but the biggest films are dropped like carpet bombs. Anything less risks losing the attention of moviegoers. Global debuts north of $300 million became commonplace. Last year, 鈥淎vengers: Endgame鈥� made聽well north of $1 billion聽in a couple days.

Hollywood has now gone more than four months without a major theatrical release. While some films have found new streaming homes, the biggest upcoming ones 鈥� 鈥淭enet,鈥� 鈥淢ulan,鈥� 鈥淎 Quiet Place Part II鈥� 鈥� remain idled like jumbo jets on the tarmac. The leading movie theater chains are still shuttered. Recent coronavirus spikes have聽forced release dates to shuffle聽and theater chains to postpone reopening until August.

Now, movie houses say that despite far from ideal circumstances, it鈥檚 time for new movies. Four months of near zero revenue has brought the $50 billion annual business to its knees. While the beleaguered restaurant industry still has takeout and airlines continue to operate with masked flyers, the vast majority of U.S. movie theaters haven鈥檛 punched a single ticket since March. Some have turned to聽selling popcorn curbside.

鈥淭he problem is, we need their movies,鈥� says John Fithian, president and chief executive of National Association of Theater Owners. 鈥淒istributors who want to play movies theatrically, they can鈥檛 wait until 100% of markets are allowed open because that鈥檚 not going to happen until there鈥檚 a vaccine widely available in the world.鈥�

鈥淭he old distribution models of big blockbusters,鈥� adds Mr. Fithian, 鈥渘eed to be rethought.鈥�

That may mean returning to a more old-fashioned release pattern, opening films overseas first and, in the United States, opening at different times in different areas. When Warner Bros. earlier this week announced it was delaying the release of Christopher Nolan鈥檚 鈥淭enet鈥� because of the rise in cases, Warner Bros. Pictures Group chairman Toby Emmerich said the studio is 鈥渘ot treating 鈥楾enet鈥� like a traditional global day-and-date release.鈥�

Right now, the biggest movies are getting further away, not closer. AMC, the world鈥檚 largest circuit, on Thursday delayed its reopening from the end of July to mid-to-late August. After 鈥淭enet鈥� earlier this week postponed indefinitely, Disney鈥檚 鈥淢ulan鈥� followed suit Thursday. Disney also pushed back numerous releases, including films in the 鈥淎vatar鈥� and 鈥淪tar Wars鈥� franchises, back by a year.

鈥淎 Quiet Place Part II鈥� also joined the exodus Thursday, uprooting from Sept. 4 to April 23 next year.

The coronavirus crisis has ushered in new chapter in the often symbiotic, occasionally quarrelsome relationship between distributors and exhibitors. Splitting ticket sale revenue approximately in half, their fortunes have often been closely linked.

The largest studios 鈥� the Walt Disney Co., Warner Bros., Universal 鈥� all have streaming services of their own now, along with television operations. So they have options. The on-demand release of 鈥淭rolls鈥澛燾aused a rift between Universal and AMC. But the two halves of theatrical moviegoing have worked largely in concert through the pandemic thus far.

It鈥檚 in their own self-interest. Studios have been loath to sacrifice billions in box office for their priciest and most popular releases. On Thursday, John Stankey, chief executive of Warner Bros. parent company AT&T said direct release to HBO Max could be option for some Warner Bros. movies but not the $200 million 鈥淭enet.鈥�

With distancing protocols and other measures, cinemas have reopened in parts of Europe, the Middle East, and South Korea, where last weekend Yeon Sang-ho鈥檚 鈥淭rain to Busan鈥� action sequel 鈥淧eninsula鈥� debuted with $13.2 million. Theaters in China, the world鈥檚 second largest movie market, this week reopened with theaters limited to 30% capacity.

North America, usually the main event of a blockbuster release, may have to learn to follow the rest of the world.

Despite the virus surge in much of the U.S., exhibitors believe they can operate relatively safely by adhering to health officials, decreasing theater capacity, and cleaning in between showings. After initially flip-flopping, AMC聽will require patrons to wear masks.

Some moviegoers, naturally, don鈥檛 anticipate going, regardless of what comes out. Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University, isn鈥檛 planning to go to the movies this year.

鈥淚t seems prudent to think that indoors is where the lion share of transmission takes place,鈥� says Mr. Shaman. 鈥淵ou could think: well, it鈥檚 a movie theater. If you space people out, it鈥檚 a big room, tall ceilings. If they get the ventilation cranked up, it鈥檚 actually not the most concentrated environment. It鈥檚 not liked a packed bar with a low ceiling. It鈥檚 probably not as dangerous as that scenario. But is it more dangerous than sitting home and watching Netflix? Yes, of course it is.鈥�

But imperfect may be all cinemas and studios have for now. Mr.聽Fithian believes 75% of U.S. theaters could be open within days if they had new movies. (Those currently open are mainly playing older films.) Theaters are closed in California and have yet to reopen in New York despite the state鈥檚 relative success in combating the virus. That removes the two top cities in ticket sales, Los Angeles and New York.

鈥淭he longer this goes, there will be bankruptcy filings and reorganizations and there will be people who go out of business,鈥� says Mr.聽Fithian who鈥檚 currently lobbying for greater Congressional support for theaters. 鈥淏ut if there are no new movies until that鈥檚 a vaccine, that鈥檚 a dire situation for a lot of companies.鈥�

AMC recently raised $300 million in debt relief to help itself remain solvent. Throughout the industry, some 150,000 workers remain furloughed.

Jonathan Kuntz, a film historian and professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, says 鈥淭enet鈥� 鈥渨as made for a world that no longer exists.鈥�

But as much as the familiar kind of worldwide launch is now impossible, the downside of improvising might not be as bad as it seems 鈥� provided piracy isn鈥檛 widespread. There will be scant competition. 鈥淭enet鈥� can take up most screens. Its opening can be spread out through the week. Advertising will be cheaper. Audiences will have little to distract them.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e going to have to be very inventive and very nimble to squeeze what they can out of this movie and maybe set a pattern for this kind of COVID theatrical universe we鈥檙e moving into,鈥� says Mr.聽Kuntz. 鈥淚f they don鈥檛 do something, if they just keeping holding the films back, the theaters are going to die. Then everything鈥檚 going to just be streaming and we鈥檒l have lost something a lot of people 鈥� not just Christopher Nolan 鈥� treasure.鈥�

This story was reported by The Associated Press.

Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service, the Monitor has removed the paywall聽for all our coronavirus coverage. It鈥檚 free.