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President Donald Trump won鈥檛 commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election. He鈥檚 said that over and over in recent days, so it鈥檚 not a slip of the tongue.

Given that, how worried should voters be about the state of democracy in America?听

First, some background. President Trump鈥檚 reason for his stance isn鈥檛 based on evidence.

Study after study has shown voting fraud isn鈥檛 a problem at the federal level. Mr. Trump鈥檚 own FBI director, Christopher Wray, told the Senate that just days ago.

鈥淲e have not seen, historically, any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it鈥檚 by mail or otherwise,鈥� Mr. Wray said.

Yet Mr. Trump insists that 2020 voting will be a 鈥渂ig scam鈥� because of a rise in mail-in ballots due to the pandemic.

Second, there are weaknesses in the system the president could exploit. What if he leads in key states on Election Day, then Democratic mail-in votes begin to erode his margin? Baseless charges of fraud and attempts to shut down counting could cause a national political crisis.

But third, the odds are against this. If election trends are clear relatively early in the counting process there is much less chance that Republicans 鈥� or Democrats 鈥� could overturn a result by resorting to the courts or trying to appoint their own Electoral College electors, or some other questionable maneuver.

The 鈥渉anging chad鈥� Florida election of 2000 was an aberration. The chance that 2020 hinges on a recount, with candidates only half a percentage point apart in one or more decisive states, is only 5%, .

鈥淭he overwhelmingly likely outcome in November is that the winner will be recognized in short order and the margin will be great enough so that none of the loser鈥檚 fulminations will matter,鈥� 聽at聽Tufts University, in The Washington Post.