海角大神

Europe has been blunt over Russia's military intervention in Ukraine: British Foreign Secretary William Hague, for one, called it the 鈥渂iggest crisis in Europe in the 21st century.鈥�

His words come as the West scrambles to force聽Russian聽President Vladimir Putin to back down.聽Members of the Group of Eight on Sunday pulled out of talks that slated for June in Sochi, US聽Secretary of State John Kerry threatened visa bans and asset freezes for Russia, and聽EU foreign ministers are meeting today to discuss options.

But despite tough rhetoric, some experts say that聽ultimately there is very little that Europe can do, and that what might appear as caution might simply be a thorough understanding of how complicated the politics at their doorstep is.聽Europeans are expected to favor dialogue with 鈥� but not direct threats to 鈥� Moscow.

"Throwing Putin out of the G8 is nothing, and what else can be done? Sending NATO in? That's not possible. Half of Ukraine or more does not want NATO in," says聽Alina Mungiu-Pippidi,聽who teaches democratization and policy analysis at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin and has studied Crimea and Ukraine.

鈥淯kraine is divided. Perhaps in time the EU can help a part of it become European. All of it, including Crimea, [that] will never happen, regardless how tough we talk to Putin.聽Maybe Europeans understand [this] and this is why they do not rush into this."

The EU and Ukraine

It was the EU's offer of a trade and association agreement, which then-President Victor Yanukovych rejected under pressure from Russia, that set off protests in November. The EU was caught off-guard by the pro-Western marches, as well as Russia鈥檚 game of hardball with Ukraine and its most recent decision to send in troops, risking a military conflict.

EU policy toward Ukraine has been hampered from the beginning by competing views of where Ukraine belongs. While some of the 28 member states clearly want to integrate the post-Soviet country into the bloc, for others it has not been a priority, especially in an era of economic crisis and EU enlargement fatigue.

EU diplomacy has also been complicated by EU dependence on the Russian market, particularly its energy resources. Russia is the EU鈥檚 third-largest trading partner, after China and the US.

Divided views on foreign policy is a hallmark of a bloc with 28 members. On Ukraine and Russia, countries like Poland and those like Portugal have widely divergent attitudes about how important the 鈥渆ast鈥� is to Europe.

But that聽is changing, as Russia鈥檚 actions demand European cohesion.聽As protests turned deadly in Ukraine, Europe quickly came together to help put an end to the standoff, and last week promised financial aid, even though the question of how much aid the country needs and when has been temporarily overshadowed.

Now they are coming together to respond to the risk of a military showdown. 鈥淧utin is driving them together,鈥� says聽Daniel Keohane,聽head of strategic affairs in the Brussels office of the Spanish think tank FRIDE.

Germany as mediator

Key to that response, he says, is Germany.

The powerhouse of Europe, Germany has been reluctant to engage in foreign policy generally since World War II and has traditionally been cautious with Russia because of its dependence on its gas. But Germany is out front trying to de-escalate the crisis in a way that acknowledges that any solution in Ukraine requires that it have a constructive relationship both with Russia and the EU.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier arrived in Brussels today for an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers underlining a diplomatic response to this crisis that he called the worst since the fall of the Berlin Wall. 鈥淭he threat of a division of Europe is real again," he said, according to Agence France-Presse. "Now is the time for diplomacy."

"Diplomacy does not mean weakness, but is more needed than ever to prevent us from being drawn into the abyss of military escalation,鈥� he added.聽聽

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who spoke with Mr. Putin Sunday, suggested a 鈥渃ontact group鈥� to set up dialogue in the crisis, even as she underlined Russia鈥檚 violation of an international accord to respect Ukraine鈥檚 sovereignty.

The EU could threaten sanctions but its main focus is on mediation.

Europeans know that no matter what comes out of the crisis, Russia will still be there, and can still call shots, no matter how 鈥渟trong a EU stance is,鈥� says Mr. Keohane. 鈥淵ou cannot resolve Ukraine without Russian cooperation. That is the bind we are in.鈥�