The weather is wild. One meteorologist on why, and what we can do.
From tornadoes in Florida to floods in Maine, record-setting freezes in Montana to聽blizzards in Buffalo, extreme weather has battered much of the United States this past week. It left us, along with many Americans, wondering: What, exactly, is going on?聽
To get some answers, we called up Jeff Masters, the meteorologist who co-founded the online聽weather forecasting service聽Weather Underground 鈥� and who used to chase hurricanes for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.聽
He told us that some of the winter weather is just, well, winter. But there鈥檚 also a lot that has been unusual, like those tornadoes. Indeed, meteorologists are expecting the unexpected these days, he says, and are feeling increasing pressure to predict, explain, and protect their followers from the weather.
Why We Wrote This
The extreme weather that鈥檚 recently pounded much of the United States will likely occur more often. But there are ways to become more adaptable, according to a climate expert.
鈥淭he role of meteorologists has become more important because the climate is changing in unprecedented ways,鈥� Dr. Masters says. 鈥淎nd we really need to understand what鈥檚 going on.鈥�
Here鈥檚 what else he told us, with edits for length and clarity.
Is it us, or has the weather just been crazy this week?
You had a lot of hazards going on all at once. I mean, you had freshwater flooding due to heavy rain. You had coastal flooding due to these storms. And, of course, inland you had heavy snow. Buffalo got, I think, 40 inches of snow. And then down South you had tornadoes and severe storms, a lot of power outages, strong winds. So, we had the full gamut of extreme weather over the past week. And cold, too. I mean, it鈥檚 pretty darn cold here in Michigan where I am.
How much of this extreme weather is because of climate change?聽聽
There鈥檚 more heat in the atmosphere. And more heat means energy. So that means the energy to evaporate more water from the oceans and create heavier rains. We can ascribe some of the extra precipitation we鈥檝e been seeing from these storms to climate change. The other way that climate change can influence extreme weather is through changes in circulation patterns. The jet stream, for instance, is not behaving like it used to; it鈥檚 not going straight west to east like it normally does. It鈥檚 been contorting into these unusually strong ridges and troughs, which tend to amplify extreme weather events.聽
Does that mean that last week鈥檚 snow storms, with their record low pressure systems, were caused by climate change?
It鈥檚 really impossible to say what percentage of that was due to climate change. I wouldn鈥檛 be surprised if there was a study you could do showing that there was a significant influence. But you really would have to do the work. It could also be that most, or all, of the extremity that we saw with the jet stream over the past week was natural variability.
One of the more active debates in the climate science community is just how much climate change is affecting extreme winter weather outbreaks. And that is definitely not decided at this point. We have a lot more confidence about how climate change is affecting things like summertime drought, heat waves, heavy precipitation events.
Do you think the wild weather is going to continue?
It鈥檚 gonna be a bonkers year. This summer, in particular. We鈥檝e got a record amount of heat in the oceans right now. That means this coming summer should be a record warm summer, globally. And when you鈥檝e got record heat in the atmosphere, that means a lot of energy to power extreme weather events. So, we鈥檙e going to see record heat waves, we鈥檙e going to see record droughts and record rainfall events because you can evaporate more moisture into a warm atmosphere. And I鈥檓 really concerned about the Atlantic hurricane season, too. If you look at the region of the tropical Atlantic where hurricanes form, right now it is the same temperature as we typically see in late July. So that鈥檚 pretty insane that in January, we鈥檝e got July-like ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.聽
So what does this mean for us as a society?
Until we go to zero emissions and the planet stops heating up, the weather is going to get more extreme. We鈥檝e really got to up our game as far as responding to this new climate we鈥檝e created. Our infrastructure in the U.S. was built for the climate of the 20th century. And the climate of the 21st century is a completely different thing. If you鈥檝e got a city where the levees are built to withstand a one-in-100-year flood, what happens if that flood occurs every 20 years? We鈥檝e exceeded the capability of our 20th century climate infrastructure.
You鈥檝e written about this and have suggested large-scale changes we need to make, such as no longer building in areas prone to floods or wildfires. But what can everyday people do today to adapt to this 21st century climate?
If you go to the Federal Emergency Management Agency website, they鈥檝e got recommendations on how to flood-proof your home. It makes sense to spend some dollars to make sure your home is flood-proof. You should also understand what your flood risk is. One tool I would recommend is a website called floodfactor.com. It basically gives you a 1-to-10 rating of what your risk is from weather hazards. There鈥檚 a flood rating, a wind rating, a wildfire rating, and a heat rating. It would be smart to do some flood-proofing if you do live in a flood zone. Consider buying more flood insurance if you are in a flood zone. If you鈥檙e living in a wildfire zone, there鈥檚 a lot you can do to make your home more resistant to fires, like creating a defensible space around it so you don鈥檛 have a pile of wood next to your house or a wooden deck or eaves where embers can get under. There are a lot of smart things you can do.聽
