How sea-level rise could affect Pacific nations' fishing rights
| Oslo
Small island states in the Pacific are opening a new front in the fight against rising seas, to secure rights to an ocean area bigger than the moon and home to billion-dollar fish stocks.
States from Kiribati to Tuvalu are mapping their most remote islands, scattered across the ocean, in a bid to claim permanent exclusive economic zones (EEZs), stretching 200 nautical miles offshore, irrespective of future sea level rise.
As global warming pushes waters higher, Pacific nations fear some of their islands could be swamped, shrinking their EEZs and rights to fishing and mining within their boundaries 鈥� so they are trying to lock in existing zones now.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a sense of urgency,鈥� said Jens Kr眉ger, deputy director of the ocean and maritime program at the Fiji-based Pacific Community, a development organization.
鈥淪ea level rise and climate change are threats that can devastate our islands.鈥�
Once islands and EEZs are mapped in line with United Nations rules, Pacific nations believe they cannot be 鈥渃hallenged or reduced as a result of sea level rise and climate change,鈥� Mr. Kr眉ger said.
Under the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which was agreed to before sea level rise was recognized as a global problem, states have rights in a 200-nautical mile EEZ stretching from their shores.
But higher seas, driven by melting ice in Antarctica and Greenland as the planet鈥檚 climate heats up, could force people to abandon low-lying islands.
That would downgrade them to 鈥渞ocks鈥� in U.N. terminology, with UNCLOS specifying that 鈥渞ocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own鈥� do not qualify for an EEZ.
Future development
Seas could rise by up to about 3.28 feet this century, depending on how far global temperatures warm, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned.
Pacific states are concerned that storm surges, flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion are already harming their land, damaging homes and farms among other assets.
In addition, they have vital economic interests far offshore, especially the sale of licenses to tuna fishing fleets from nations such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States.
Clive Schofield, head of research for the Global Ocean Institute at the World Maritime University in Sweden, said the EEZs were 鈥減articularly critical to the small-island, large-ocean states of the Pacific.鈥�
鈥淚 think there is growing support for the idea that these states who have contributed the least to climate change should not be penalized first,鈥� he said.
鈥淲e are talking about rights over marine resources that are fundamental to their future development.鈥�
The Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission said the region鈥檚 tuna catch of 2.9 million metric in 2019 was worth $5.8 billion and accounted for 55% of the global total.
The fear is that, if islands disappear, foreign fishing vessels could scoop up tuna stocks, arguing the waters are no longer in a nation鈥檚 EEZ but part of the high seas, open to all.
Ten Pacific island states, including Fiji, Kiribati, Tonga, and Tuvalu, have about 2 million people living on a land area of 23,938 square miles, roughly the size of the U.S. state of Florida, according to U.N. data.
But their combined EEZs total more than 15,444,000, which is bigger than the surface of the moon or the entire continent of Africa.
Charting debate
Most legal experts dismiss the idea of renegotiating UNCLOS, which was decades in the making and has not been formally ratified by the U.S.
鈥淐hanging UNCLOS would be a nightmare,鈥� said Elaine Baker, a professor at the University of Sydney and director of its Marine Studies Institute.
Countries have been quick to claim extra land, for instance after an offshore volcanic eruption created an island, but she could think of no examples of nations giving up maritime zones when islands disappeared.
鈥淧eople want to celebrate land appearing but not so much land disappearing,鈥� said Ms. Baker, who also works for the Norway-based GRID-Arendal environmental communications group.
The Pacific Community says Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Niue, Samoa, Tuvalu, Australia, and others either have changed, or are in the process of changing, legislation to allow them to use geographical coordinates to define their EEZs, rather than traditional maritime charts.
David Freestone, a professor at The George Washington University Law School, said Pacific states may face problems if they formally fix their EEZs but fail in future to update charts for navigation. Outdated charts could be misleading for ships.
鈥淥ther countries with wider maritime interests, like the United States, say it鈥檚 unsafe if [Pacific nations] don鈥檛 update their charts 鈥� it is a maritime risk,鈥� he said.
Pacific island governments have agreed to recognize each other鈥檚 existing maritime limits 鈥� but that may not be enough.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not the mutual recognition they want, it鈥檚 the recognition of everybody else,鈥� Freestone said.
If islands disappear, 鈥渢he Japanese and the Chinese could say 鈥榯his is no longer an exclusive economic zone鈥�,鈥� and try to fish or mine in the region, he added.
The International Law Association, grouping scholars around the world, has supported the vulnerable islands, saying in a 2018 resolution that any maritime zones determined under UNCLOS 鈥渟hould not be required to be recalculated should sea level change affect the geographical reality of the coastline.鈥�
The Federated States of Micronesia, for instance, has submitted hundreds of pages to the United Nations to detail the outer extent of its EEZs, which could make it easier to enforce the zone in any dispute with foreign fleets.
The submission lists tens of thousands of coordinates in the Pacific Ocean, such as 3掳19鈥�49.99鈥� North 149掳04鈥�07.84鈥� East.
Micronesia wrote in a 2020 letter to the United Nations that it 鈥渋ntends to maintain these maritime zones ... notwithstanding climate change-induced sea level rise.鈥�
Tuvalu Foreign Minister Simon Kofe, meanwhile, told a conference last September that his nation insists, in diplomatic relations with other countries, that they recognize 鈥渢he statehood of the nation as permanent and its existing maritime boundaries as set, regardless of the impacts of sea level rise.鈥�
Pacific small island states may be pioneering work to secure maritime boundaries, but rising seas could redraw coasts from Bangladesh to Miami. About 680 million people worldwide live within 10 meters of sea level, according to the IPCC.
鈥淭his issue isn鈥檛 just for small island developing states, it鈥檚 an issue for the global coastal community,鈥� said Schofield of the Global Ocean Institute.
This story was reported by The Thomson Reuters Foundation.
