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UN envoy to Syria visits region to resurrect cease-fire efforts

The United Nations' envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, visited Beirut today touting a fresh cease-fire for Syria. Damascus said it could support the plan, but said rebel disunity is a key obstacle.

By Whitney Eulich , Staff writer

鈥 A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

United Nations special envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi arrived in Beirut today as part of a tour of the region, advocating a fresh ceasefire in Syria pegged to the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha later this month.聽However, like plans put forward by his predecessor, Kofi Annan, there is doubt whether the regional, national, and rebel support necessary for success is there.

Mr. Brahimi asked Iranian officials to help broker a truce earlier this week, and yesterday the Syrian government offered 鈥渢he slenderest of hopes鈥 when a spokesman said it was studying the proposed plan, reports the Telegraph.

鈥淚n order to succeed in any initiative, it takes two sides,鈥 said Jihad Maqdisi, a Syrian foreign ministry spokesman.

A Western diplomat told Reuters that a ceasefire 鈥渃ould open the door to something more sustained" in Syria. "But it's not clear how realistic this idea is. Annan tried and failed to do the same thing," the diplomat said.

Though there are plenty who say the ceasefire is improbable, if not impossible 鈥 all international efforts to date to end the 19-month conflict in Syria have failed, with both rebels and the Syrian government ignoring previous ceasefires 鈥 some say a pause in the violence that has killed between 20,000 and 30,000 people according to the UN and rebel groups is desperately needed. Kaveh Afrasiabi, author of 鈥淎fter Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy,鈥 writes in an commentary for the Asia Times:

The UN Department for Peacekeeping Operations told Brahimi it could put together a monitoring group of up to 3,000 people who could potentially separate the rebels and the regime in order to ensure fighting doesn鈥檛 pick up again after the ceasefire, reports Reuters. However, sending any monitors would require a UN Security Council mandate, and no Western countries have pledged troops yet. A聽previous observer mission to the country was disbanded because violence prevented them from being able to get out and monitor the situation.聽

鈥淭he Syrian side is interested in exploring this option,鈥 Syria鈥檚 Mr. Maqdisi said in reference to the ceasefire proposal, also noting the government was waiting to hear the results of Brahimi鈥檚 tour, The Telegraph reports. He will also visit opposition backers Saudi Arabia and Turkey and Syrian regime supporter Iran, as well as Iraq and, as of today, Lebanon.

It is unclear whether Brahimi will travel to Damascus after Beirut, reports the Associated Press.

Syria wants to know if influential countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are on board, and if they will pressure rebel groups 鈥渢hat they host and finance and arm鈥 to abide by such a ceasefire, said Maqdisi.

President Bashar al-Assad鈥檚 regime has accepted two international ceasefire proposals in the past, only to intensify the conflict, according to the Telegraph.

The divisions among rebel groups are another obstacle to the regime putting faith in a ceasefire: It has no guarantee that because one rebel group agrees to the proposal, the others will as well.聽There are myriad rebel groups, many of which work autonomously and without information sharing, according to a separate AP story,聽and there is no unified leadership聽among the rebels.

Today, state-run newspaper Al-Thawra said the biggest challenge to a potential ceasefire is the rebels' lack of unity.

"There is the state, represented by the government and the army on one front, but who is on the other front?" reads an editorial in the newspaper, according to AP.

Others have echoed concerns about the disjointed rebel front, but still say intervention is necessary. Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum writes that by focusing on concrete problems, these fragmented groups have an opportunity to unite, and outside nations like the United States have an opportunity to help:

Two rebel groups announced yesterday that they have agreed to set up a joint leadership in order to meet the international calls for unity, according to a separate Reuters report.

Even if a unified rebel front can be created, outside powers also present hurdles. The UN Security Council has been deadlocked over how to move forward in the war-torn country for months. Russia and China have vetoed three UN resolutions thus far.

"There will never be unity inside Syria unless the countries supporting the revolt agree because each group is supported and backed by (one) country," a rebel source told Reuters.

"Now the countries are becoming nervous and the Syrian issue has become bigger than they expected and almost out of control."