海角大神

As a young Moscow correspondent, I visited Soviet Ukraine several times. I聽covered religious conflict聽in the western city of Lviv, as Ukrainian Catholics sought to reclaim churches from Russian Orthodox parishes. I talked to coal miners in the Donbass region. I聽traveled in the motorcade聽of presidential candidate Viacheslav Chornovil, a nationalist who insisted on speaking Ukrainian in the highly Russified eastern part of the republic.

These trips all took place before the formal breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, but the future seemed clear: Ukraine would become an independent state, electing its own leaders, trying to chart its own path. But geography and history are tough to shake, and neighboring Russia has never let go of the idea that Russians and Ukrainians are聽聽After all, ancient Kievan Rus 鈥� the cradle of Russian civilization 鈥� was centered in modern-day Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.聽

So I read Monitor correspondent Dominique Soguel鈥檚 recent dispatches from Ukraine with great interest. In Kyiv, she聽plumbed locals鈥� views聽of a possible Russian invasion. From the eastern border village of Milove, she wrote about the region鈥檚聽dual identities.

I also dug out a grad school paper I wrote in 1995 on Ukraine鈥檚 future. The professor was former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, a Polish 茅migr茅 who cared deeply about the subject. I concluded in the paper that a truly independent Ukraine was likely impossible, given Russia鈥檚 regional dominance. Perhaps, I added, Ukraine could bolster its independence through economic growth. Dr. Brzezinski agreed.聽

In retrospect, we were too optimistic. In 2014, the Russians annexed Crimea and today, still occupy parts of the Donbass. They could invade more of the country at any moment.聽Whatever happens, the world is watching.