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Study points to developing world feeling more impact from climate change

However, critics of the Australian research team's efforts say industrialized nations have and will be affected, too.

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Rob Griffith/AP/File
In this 2014 file photo, smoke billows out of a chimney stack of steel works factories in Port Kembla, south of Sydney, Australia.

A study released Friday shows that the wealthiest 4 percent of the world鈥檚 population is creating 50 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions, but will likely suffer little impact resulting from climate change, such as聽increased frequency of natural disasters, changing habitats, human health impacts, and industry stress.

The study, generated by the聽,聽likens greenhouse gas emissions from countries such as the United States and China to 鈥渟econd-hand smoke." The report is not being well received by some climate change experts who agree with the assessment of the inequity of the damage being done, but not with the impact assessments made by the authors. 聽

鈥溾 is authored by professors Glenn Althor, James E. M. Watson, and Richard A. Fuller.

Dr. Watson refers to the highest emitting countries, such as the US, Canada, Australia, China, and much of Western Europe as 鈥渟mokers," he says in a phone interview from his office at the University of Queensland. Meanwhile, developing nations find themselves in a scenario that 鈥渋s like a non-smoker getting [diagnosed with] cancer from second-hand smoke, while the heavy smokers continue to puff away.鈥

鈥淲e wanted to prove that the ones causing climate change weren鈥檛 feeling the brunt of it,鈥 Watson says. 鈥淲e used data sets on emissions. Also we used the聽聽data set, which goes up to 2030, to show the vulnerability to climate change at a national level. We overlaid those two sets and got something really quite elegant.鈥

DARA is an independent non-profit organization concerned with the quality and effectiveness of humanitarian action for vulnerable populations affected by armed conflict and natural disasters.

鈥淚n line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change," writes Watson and his co-authors in their study, which was published in the journal Nature. "Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 countries (16 percent)聽had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030.鈥

The study refers to nations causing the bulk of the issue as 鈥渇ree riders鈥 and says that the lack of repercussions from their actions 鈥渁cts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions.鈥

鈥淕enerally, if you鈥檙e a nation who is vulnerable to climate change, you鈥檙e very likely to not be causing the problem,鈥 Watson says. 鈥淐onversely, if you鈥檙e a nation causing climate change, you鈥檙e likely not to be vulnerable so there鈥檚 [a] mismatch between those causing the problem and those who are actually suffering from the problem, which is a very concerning mismatch around this equity issue.鈥

This is where others investigating climate change such as Joseph Romm, author of 鈥,鈥澛燽eg to differ.

鈥淚鈥檓 not that thrilled with this particular study,鈥 says Mr. Romm in a phone interview. " 'Second-hand smoke鈥 is a good analogy but remember that first-hand smoke has plenty of problems too... It is certainly clear that the rich nations have gotten rich on fossil fuels and that many of the world鈥檚 poorest countries are going to suffer a great deal and they didn鈥檛 contribute at all. It鈥檚 also clear that the US isn鈥檛 doing its fair share. Those points are sort of indisputable.鈥

The study overstates the inequity issue, Romm says, adding, "I don鈥檛 like leaving people with the impression that it's only poor countries far away that are taking the brunt of climate change. We are the world鈥檚 breadbasket and very vulnerable to changes in precipitation, drought, snowstorm, and tornadoes. We鈥檙e a country that is quite vulnerable to changes in extreme weather events and sea level rise.鈥

Watson clarifies the point of the study by saying, 鈥淓veryone is vulnerable to climate change. It鈥檚 not that [poorer nations are] not vulnerable, it鈥檚 just that the ones who are extremely vulnerable are the ones who are not causing the problem. There is no doubt that every nation on earth 鈥 every human on earth 鈥 will be suffering some kind of consequence of climate change, now and into the future.鈥

鈥淲hat鈥檚 concerning is that ever since 1993 and the聽聽[of the United Nations], this whole concept of shared differentiated responsibilities has been central to negotiations and yet 20 years on this is completely ignored,鈥 Watson says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 doesn鈥檛 come up. It鈥檚 not dealt with.聽The Paris Agreement [from the聽 in December] may be a significant step forward in global climate negotiations. The inequity has to be rectified if this is to be a fair process.鈥

"With climate change, the stakes are particularly high for the world's poor,鈥 writes Keith Gaby, communications director for the Climate & Air Environmental Defense Fund, in an email response to the study. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 part of the reason that those countries who did the most to cause this problem have a moral obligation to take ambitious action. That鈥檚 in addition to our responsibility to our own children and grandchildren."

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