海角大神

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Britain and the United States are helping citizens to leave South Sudan this week, as violence that sparked from an alleged coup attempt in the capital on Sunday spread beyond Juba. Farther north today, armed forces reportedly lost control of the town of Bor to mutinous troops, deepening concern that warnings about civil war in the two-year-old nation could become a reality.

鈥淭he scenario many feared but dared not contemplate looks frighteningly possible: South Sudan, the world鈥檚 newest state (see map here), is now arguably on the cusp of a civil war,鈥� the International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a press statement this week.

An estimated 500 people have been killed since fighting within the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) army broke out over the weekend in what the government calls an attempted coup by soldiers loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar, who was removed from his position in July. Mr. Machar denied the allegations on Wednesday.

Choul Laam, chief of staff for the secretary general of the ruling SPLM, countered the idea that violence started as a coup attempt against President Salva Kiir, saying the fighting broke out when the presidential guard tried to "disarm members of the guard who were from the minority Nuer tribe," reports the Associated Press.

Fighting has died down in Juba. The United Nations, however,聽reports that some 20,000 civilians have fled to two UN compounds seeking shelter and humanitarian relief.

President Kiir flushed his cabinet in July, including Machar, and observers worried it could lead to more widespread tensions. According to Al Jazeera:

Rival Army units initiated the fighting, but the violence began targeting civilians of different ethnic groups, according to the ICG.

Kiir is a member of the Dinka ethnic group, which is the largest in South Sudan. Meanwhile, the Nuer group, to which Machar belongs, has accused the Dinka of 鈥渕onopolizing everything from politics to the Army,鈥� reports Al Jazeera.

In Bor, located about 125 miles north of Juba in the volatile state of Jonglei, "There was shooting last night .. .we don't have information on casualties or the displaced in the town, as operations are ongoing," army spokesman Philip Aguer told reporters. He added that soldiers had lost control of Bor to mutinous troops led by Gen. Peter Gadet Yaak.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Bor was the launching point in 1983 for a civil war, in what was then Sudan, that lasted for more than two decades.

鈥淭his is a political crisis, and urgently needs to be dealt with through political dialogue. There is a risk of this violence spreading to other states, and we have already seen some signs of this,鈥� said UN Secretary General Ban ki-moon.

Kiir has donned military fatigues instead of his trademark suit and black cowboy hat this week, which observers fear could be sending a message that he is siding with one fighting faction over the other.

"By calling Machar a traitor, [Kiir] makes it very, very difficult for Machar to figure out a way to survive under the current government," Eric Reeves, a Sudan analyst at Smith College in Northampton, Mass., told The Wall Street Journal. Kiir鈥檚 rhetoric has 鈥渞atcheted up tensions," according to Mr. Reeves.

鈥淭he blurred lines between ... institutions, senior political figures and ethnic communities鈥� as well as wide-scale arms proliferation鈥攎ake the current situation particularly volatile,鈥� the ICG said in a statement this week.

When oil-rich South Sudan gained its independence, former deputy culture minister, Jok Madut Jok, likened it to a 鈥渇our-legged animal鈥� in an interview with Al Jazeera. But South Sudan鈥檚 鈥渓egs are broken,鈥� Mr. Jok said, acknowledging potential problems ahead.

A group of East African politicians is scheduled to travel to South Sudan today to serve as mediators, reports The New York Times.