海角大神

The economy added only 120,000 jobs in March 鈥� down from the rate of more than 200,000 in each of the preceding three months. The rate of unemployment dropped from 8.3 to 8.2 percent mainly because fewer people were searching for jobs 鈥� and that rate depends on how many people are actively looking.

It鈥檚 way too early to conclude the jobs recovery is stalling, but there鈥檚 reason for concern.

Remember: Consumer spending is 70 percent of the economy. Employers won鈥檛 hire without enough sales to justify the additional hires. It鈥檚 up to consumers to make it worth their while.

But real spending (adjusted to remove price changes) this year hasn鈥檛 been going anywhere. It increased just .5 percent in February after an anemic .2 percent increase in January.

The reason consumers aren鈥檛 spending more is they don鈥檛 have the money. Personal income was up just .2 percent in February 鈥� barely enough to keep up with inflation. As a result, personal saving as a percent of disposable income tumbled to 3.7 percent in February from 4.3 percent in January.

Personal saving is聽now at its lowest level since March 2009.

American consumers, in short, are hitting a wall. They don鈥檛 dare save much less because their jobs are still insecure. They can鈥檛 borrow much more. Their home values are still dropping, and many are underwater 鈥� owing more on their homes than the homes are worth.

The economy has been growing but almost all the gains have gone to the very top. As I鈥檝e noted, this is the most lopsided recovery on record.

You will hear other theories about the hiring slowdown, but they don鈥檛 wash.

It鈥檚 not due to 鈥渦ncertainty鈥� about the economy. That鈥檚 a tautology 鈥� the economy鈥檚 future is always uncertain, especially when consumers don鈥檛 have the dough to keep it going.

It鈥檚 not because of fears about a European recession. Europe has been in the skids for some time now. Besides, the American economy doesn鈥檛 really depend on exports to Europe.

And it鈥檚 not about gas prices or the rise in healthcare insurance premiums. Both are up, but they鈥檝e been trending up for many months.

It鈥檚 because consumers鈥� pockets are almost empty.

We鈥檒l avoid a double-dip, but the most likely scenario in coming months is a continuation of the same 鈥� an anemic jobs recovery.

President Obama will claim the economy is improving 鈥� and, technically, it is. Growth this year will most likely average around 2 percent. The problem is, most Americans aren鈥檛 feeling it in their paychecks.

Mitt Romney will claim the economy is in terrible shape 鈥� and there will be enough evidence to justify his 鈥渃up-half-empty鈥� rhetoric.

But when it comes to explaining what鈥檚 really wrong with the economy, Romney is the perfect foil for Obama because Romney represents the richest of the rich 鈥� a man who raked in more than $20 million last year, and paid a tax rate of just 13.9 percent (lower than much of the middle class).

He made that money by buying up 鈥渦nder-performing鈥� companies 鈥� that is, companies that employed more people than they needed to, and carried less debt than was necessary to show big profits (interest on debt is deductible from company income). Romney鈥檚 firm, Bain Capital, made him and his colleagues fortunes by firing workers and loading companies up with debt.

And there鈥檚 America鈥檚 economic problem in a nutshell.

Romney and his ilk are doing wonderfully well, but the rest of the nation is still in deep trouble. Yet the U.S. economy can鈥檛 fully recover on the spending of millionaires.

The President has already announced that this election is about America鈥檚 surge toward ever-greater inequality. He鈥檚 right. And this painful recovery shows it.

It would be sadly ironic if Obama lost the election because the economy responded to widening inequality exactly as expected.