海角大神

Never before in the 34-year history of Iran鈥檚 Islamic Republic have its officials sent more signals in less time about a desire to reengage with the US and the outside world.

President Hasan Rouhani defined a policy of 鈥渃onstructive engagement鈥� in a 鈥渃hanged鈥� world, and urged fellow leaders to 鈥渟eize the opportunity presented by Iran鈥檚 recent election鈥� in today's Washington Post. Days earlier, he vowed that Iran would 鈥渘ever鈥� pursue nuclear weapons and called war 鈥渨eakness鈥� in an interview with NBC News.

Even Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week said Iran would show 鈥渉eroic flexibility,鈥� though it would take care not forget the 鈥渙pponent 鈥� and what his real goal is.鈥�

But can the promise of those words be realized, even in part? As Iran pushes its charm offensive in a bid to ease crippling US-led sanctions and end the stalemate over its controversial nuclear program, analysts note several points that may shape future diplomatic efforts:

1. 鈥楤ig for big鈥�

鈥淎fter 10 years of back-and-forth, what all sides don鈥檛 want in relation to our nuclear file is clear,鈥� Mr. Rouhani writes in the Post.

鈥淏ut to move beyond impasses, whether in relation to Syria, my country鈥檚 nuclear program or its relations with the United States, we need to aim higher,鈥� writes Rouhani. 鈥淲e all need to muster the courage to start conveying what we want 鈥� clearly, concisely and sincerely 鈥撀燼nd to back it up with the political will to take necessary action.鈥�

To do that means transforming the cumbersome and stalled negotiating process between Iran and the P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) from its current focus on incremental steps aimed at building confidence, but with no defined end state.

鈥淲e have got to be a lot more creative than we have been prepared to be鈥�. We have to go 鈥榖ig for big,鈥欌�� says George Perkovich, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The baby-step model 鈥渋s totally self-defeating at this point [because] the Iranians want to know where the road ends, not where it starts. Because, is it a dark alley where they are going to get mugged halfway in it? Or does it actually lead to a place that is valued by them?鈥� asks Mr. Perkovich, speaking Thursday in New York on a panel organized by The Iran Project, a group of former officials and experts who have pushed for US-Iran dialogue for more than a decade.

聽2. Mutual acceptance

聽High on the list of grievances between the US and Iran is an unwillingness to accept the other鈥檚 presence or influence in the Middle East. Iran has for decades led an 鈥渁xis of resistance鈥� against US and Israeli interests; American officials until recent years went out of their way to avoid referring by name to Iran鈥檚 post-1979 revolutionary government.

鈥淲hat is the deal that permits Iran to accept the United States鈥� position in the region, the legitimacy of our position in the region, and we accept the legitimacy of Iran鈥檚 position in the region?鈥� asks former US Amb. Frank Wisner, also speaking on The Iran Project panel.

The solution would require the US to 鈥渂alance our way forward into the future,鈥� says Ambassador Wisner, adding that at the meetings at the UN next week, 聽鈥渨e鈥檙e going to see a lot clearer the parameters of what might be possible.鈥澛燫ouhani addresses the General Assembly Tuesday, the same day as President Obama.

Says Wisner: 鈥淲e won鈥檛 get to [Syria talks in] Geneva without Iran, we won鈥檛 get surety for our ships and sailors in the [Persian] Gulf, we won鈥檛 get a framework for managing Afghanistan, we won鈥檛 get a package of understandings that can deal with Israeli sensitivities 鈥� we won鈥檛 get any of these if we don鈥檛 have a core set of understandings with Iran.鈥�

3.聽 The challenge in the US

But getting there will be far from easy. The US Congress has imposed increasingly harsh sanctions, which today target the spectrum of Iran鈥檚 economy, from limiting oil exports 鈥撀爓hich have dropped in two years from 2.4 million barrels per day to below 1 million 鈥� to blocking central bank and financial transactions.

Analysts often say Congress is 鈥渋n love鈥� with sanctions, a default policy that lawmakers may believe will force Iran to capitulate. Iran has grated beneath this US carrot-and-stick approach, saying there are too many sticks, and carrots anyway are fit only for 鈥渄onkeys.鈥�

Nasser Hadian-Jazy, who teaches international relations at Tehran University, expects relatively quick progress on a nuclear deal, but is less optimistic about any immediate US-Iran breakthrough.

The reason? 鈥淎 political structure exists in both countries which involves the hostile relationship,鈥� and many of those who benefit are in positions of power and will 鈥渃reate all sorts of impediments,鈥� says Mr. Hadian-Jazy in an interview.聽

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鈥淛ust to see a US senator or congressman say something positive about Iran, he or she is going to pay a cost; but if they say negative things, they aren鈥檛 going to pay a cost for it,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t is exactly the same in Iran: If any member of the Iranian parliament says anything positive about the US or negotiation or improving the relationship, he or she is going to pay a cost. But [not] if they say a negative thing.鈥澛�

Indeed, the idea of regime change in Iran still motivates some US lawmakers.聽

鈥淭he habit in Washington of seeing an enemy and committing all resources and attitudes toward it is going to be difficult to overcome,鈥� says William Luers, a former senior US official and ambassador who directs The Iran Project.

鈥淚f the United States is capable of changing attitudes 鈥� and it鈥檚 not clear, given the congressional attitudes that have developed over the sanctions issue, that the president will be able to do what he probably has to do 鈥撀燵then] we鈥檙e at the edge of something that could be very important,鈥� says Ambassador Luers, also speaking in New York.

4.聽 The nuclear conundrum

Iranian officials have stated repeatedly that they do not want nuclear weapons, and even that they adhere to a past religious ruling by Ayatollah Khamenei rejecting such arms.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 the key to the solution,鈥� says Perkovich from Carnegie.

The watchwords should be 鈥渄istrust and verify,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e know that the United States does not trust the Iranians, but what we don鈥檛 generally perceive is that the Iranians distrust us about a thousand times more, and that the leader has reasons for it.鈥�

In his Washington Post piece, Rouhani writes that, 鈥淎 constructive approach to diplomacy doesn鈥檛 mean relinquishing one鈥檚 rights.鈥� For Iran, he writes, mastering the atomic fuel cycle 鈥渋s as much about diversifying our energy resources as it is about who Iranians are as a nation, our demand for dignity and respect and our consequent place in the world.鈥澛�

Still the US doesn鈥檛 trust Iran鈥檚 rejection of nuclear weapons, says Perkovich, 鈥渟o the solution is going to be for them to provide enough transparency that verifies in fact that they don鈥檛 want nuclear weapons 鈥� that goes way beyond [uranium] enrichment and fuel cycles.鈥�

Likewise, adds Perkovich, there is a burden of proof on the US side: 鈥淲e say we don鈥檛 seek regime change but rather behavior change, and that they can have a peaceful nuclear program. They don鈥檛 believe that鈥�. So we鈥檙e going to have to verify to them that we don鈥檛 seek regime change, [and] the obvious way to do that is pulling off the sanctions that have put the most pressure on the regime.鈥�

5.聽 Building on mutual interests

Iran鈥檚 new president notes shared strategic interests with the US, and that 鈥渢he world has changed,鈥� such that it is 鈥渘o longer a zero-sum game,鈥� but one in which 鈥渃ooperation and competition often occur simultaneously. Gone is the age of blood feuds. World leaders are expected to lead in turning threats into opportunities,鈥� writes Rouhani in the Post.

He also states that there are limits to using kinetic force. A decade and two wars after 9/11, 鈥淎l Qaeda and other militant extremists continue to wreak havoc,鈥� while daily bloodshed continues in Iraq and Afghanistan, writes Rouhani. 鈥淭he unilateral approach, which glorifies brute force and breeds violence, is clearly incapable of solving issues we all face, such as terrorism and extremism.鈥�

The first example could be Syria, where Rouhani pledged his government鈥檚 鈥渞eadiness鈥� support dialogue for a solution. Both sides fear the rise of jihadi Islamist fighters among rebel ranks, even though Iran and the US back opposing sides on the battlefield.

聽鈥淚ran鈥檚 in Syria. It is foolish of us to imagine that you are going to see a way through the Syrian crisis today without the involvement of the Iranians,鈥� says Wisner. 鈥淚t鈥檚 an accommodation that behooves us as Americans to take on and be aware of and be ready to undertake.鈥�

Please follow Scott Peterson on Twitter at @peterson__scott聽