Remote work is here to stay 鈥� and it鈥檚 changing our lives
It鈥檚 a typical January morning somewhere in the desert outside Wickenburg, Arizona, and corporate strategy consultant Kenny D鈥橢velyn is heading for work. He kisses his wife goodbye, steps out of his 26-foot RV with the truck cab in front, squints into the still-rising sun, and walks 14 paces to a shiny aluminum horse trailer. He opens the door, pulls a chair across some straw, and sits at a makeshift desk. He fires up a computer. And he prepares 鈥� for the first but by no means last time this day 鈥� to Zoom.
It was not always thus. Until a year ago Mr. D鈥橢velyn went to work like most of us did 鈥� more than most of us did, actually, given his consultant鈥檚 life of spending four days of every week at a client鈥檚 site on the road. But then last March he was sent home. At which point he became an involuntary part of what might be the largest natural experiment in the history of work.
Says California-based corporate event producer Kelly Klopp, 鈥淥vernight, we went from full time in the office to working from home.鈥� As the show-runner for a scheduled three-day, 20,000-attendee conference set in Las Vegas, she suddenly had not just her own work habits to sort, but a whole enormous business problem to solve. (Upshot: she and her client pulled it off virtually.)
Why We Wrote This
What happens 鈥� to our jobs, organizations, communities 鈥� if the pandemic鈥檚 biggest business lesson has been to convince us that working from home is normal?
Remote work had been strongly increasing even before the pandemic, says demographer Wendell Cox 鈥� amounting to 5.3% of the workforce, three times its 2010 share. But by last May that number had ballooned to 42%, Stanford University reported 鈥� eight times pre-pandemic levels. And the homebound workers were liking it. An IBM poll found that 54% wanted to keep working from home post-pandemic, and 75% wanted the option of working from home occasionally.
鈥淲hat the pandemic made blazingly obvious,鈥� says a Manhattan entertainment lawyer, 鈥渋s that there is no need for a physical office.鈥� Only a complete lack of imagination, he says, kept the realization from dawning sooner. 鈥淏efore the pandemic, we wouldn鈥檛 have taken the question [of going virtual] seriously. It wouldn鈥檛 have seemed possible.鈥�
Mr. D鈥橢velyn wouldn鈥檛 have thought it possible, either. By January, though, he鈥檇 mastered the new remote-work drill: 5 to 7 hours of Zoom meetings a day, prep work early in the morning, follow-up work after dinner at night. Only thing is that in January, when he and his wife repaired for a month to a friend鈥檚 land in a rented RV, the day included horses. Up at 5:30, horses 鈥済rained and fed鈥� by 6, an hour of reading, then ... ride. By 8:30, out of the saddle and back to the desk 鈥� but even seven hours of Zooming feel different when a day starts like that. 鈥淥n the whole,鈥� says Mr. D鈥橢velyn, 鈥淚鈥檝e been ecstatic.鈥�
And yet, 鈥淚鈥檓 very over working from home right now.鈥� Live meetings used to energize him; Zoom meetings exhaust him. Work hours have expanded. 鈥淚鈥檓 not sure how sustainable it is.鈥�
The entertainment lawyer, despite having discovered the functional 鈥減ointlessness鈥� of the office, has nevertheless tired of home-working, too. 鈥淚 hadn鈥檛 realized how much the social aspect of work was important to me. I miss my work family!鈥�
So where has our massive work style experiment left us? Will we leave remote work behind as the pandemic ends, or perpetuate it, or craft it into something new?
Answer: It鈥檚 complicated. The pandemic has certainly sowed chaos on numerous economic levels 鈥� from supply-chain disruptions to job losses and an attendant worsening of economic inequalities. The rise of remote work is one shift that, while not necessarily helping all workers, is being greeted widely as positive and more than temporary.聽
The lasting impulse may be especially toward hybrid work modes, more than full-time work from home. But the growing detachment of jobs from geography is ushering in greater flexibility even as it tests and reshapes social bonds that so often have been forged at work in the past.
The rise of 鈥淶oom towns鈥�
鈥淭he most important outcome of the pandemic wasn鈥檛 that it taught聽you聽how to use Zoom, but rather that it forced聽everybody else聽to use Zoom,鈥� MIT economist David Autor told The Atlantic. 鈥淲e all leapfrogged over the coordination problem at the exact same time.鈥澛�
It鈥檚 hard to find a management expert who doesn鈥檛 judge the work-from-home experiment a resounding 鈥� and somewhat unexpected 鈥� success. A survey by the recruiting firm Robert Walters found that 77% of professionals believe they鈥檝e been equally or more effective when remote, and that 86% of employers plan to continue remote work 鈥渋n some form鈥� after the pandemic ends. A January survey by the consulting firm PwC revealed that employer satisfaction had risen even as the year dragged on, with 83% now assessing remote work successful for their company, up from 73% last June.
Wrote one top manager in an email posted by economist Tyler Cowen: 鈥淪peaking from personal experience as a white-collar Exec, the productivity gains for our highest value workers has been immense. The typical time-sucks and distractions of in-office work have been eliminated.... Mental focus on productive efforts is near constant. Perhaps most importantly, work travel is not happening.鈥�
But is remote work just an anomaly suited to crisis, or will it last? To know, it helps to consider what workers, company managers, and investors each want 鈥� and what they鈥檙e already doing.
Executives, in particular, seem to have made up their minds. Fewer than 1 in 5, according to the PwC survey, say they want their organizations to return to the office as it was pre-pandemic. Among managers, more than 80% are 鈥済rappling with how widely to extend remote work options.鈥� Meanwhile, companies including Twitter, Siemens, Shopify, Facebook, and State Bank of India have announced that they will make remote work permanent.
Some investors also appear sold. Among venture capitalists and venture-backed entrepreneurs, 74% now expect their companies to be majority or fully remote. And after venture-backed founders told surveyors before the pandemic that the 鈥渕ost beneficial location to start a company鈥� was San Francisco, this year they answered that the best location was none (鈥渄istributed or remote鈥�) 鈥� which received seven times the votes it scored a year earlier.
As for workers, Gallup recently found that they, too 鈥� Zoom-fatigue notwithstanding 鈥� would still rather work remotely than in their workplace, a preference they鈥檙e underscoring by voting with their feet, according to Joel Kotkin, a geographer who directs the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California.聽鈥淓ven before the pandemic,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ig cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago were losing population to suburbs, lower-cost metro areas, and less expensive states in what Zillow called 鈥榓 great reshuffling.鈥欌��
The trend has accelerated, Mr. Kotkin says. 鈥淚n just the past six months, New York City lost almost as many residents as it gained since 1950.鈥� He notes that a recent report by Upwork, a freelancing platform, suggests that 14 million to 23 million Americans are seeking to move to a less expensive and less crowded place. Welcome to the 鈥淶oom towns.鈥�
It may be that the remote-work phenomenon is an instance in which the incentives of workers, employers, and customers align.聽One example is the business model for the $241 billion management consulting industry in which Mr. D鈥橢velyn works.
For decades consultants would travel to client sites first thing Monday, work inside the client鈥檚 offices (and stay in nearby hotels and eat in nearby restaurants) until Thursday night, then travel home to spend Fridays in the consulting firm鈥檚 own building. All that client-site in-person work has been replaced by Zoom schedules like Mr. D鈥橢velyn鈥檚, along with all that travel. And somewhat to the surprise of all parties, when the work shifted online, its quality didn鈥檛 change. 鈥淲e discovered we can deliver the value without being there,鈥� says Mr. D鈥橢velyn.
Suddenly, consultants were freed from the burnout-inducing road trips; employers saw their talent pool expand (the incessant travel had always driven consultants from the business as they grew older and had families); and customers got a discount due to avoided hotel and food bills. Win, win, win. When incentives align, change tends to stick 鈥撀爀ven though consultants will still spend some time on the road.
Still, the pandemic experiment has also uncovered ample drawbacks to remote work. Virtual teams function well when their members know each other and projects are already underway, but they鈥檙e not so good at launching new projects or convening strangers.聽As economist Dr. Cowen , 鈥淰irtual [teams] simply can鈥檛 replicate the intellectual frisson of 鈥榞athering the smart people鈥� together, and this could damage performance and innovation.鈥�
And then there鈥檚 the fact that remote work can be lonely, not least because remote workers are alone. Every worker who spoke with the Monitor admitted to exhaustion. This despite their universal conviction that telecommuting works, and that they wanted to keep doing it some of the time.聽 聽 聽
It鈥檚 that phrase 鈥渟ome of the time鈥� that makes all the difference, experts increasingly say. Hence, the ascending idea of 鈥渉ybrid鈥� remote work 鈥� a work pattern mixing both office hours and home hours.
In surveys, both employees and leaders support it. According to PwC, over half of employees (55%) would prefer to be remote at least three days a week. Most executives (68%), on the other hand, say a typical employee should be in the office at least three days a week.
The market research firm Forrester predicts a 60-30-10 split among organizations: post-pandemic, 60% will be hybrid, 30% will be all-in-the-office, and 10% will be all-remote.
Which is a very long way from where we were a year ago.
A revival for social connections near home?
Experts can point to only one other work style 鈥渆xperiment鈥� like the one caused by COVID-19, though its sample size in comparison was minuscule. When a 2011 earthquake demolished Christchurch, New Zealand, the entire community turned immediately to telework. Then the city rebuilt, renewing its stock of office space. Yet years later a study revealed that Christchurch鈥檚 workers continued to operate remotely, away from their freshly available workplaces. 鈥淲hen [the crisis] was over,鈥� said a researcher, 鈥渢hey didn鈥檛 go back.鈥�
If the expert consensus proves right, Americans won鈥檛 go back, either.聽
鈥淎s remote working has boomed during COVID-19,鈥� summarizes a study by the University of Utah, 鈥渢he rise in the number of people working from home has prompted many to reconsider where they wish to live.鈥� Which means, as the survey data already indicate, that as many as 40% of office workers could scatter outward from the name-brand cities to places more spacious and affordable. Maybe some of the time even to an RV surrounded by mesquite and sky, as Mr. D鈥橢velyn did for a spell. Maybe to a place with horses.
A shift of workers to the periphery聽would聽be an economic boon to the places they go. The Zoom towns and suburbs and countryside聽would, under this scenario,聽profit from聽the migration of skilled jobs: Economists estimate that聽one skilled job generates 2.5 more jobs providing local goods and services. (Studies say tech workers generate an even higher multiple.)
Of course, working remotely will change not only where the work is done (and where people can live while doing it), but what work feels like, and what it can be relied on to provide in daily life. If people aren鈥檛 at the office, they鈥檒l have to find alternative sources for the human interaction they used to find there.聽
The economist , 鈥淎s life at work [when remote] will be less social, people will have to get more of their socializing from elsewhere. So people will choose where they live more based on family, friends, leisure activities, and non-work social connections. Churches, clubs, and shared interest socializing will increase in importance. People will also pick where to live more based on climate, price, and views. Beach towns will boom, and the largest cities will lose.鈥�
So workers will be more dispersed, and more of their working hours will be spent where they live instead of elsewhere in an office. The question is: Could all this lead to a聽鈥渞eset鈥� of the locus of community in America?
Might the center of gravity shift at least somewhat from the office to the neighborhood 鈥� back, in a sense, to something closer to a pre-industrial model? What might it mean for our culture if the human contact that offices used to provide is replaced by closer-to-home human connections? And how might that affect the health of local communities and even levels of societal trust?
Mr. Kotkin, whose work has involved researching these dynamics for decades, answers by saying, 鈥淧laces change people.鈥� And people change places. 鈥淚 think we鈥檙e going to see Americans reinvent themselves, as they鈥檝e always done, as villagers,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 think they鈥檙e craving that. Their attention will be on their local communities in ways it wasn鈥檛 when they left that community every day for work. I think we鈥檒l see more civic involvement. I think we鈥檒l see new forms of local affiliation. We鈥檙e villagers, basically, because we thrive on human-scale environments, and interdependence; things feel different when you know you can rely on your neighbor for help.鈥�
Here Mr. Kotkin quotes Lenin: 鈥淭here are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.鈥澛�
Perhaps generations from now, he suggests, there will be historians who conclude that this pandemic year has been filled with such weeks 鈥� and that the world ahead of us will make plain the size of the change.
