El Ni帽o plus the hottest year on record: What that equals for 2015
What do you get when you combine record-busting temperatures and a powerful El Ni帽o聽gaining strength?
鈥淎 new normal," Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said in an interview with . "I don't know what really else to call it."
Climate scientists the world over are acknowledging Earth is in uncharted weather territory. Nearly every meteorological team that captures temperature data found that October 2015 set a record for most above-average temperatures, including NASA, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, University of California at Berkeley, and University of Alabama at Huntsville, which measures atmospheric temperature using satellites, Ms. Blunden said.
January through October 2015 has been the hottest period on Earth since records were established in 1880. And the last year has been the hottest consecutive 12 months on record.
In the Pacific Ocean, El Ni帽o聽is churning ever-warmer waters, wringing out hurricanes in the East Pacific and droughts in South East Asia. (WMO) said it will soon know if the El Ni帽o聽of 2015 will trump the 1997-98 phenomenon, a cycle that altered global rainfall and wrought a billion dollars in economic losses. But WMO, the weather agency of the United Nations, has said the average surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean the last three months will top 2 degrees Celsius above normal, putting this El Ni帽o event among the three strongest since 1950, and on track to break more records.聽
鈥淪evere droughts and devastating flooding being experienced throughout the tropics and sub-tropical zones bear the hallmarks of this El Ni帽o, which is the strongest for more than 15 years,鈥� said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud in a statement.
But Mr. Jarraud also tempered the superlatives, saying that historic weather has informed future plans, calling the level of preparedness on display from international to local levels, "unprecedented," and much improved since the last dramatic El Ni帽o in 1998.聽聽
鈥淲e are better prepared for this event than we have ever been in the past. On the basis of advice from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, the worst-affected countries are planning for El Ni帽o and its impacts on sectors like agriculture, fisheries, water, and health, and implementing disaster management campaigns to save lives and minimize economic damage and disruption,鈥� he said.
Jarroud and NOAA's聽Blunden agree that warmer average temperatures will only be reinforced under the El聽Ni帽o influence.
鈥淓ven before the onset of El Ni帽o, global average surface temperatures had reached new records. El Ni帽o is turning up the heat even further,鈥� said Jarraud.
This El Ni帽o聽may聽persist into the summer of 2016, according to the US聽. The heat put off into the atmosphere during an El Ni帽o聽can last longer than the warmer tides, meaning 2016 could聽break global records 鈥� forging the potential for three consecutive hottest years on record, one beating the next since 2014.聽
Blunden said "it is virtually just impossible that we will not break the record" for the hottest year in 2015.聽
