海角大神

Paul Ryan is often identified as a deficit hawk. And while he regularly talks about the importance of balanced budgets, that鈥檚 not what听matters most to the GOP鈥檚 soon-to-be vice presidential nominee. Ryan鈥檚 holy grail is low taxes and small government, not fiscal balance.

Those priorities are clear in the听fiscal plan听Ryan wrote for the House Republicans last spring. Ryan, who chairs the House Budget Committee, was the architect of the House鈥檚 2013 fiscal framework鈥揳 plan that wouldn鈥檛 balance the budget until after 2040.

In fact, looking at the next 10 years鈥攖he budget window that really matters to Congress鈥擱yan鈥檚 deficit would be roughly identical to the Congressional Budget Office鈥檚 baseline. At the end of the period, in 2022, they鈥檇 be exactly the same. In other words, Congress would achieve the same amount of deficit reduction by doing nothing as it would by following Ryan鈥檚 blueprint.

To be sure, that is significant deficit reduction鈥搈uch more than President Obama has proposed听 and more than some think the economy can tolerate, at least in the near-term. Yet, the real story is in the level of spending and taxes that Ryan favors, not the gap between them.

CBO鈥檚听March, 2012 baseline听projects a deficit in 2022 of about 1.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product. Ryan鈥檚 鈥淧ath to Prosperity,鈥� which became the framework for the House budget, brought the 2022 deficit down to exactly the same 1.2 percent. No difference in the top line.

Now,听look at revenues and spending under the two scenarios. Under the CBO baseline, the federal government would collect 21.2 percent of GDP in taxes and other revenues and spend about 22.4 percent. The Ryan budget would collect far less鈥攁bout 18.7 percent of GDP in revenues鈥攁nd spend much less鈥攁bout 19.8 percent of GDP.

Thus, the deficit is the same but Ryan鈥檚 levels of taxes and spending would be dramatically lower than the CBO baseline.

Keep two very important issues in mind as you think about this: First, Ryan would collect that amount of revenue only by eliminating trillions of dollars of tax preferences, which he has not specified. In earlier fiscal plans, notably his听Roadmap for America鈥檚 Future, Ryan would have scrapped just about all tax preferences (though he would have made capital gains and dividends tax-free). But his latest plan did not describe which subsidies he鈥檇 eliminate.

While he proposed specific individual and corporate tax rates and the repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax, he left the heavy lifting of paying for it all to others.

Absent those offsetting tax increases, the Tax Policy Center听figures听Ryan鈥檚 2013 budget plan would generate revenues of only about 15.8 percent of GDP in 2022. Without those base-broadeners, Ryan鈥檚 deficit in 2022 would balloon to about 4 percent of GDP.

That would be higher that the projected deficit under听Obama鈥檚 fiscal plan, which CBO听projects听would be about 3 percent of GDP in 2022.

The second important issue to keep in mind is Medicare. Because Ryan (wisely in my view) would not begin changing Medicare until 2023, none of the cost savings from his plan to turn the program from a defined benefit system to a defined contribution program show up in those first 10 years. Over time, those Medicare changes would dramatically reduce federal spending, either by lowering overall costs or shifting those expenses to seniors, or both.

The other day, the听Washington Post鈥檚听Ezra Klein听noted听that Ryan was less of a deficit hawk than advertised, and he used as evidence Ryan鈥檚 votes in favor of the bank and auto bailouts and, earlier, his support of President George W. Bush鈥檚 Medicare Part D drug benefit鈥攁ll of which added significantly to the deficit.

Those are legitimate points, but you don鈥檛 need to dig up old Ryan votes to see where his priorities are. Just look closely at his 2013 budget.