Initial unemployment claims drop 3,000 from last week
showed a continued decline to initial and an increase in continued unemployment claims as a declining trend shaped up for initial claims and traditional continued claims continued to trend down.
Seasonally adjusted 鈥渋nitial鈥� unemployment declined by 3,000 to 420,000 claims from last week鈥檚 revised 423,000 claims while seasonally adjusted 鈥渃ontinued鈥� claims increased by 22,000 resulting in an 鈥渋nsured鈥� unemployment rate of 3.3%.
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored 鈥渆xtended鈥� unemployment benefit programs (the 鈥渆xtended benefits鈥� and 鈥淓UC 2008鈥� from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.
Currently there are some 4.83 million people receiving federal 鈥渆xtended鈥� unemployment benefits.
Taken together with the latest 4.21 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are .
The shows the recent trend in initial non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims with the year-over-year percent change acting as a rough equivalent of a seasonally adjustment.
Historically, unemployment claims both 鈥渋nitial鈥� and 鈥渃ontinued鈥� (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.
The following chart shows 鈥減opulation adjusted鈥� continued claims (ratio of unemployment claims to the non-institutional population) and the unemployment rate since 1967.
tames the continued claims spike down a bit.
The following chart ( for larger version) shows 鈥渋nitial鈥� and 鈥渃ontinued鈥� claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967.
Also, has generally preceded comparable movements to the unemployment rate by 3 鈥� 8 months ( for larger version).
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