Libyan attack on embassy: an al-Qaeda connection?
People often ask me why the West doesn鈥檛 attempt a Libya-style intervention in Syria. After all, things are going so well in Libya. Oil production is up. But oil production is merely a mirage, as is security in Libya, which was doomed from the day one PG (post-Gaddafi) because of the way it was 鈥渓iberated鈥�.听
On Wednesday, US envoy to Libya Christopher Stevens was killed along with three other American diplomats in a rocket attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.听
What about the oil, that global elixir? (More from Oilprice.com:听.)听Well, the violence will not bode well for Libya鈥檚 production ambitions, coming at a time when the country looked prepared for a boost in output and was banking on this for economic growth.听
Security was already dubious at best, and now international oil companies will be more reluctant than ever. Those that are already there鈥�Germany鈥檚 Wintershall AG, Italy鈥檚 Eni and France鈥檚 Total鈥攚ill be seeking to beef up security and have already started sending some of their workers home.
If the picture was not clear from the onset of the post-Gaddafi atmosphere, it certainly came into focus earlier this summer when protests over parliamentary elections forced the temporary closure of the el-Sider oil terminal, the country鈥檚 biggest.听听听
Anyone who thinks that Libya will be a secure oil frontier after the formation of a new government next summer is mistaken. The road to destruction runs from Afghanistan to Benghazi (incidentally, the oil-producing region), branching off to southern Iraq and Pakistan鈥檚 tribal regions.听
So, you ask, what about the controversial anti-Islamic movie apparently put together by an Israeli-American real estate developer with too much time on his hands?听
According to听听- a private intelligence and analysis boutique that has spent much time dissecting the intervention in Libya and the conflict in Syria鈥攖he anti-Islamic movie is a red herring in all of this.
Speaking to Oilprice.com, Jellyfish President Michael Bagley said that while the movie is being upheld as the root cause of the intensifying protests and the death of the US envoy to Libya, it has only served to give added momentum to another more important development.听
鈥淭he key to all of this is al-Qaeda鈥檚 second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, who was killed by a US drone attack in Waziristan on 4 June,鈥� Bagley said. 鈥淭he real catalyst for the attack in Libya and the unrest that has spread to Yemen, was a lengthy video released by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, marking the anniversary of 9/11 and admitting to the death of al-Libi, who is Libyan.鈥�
鈥淭his was a very powerful call to avenge al-Libi鈥檚 death,鈥� Bagley said, 鈥渁nd it came only 24 hours before the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.鈥澨�
To put this into perspective, let鈥檚 reminisce a bit about al-Libi, whose past is a roller coaster, enemy-foe ride with the US.
Al-Libi was captured in the 鈥渨ar on terrorism鈥� in Afghanistan in 2002 and held for three years in Kabul鈥檚 high-security Bagram prison. Against all odds, he escaped in 2005.
In 2011 he resurfaced again, but this time as a friend to Washington who had decided that it was no longer friends with Gaddafi, despite all the efforts leading up to this to rebuild relations after that nasty Lockerbie business and all the sanctions. So here is al-Libi again, but this time around his terrorist inclinations are a bonus rather than a liability: He fights alongside intervention forces to oust Gaddafi.听
With Gaddafi gone, al-Libi once again became a liability so he was taken out by a drone in Pakistan.听听
This brings us back to the present, with al-Zawahiri on the rampage and Libyan鈥檚 wise to their liberators.听
鈥淭his is a cut and dry example of the backfire of the US intervention strategy,鈥� Bagley said. 鈥淟et鈥檚 hope it isn鈥檛 attempted in Syria.鈥澨�
The post-Gaddafi Libya is not real. It鈥檚 a dangerous fabrication of materials stuck together by the glue of dubious alliances with jihadists who are cut loose with their weapons once the immediate goal (Gaddafi鈥檚 demise) was achieved. Forget about the oil for now. 听(More from Oilprice.com:听.)
Source:听
