It's over, Johnny! Over!
The and a pronouncement that the 鈥淕reat Recession鈥�, the longest recession in the post-WWII era, ended over a year ago in June of 2009.
It鈥檚 important to recognize that the determination of the end of a recession speaks little about the quality of the subsequent recovery or of the future economic trends and merely cites the month and quarter that the overall, economy-wide contraction ended.
By determining the 鈥渢rough鈥� of the downturn, the NBER has identified the point at which the majority of the economic bleeding stopped鈥� what caused it to stop and what happens beyond that point is only now being fully understood.
These are extraordinary times indeed and one must not forget the tremendous effort that both the Federal Reserve and federal government have had to put forth JUST to establish this 鈥渢rough鈥� and the subsequent anemic economic trends.
Zero bound interest rates, quantitative easing, hundreds of billions of TARP, hundreds of billions of 鈥渟timulus鈥�, cash for clunkers and caulkers, billions for home purchases鈥� the list goes on and on鈥� all in the name of resuscitating our ailing economy.
So the latest 鈥渢rough鈥� is in but let鈥檚 not forget that aside from the insane peak speculative binge years of the housing/financial bubble, our macro-economy has been, more or less, in a trough for better than a decade now.
Declining jobs, flat to declining real wages, lower stock values, massive housing train wreck, widespread off-shoring, aging population and grotesquely larger government are the hallmarks of a grim period whose excesses cannot be righted by one or two recessions however severe.
The past can be studied and deciphered, categorized, labeled and organized but make no mistake, it鈥檚 the future you should be concerned about.
On that note, when interpreting the NBER release as indicating that 鈥渢echnically鈥� there can be NO 鈥渄ouble dip鈥�.
Liesman went on to say that 鈥渘ow that this recession is over鈥� the next recession would be a new recession鈥�.
Aside from completely forgetting that the prototype of 鈥渄ouble dips鈥�, the back-to-back recessions of 1980 and 1981-82, came in the form of two distinct and completely separate recessions, Liesman鈥檚 confidence in his 鈥渘o double dip鈥� declaration evoked a sense of propaganda on a day where the administration and its interpretation of economic events will be the focus on CNBC.
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