Are the computer models any better than Punxsutawney Phil?
Who鈥檚 more accurate, a lab full of scientists with supercomputers performing predictive ensemble calculations or a large ground squirrel?
Some say that the failure to accurately predict Superstorm Sandy and even last week鈥檚 winter storm have led the public to have more faith in a rodent than a supercomputer.
鈥淚t鈥檚 the whole 鈥榗ry wolf鈥� issue where you lose credibility each time you say New York鈥檚 going to get three feet or more of snow and they get 10-inches instead,鈥� says聽Clifford Mass, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington. 鈥淔orecasting has come along huge strides in the past 50 years. That鈥檚 not an issue. But it ain鈥檛 perfect!鈥�
He points to the way US forecasts for Superstorm Sandy聽.
鈥淲e failed to get that right because America couldn鈥檛 afford to buy a better computer,鈥� Dr. Mass says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a big part of what鈥檚 driving Republican enthusiasm for dropping climate change in favor of weather forecasting.鈥�
Mass is an advocate of infusing millions into what he terms 鈥減robabilistic ensemble prediction鈥� which basically means using lots of data sources run multiple times through supercomputers to improve forecasting.
On another front are the supporters of more traditional forecasting methods.
鈥淚 think we do a great job,鈥� says Pete Geiger, owner and editor of The Farmers' Almanac in a phone interview from his office in Lewiston, Maine, where he says he knew two years ago the weather today would reach a stormy sub-zero.
The Farmers' Almanac 鈥� which is a rival publication to the similarly named Old Farmer's Almanac 鈥� uses聽聽created in the 1800s by a former editor, which takes into account sunspots, the position of the Earth, the effects of the moon, and some good old-fashioned know-how by a prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee to predict the weather two years in advance, Mr. Geiger explains.
Several million copies per year of the Almanac circulate in the United States, according to Geiger.
鈥淟ast winter the whole winter went exactly as we predicted it to go,鈥� Geiger says. 鈥淥ur forecasting is a bride鈥檚 best friend because where else can you go more than a year-out to get a forecast that-s 80-85 percent accurate?鈥�
Geiger sadly admits to one, singular, epic fail of his magazine鈥檚 predictive system: Superstorm Sandy.
鈥淲e missed Sandy. But then again, so did the they guys at NOAA and the National Weather Service that people want to hand $360 million,鈥� Geiger asks. 鈥淭ell me, how much better are you going to get for that money when we鈥檙e neck-and-neck with them using a system from the 1800s?鈥�
鈥淒on鈥檛 listen to those Farmers' Almanac people,鈥� says Mass who, through聽, is a vocal critic of the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the Farmers' Almanac, the Old Farmer's Almanac, the groundhog, and many other weather predictors. 鈥淭he Almanac involves no skill whatsoever. It鈥檚 like the groundhog, a fun and folkloric bit of fun and games.鈥�
Mass says he has also contributed his opinion to members of the House of Representatives in support of their quest to聽聽 鈥� if it passes through the Senate and is signed into law by the President.
鈥淭he Republicans are behind weather forecasting instead of climate change because a lot of red states are negatively impacted by severe weather events,鈥� Mass says. 鈥淲eather forecasting becomes political fast. It becomes technical fast. It鈥檚 no accident that we had the announcement that new supercomputers are coming in September (2015) the moment we got a Republican-controlled Congress.鈥�
Mass adds, 鈥淲e [Americans] invented numerical weather prediction and fell to third in the world because we couldn鈥檛 buy what we needed. It came down to a lack of computing power.鈥�
Meanwhile, in Maine, Caleb Weatherbee and his six predecessors over the past 198 years started with a chalk slate and have graduated to using calculators.
