The idea factory in artificial intelligence
The future of the global economy has 鈥渂rightened,鈥� found the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 38 wealthy countries. The OECD鈥檚 economists cited many factors for a potentially better rate of growth. But one stands out: a rapid rise in the use of artificial intelligence to improve worker productivity.
The OECD cited a couple of examples: People who write for a living and now rely on AI are about 50% more efficient. Computer coders are 60% more efficient.
These gains are 鈥渉uge,鈥� Clare Lombardelli, OECD鈥檚 chief economist, said last week. Yet they don鈥檛 quite capture future gains, she added, as the world begins to use AI to change 鈥渨hat we do as well as how we do it.鈥�
That鈥檚 not all. The promise of AI to boost output per capita may help counterbalance a widespread worry that the future is hindered by a 鈥渟carcity of ideas,鈥� according to an OECD report in April. The reason: AI, which is innovative enough, has begun 鈥渢riggering an acceleration of innovation.鈥�
Companies adopting AI have produced higher numbers of patents and new products. In particular, Al will enhance basic research by quickly generating new hypotheses that will then yield new inventions. This will allow researchers to 鈥済o beyond the low hanging fruits of scientific discovery,鈥� the OECD found. AI 鈥渕ay continuously push out the productivity frontier.鈥�
Ideas 鈥渁re different from nearly all other goods in economics,鈥� said Charles Jones of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at a symposium last year. Unlike material goods or workers, ideas do not have rivals because they are 鈥渋nfinitely usable鈥� by any number of people.聽
鈥淚n the long run, growth in living standards is determined by growth in the worldwide number of people searching for ideas,鈥� he said. That number is determined by available talent, level of investments, migration patterns, and the size of the world population. As for AI鈥檚 potential to boost growth, he added, it is 鈥減erhaps the most uncertain but also has the greatest upside potential.鈥�
鈥淎rtificial intelligence appears to be a new general purpose technology, perhaps on par or even exceeding electricity and the semiconductor,鈥� he said.
For all its potential for misuse, AI at least has begun to alter how the world thinks about sources of inspiration. Or as economist Paul Romer, a winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, has noted, 鈥淲e consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered.鈥�
