Is OPEC coming apart at the seams?
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Growing security risks in the Middle East are giving oil companies the jitters. French supermajor Total said recently that it was spending more on security since the January attack on the In Amenas gas facility in Algeria. BP said it had its own concerns, noting it was holding back on natural gas projects in the country because of the security situation there. OPEC-member Algeria has seen听听declines in every month so far this year. In a lackluster economy, there hasn't been much from OPEC members to suggest there was any sort of revival. But with seven of the 12 members of the cartel experiencing at least some form of upheaval, the cost of doing business suggests members may need more than a little bit of luck to return to glory.
In January, fighters affiliated with al-Qaida听听the In Amenas natural gas facility in Algeria.听 The facility is operated by British supermajor BP, Norwegian energy giant Statoil and Algerian state-owned oil and natural gas company Sonatrach. A four-day operation by Algerian forces left dead more than two dozen militants and 37 hostages, some of them energy company employees. The attack was perpetrated by an al-Qaida group, dubbed Those who Sign with Blood, from across the border in Libya.听(Related article:听)
Four months on and energy companies working in the region are expressing concern that the cost of doing business in the region may be too high. BP听听an oil contract in Libya when civil war descended on the country in 2011. By last year, it said the situation there had approved enough to consider exploratory drilling but backed off again after the cross-border attack in January. It's Algeria's turn this time around, with BP听听it was reviewing its plans to develop natural gas fields in the country.听
For Total, the situation isn't much different. The Algerian attackers听听their assault was in response to the French decision to enter the fight in Mali, where al-Qaida seized territory following a 2012 coup. Now, Total听听it has to spend extra money on security in the Middle East to continue operating there, more than two years after the so-called Arab Spring splashed its democratic wave across much of the region. Algeria is one of the major suppliers of natural gas to the European community. While some analysts suggest recent听听mark a rebound for Algeria, Total's spending woes and BP's chin scratching may indicate there are still some lingering concerns less than four months after the terrorist attack.听(Related article:听)
But it's not just Algeria. Lawmakers in Venezuela were听听in a punch up following an election to replace Hugo Chavez. Sanctions on Iran, meanwhile, have forced many of its oil and natural gas customers away听听of the economic risks of doing business. In Nigeria, the United Nations听听it was deeply concerned about the bloodshed that followed a military attack on Boko Haram, a militant group with ties to al-Qaida. Rights groups, meanwhile,听听British Prime Minister David Cameron to address the human rights situation in the United Arab Emirates, where some observers saw the recent arrest of al-Qaida sympathizes as a cover-up for repression. French concerns extended beyond Mali and Total's, meanwhile, when a car bomb听听through part its embassy in Tripoli and April was the deadliest month in听听in roughly five years. Including Algeria, that's seven of the 12 members of OPEC embroiled in some degree of turmoil.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, in a much publicized听听last week,听听there are no major plans to increase production capacity. Saudi Arabia will "be lucky" if it breaks the 9 million bpd mark by 2020, he said. Taking Iraq as a bellwether of how long it takes to sort out a post-war mess, he made need more than a bit of luck to revitalize the once-dominate OPEC cartel.
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