海角大神

This morning in Tripoli a group of armed men marched into the Hotel Corinthia and marched out again with Libya鈥檚 prime minister, Ali Zeidan. Reportedly, no one聽鈥� not hotel security, not Mr. Zeidan鈥檚 own bodyguards 鈥撀爐ried to stop them.

Zeidan was released unharmed several hours later. His captors appear to be disgruntled militiamen who accuse Libya鈥檚 government of condoning a raid by US commandos last Saturday in Tripoli.

But this morning鈥檚 drama also highlights the deep fissures among Libya鈥檚 various armed groups and political factions, and the singular weakness of its top civilian leader.

鈥淶eidan has been weak for quite a long time,鈥� says John Hamilton, a Libya expert and contributing editor at聽African聽Energy magazine in Britain. 鈥淟ibya is polarized, and he鈥檚 become a focus of discontent.鈥�

On the face of it, Zeidan boasts impressive credentials. A former diplomat under Muammar Qaddafi, he defected in 1980 and fled to Geneva. There he helped create the National Front for the Salvation of Libya, a voice of resistance for three decades.

A coalition of parties that stressed nuts-and-bolts pragmatism over ideology took first place in the first post-Qaddafi election last year, while the Islamist Justice and Construction Party (JCP) came a distant second.聽But most seats 鈥� 120 of 200 in total 鈥� were reserved for independents, many of whom have since clustered around the two main party blocs. As politics has progressed, fault lines have emerged.

Stubborn militias

The GNC鈥檚 initial choice for prime minister, Mustafa Abu Shagur, was swiftly removed in a no-confidence vote amid griping that his cabinet appointments failed to represent Libya鈥檚 regions.聽Zeidan was voted in to replace him and took office last November. Since then, however, Libya鈥檚 government has struggled to assert its authority.

Most militias have refused to lay down their weapons. While some have accepted nominal government control in return for pay, even they break ranks at times to serve private agendas.

Increasingly, force of arms has impinged on politics. Last spring militiamen parked outside government buildings to force the passage of a law to bar Qaddafi-era officials from public office.

More recently, rowdy protestors 鈥� sometimes armed 鈥� have staged strikes and sit-ins at oil installations, severely denting this year鈥檚 oil output. Libya鈥檚 borders remain porous, crime is rising, and the country is awash with guns.

Politicians increasingly blame Zeidan for Libya鈥檚 dysfunction. Last month the JCP called for confidence in him to be put to a vote.

鈥淚f you heard the GNC members talk, you鈥檇 think it would be easy to get the 120 votes needed for a vote of no-confidence,鈥� says Abdelmonem Lohashy, a former independent member of the GNC.

Lose-lose

Mr. Lohashy acknowledges that Zeidan came into office with the deck largely stacked against him.聽鈥淏ut the qualities you need to lead people, I don鈥檛 see them in Mr. Zeidan,鈥� he says.

Meanwhile, Zeidan has also managed to alienate Libya鈥檚 gun-toting element simply through representing the notion of a central state, says Mr. Hamilton.

鈥淣ot that he鈥檚 able to deliver it,鈥� Hamilton says. 鈥淏ut all these groups, the last thing they want is to聽see a strong聽government emerge.鈥�

A US raid in Tripoli last weekend to capture an alleged Al Qaeda bombing planner appears to have prompted some of Libya鈥檚 gunmen to take action against Zeidan.

On Saturday聽US forces snatched Nazih al-Ruqai, better known as Abu Anas al-Liby, as he returned home from a mosque. Mr. Al-Liby is accused of involvement in devastating bombings of US embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam in 1998.

Libya鈥檚 government has insisted that it was unaware the raid would take place. But Zeidan鈥檚 abductors this morning appeared convinced otherwise.

鈥淸Zeidan鈥檚] arrest comes after鈥�[Kerry] said the Libyan government was aware of the operation,鈥� a spokesman for the abductors told Reuters, referring to US Secretary of State John Kerry.

It鈥檚 unclear what statement, if any, by Mr. Kerry the abductors may have had in mind. While unnamed US officials have told the New York Times that Libya鈥檚 government was notified of the raid, Kerry is not known to have made any such claim.

Meanwhile, a flurry of confusing and sometimes contradictory statements were issued from sources in Tripoli this morning while Zeidan remained incommunicado.聽His abductors initially said they were attached to the Operations Room, a militia coordination structure,聽then denied the Operations Room鈥檚 involvement at the behest of other groups, Reuters reported.

The justice ministry denied the abductors鈥� claim to have received an official warrant for Zeidan鈥檚 arrest, according to the BBC, citing Libyan state TV.

The public relations chaos is itself illustrative of broader disorder in Libya, says Hamilton.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no central authority,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his allows people to make their own claims and exert themselves in this way.

By early afternoon Zeidan was released, apparently through the intervention of officials and militia groups.

Afterward, he addressed his cabinet in remarks carried on TV, reports Reuters. While his words鈥� exact context aren鈥檛 clear from reports, their potential application is broad:

鈥淟ibyans need wisdom鈥� not escalation鈥� to deal with this situation.鈥�