海角大神

鈥� A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

The US confirmed yesterday afternoon that Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan cleric and top Al Qaeda leader, was killed in northwest Pakistan.聽

After initial anonymous confirmations from US officials, White House spokesman Jay Carney confirmed Mr. Libi's death, saying that "there is no clear successor" and that it brings Al Qaeda "closer to its ultimate demise than ever."聽

Many of the other Al Qaeda figures killed in drone strikes in the area were relatively unknown figures, but Libi聽became a well-known figure after escaping from US custody at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan in 2005. He聽was "a virtual ambassador for global jihad," making regular videos, according to The New York Times. After Osama bin Laden's death, he was moved up to Al Qaeda's deputy, behind leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. He had a $1 million bounty and was rumored to have been killed once before, in December 2009 in South Waziristan.

Bill Roggio, the managing editor of the Long War Journal website, cautioned that until Al Qaeda issues a statement acknowledging his death, it shouldn't be considered a sure thing. He聽describes Libi as "one of Al Qaeda's most prolific propagandists."

While his death is confirmed, how much of a blow this will deal to Al Qaeda is contested. One American official told the Times:聽鈥淶awahri will be hard-pressed to find any one person who can readily step into Abu Yahya鈥檚 shoes. In addition to his gravitas as a longstanding member of A.Q.鈥檚 leadership, Abu Yahya鈥檚 religious credentials gave him the authority to issue fatwas, operational approvals and guidance to the core group in Pakistan and regional affiliates. There is no one who even comes close in terms of replacing the expertise A.Q. has just lost.鈥�

Mr. Roggio acknowledges that Libi has been a top figure for the group, but writes that Al Qaeda has been able to replace other leaders killed by the US. One US intelligence official told him Al Qaeda did not rely on Libi alone.聽"Libi was an important member, without a doubt, but he didn't operate in a vacuum," he said, according to Roggio.聽

Dan Murphy writes in 海角大神 that Libi's death 鈥� and at least 1,800 others since 2004 鈥� might not even be best for the US in the long run.

Additionally, the centrality of Pakistan's lawless tribal region to Al Qaeda and other militant groups聽is declining as a result of drone deaths like Libi's, The New York Times reports. Al Qaeda affiliates in Somalia and Yemen, where the US does not act as freely, are becoming more active.

That it took almost 24 hours for the US to confirm that it was Libi who was killed in the strike indicates how limited the United States' intelligence presence is on the ground in northwest Pakistan, Bloomberg Businessweek reports, noting that it often relies on surveillance of phone calls, text messages, e-mails, and jihadist websites, which can be unreliable.

The delay in confirmation also highlights the fact that the strikes are often carried out without the US being certain that it is targeting the person it means to target.聽