海角大神

The biggest election news this week won鈥檛 be who wins the presidential debate Wednesday night. It will be how many new jobs were created in September, announced Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Rarely in the history has the monthly employment carried so much political significance. If the payroll survey is significantly more than 96,000 鈥�- the number of new jobs created in August 鈥� President Obama can credibly claim the job situation is improving. If significantly fewer than 96,000, Mitt Romney has the more credible claim that the economy isn鈥檛 improving.

August鈥檚 household survey showed the overall rate of unemployment to be 8.1 percent in August 鈥� not bad, relative to previous rates 鈥� but that was mainly because so many Americans had stopped looking for work. (You鈥檙e deemed 鈥渦nemployed鈥� only if you don鈥檛 have a full-time job and you鈥檙e looking for work; if you鈥檝e given up looking, you鈥檙e not counted.)聽

What happened to jobs in August or September 鈥� and what will happen in October (announced November 2, just days before Election Day) 鈥� have very little to do with what Obama did or didn鈥檛 do. Presidents have little to do with month-to-month changes in employment.

What鈥檚 more, the rest of the world isn鈥檛 cooperating: Much of Europe is in recession because it鈥檚 swallowed the 鈥渁usterity鈥� cool-aide. Japan is still a basket case. And China is slowing considerably.

In addition, Obama has had to grapple with a recalcitrant Republican congress, whose 鈥渘umber one goal,鈥� according to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, hasn鈥檛 been to create more jobs but to make sure Obama doesn鈥檛 get a second term.

Still, evidence is accumulating that the U.S. economy has stalled. According to Commerce Department data released late last week, the economy grew at an annualized rate of only 1.3 percent between April and June. That鈥檚 down from 2 percent in the first quarter of the year. Consumer spending rose聽in August just .1 percent, after adjusting for inflation.聽Orders for durable goods (cars, TVs, other long-lasting manufactured products) dropped 13 percent, the biggest monthly drop in three years.聽And because incomes grew less than spending, the savings rate dropped to 3.7 percent 鈥� the lowest since April.

Consumers say they鈥檙e more confident about the future 鈥� and that鈥檚 a key measure for how they鈥檙e likely to vote. But the disturbing reality is paychecks continue to shrink.聽Disposable income (the money left over after taxes) dropped 0.3 percent after adjusting for inflation. That鈥檚 the weakest reading since November.

America is still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. That鈥檚 because consumer spending is 70 percent of economic activity, and the nation鈥檚 vast middle class doesn鈥檛 have enough money to get the economy back on track. (The rich spend a much smaller proportion of their incomes, and their savings go around the world to wherever they can summon the highest return.)聽

Republicans have no answers. To the contrary, Romney鈥檚 reverse-Robin Hood economics would shrink the middle class even further, and put a huge burden on the poor.

But the economic policies Obama says he鈥檇 like to pursue in his second term aren鈥檛 nearly large or bold enough to do the job.

The median wage has been stuck in neutral for decades. Since the 1980s, almost all the gains from economic growth have gone to the top. The stagnation of middle-class wages was first masked by millions of women moving into paid work, thereby propping up household incomes. Then it was masked by massive household borrowing against rising home values.

But the bubble that burst in 2008 has removed both masks. The economy can鈥檛 fully recover until the middle class and the poor who aspire to join it have enough income to get it moving. For this to happen, they will need a larger share of the gains from economic growth.

Perhaps the President will be asked Wednesday night for his plan to accomplish this.聽