海角大神

The sudden detention of Istanbul鈥檚 popular mayor, Ekrem 陌mamo臒lu, on fraud and 鈥渟upporting terrorism鈥� charges early Wednesday had one primary beneficiary: Turkey鈥檚 long-standing President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, bidding to extend his rule through a third decade.

Mr. 陌mamo臒lu was arrested just days before he was to be formally named the main opposition candidate in Turkey鈥檚 next presidential election, in 2028. It caps a monthslong legal campaign against figures who could threaten the firm grip on power of Mr. Erdo臒an and his Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The result of such a dramatic step is an even deeper slide toward authoritarian rule in Turkey, where an entire generation knows no other leader than Mr. Erdo臒an 鈥� yet where his lock on politics is increasingly rejected by voters.

The move also jeopardizes Turkey鈥檚 warming ties with Europe, where its NATO membership has gained importance amid the war in Ukraine, as the United States under Donald Trump pivots toward Russia.

Mr. 陌mamo臒lu鈥檚 Republican People鈥檚 Party 鈥� which last year delivered the AKP its first ballot box defeat during Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 tenure, in nationwide municipal elections 鈥� on Wednesday decried the arrest as 鈥渁 coup against our next president.鈥�

On Wednesday and Thursday, thousands of protesters defied a four-day ban on marches in Istanbul, chanting, 鈥淪houlder to shoulder against fascism.鈥�

鈥淭his feels like [Turkey] transitioning into a new model ... a different model of autocracy,鈥� says Asl谋 Ayd谋nta艧ba艧, a visiting fellow and Turkey expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

鈥淚 think it is telling us that we are getting closer to what we see in Iran or Russia: not just a more illiberal and unfair playing field, but [where] there is a desire to control the opposition as well,鈥� says Ms. Ayd谋nta艧ba艧.

鈥淭he effort to disqualify him is effectively putting him behind bars 鈥� and that is a tougher model of autocracy than what Turkey is used to,鈥� she says. 鈥淭his is also a sign of desperation, almost a tacit recognition [by Mr. Erdo臒an] that you may not be able to prevail in an electoral landscape if you don鈥檛 eliminate your rivals.鈥�

Erdo臒an鈥檚 creeping authoritarianism

Mr. Erdo臒an and his AKP have ruled Turkey with a creeping authoritarianism that has seen surges of antidemocratic actions. Among them were a crackdown after 2013 Gezi Park protests, and the aftermath of a 2016 coup attempt that witnessed the arrests of tens of thousands of people 鈥� military officers and civilians alike 鈥� in a broad purge of state institutions.

Constitutionally, Mr. Erdo臒an can鈥檛 run for another term as president. But allies have suggested that the constitution may be amended to extend his rule 鈥� though that would require a supermajority, and buy-in from smaller parties 鈥� or that elections could be called early, which would give Mr. Erdo臒an a chance to run again.

Justice Minister Y谋lmaz Tun莽 said the judiciary had acted independently when it detained Mr. 陌mamo臒lu, and that suggestions of a 鈥渃oup鈥� were 鈥渆xtremely dangerous.鈥�

That didn鈥檛 wash with one Istanbul protester.

鈥淚 think these are all political decisions, and I am sure that a large part of the country thinks so,鈥� the man told the BBC. 鈥淭here is no justice. There is no law. ... There is no other explanation for this.鈥�

Mr. 陌mamo臒lu was first elected Istanbul mayor in a landslide in 2019 鈥� delivering a blow to Mr. Erdo臒an, whose own path to the presidency was launched when he was Istanbul mayor.

Mr. Erdo臒an, too, was arrested and jailed while in office in 1999 鈥� charged with incitement to violence and religious hatred by reading an Islamist poem at a political rally that called mosques 鈥渙ur barracks ... the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers.鈥�

Today the detention of the president鈥檚 main rival 鈥� who enjoys demonstrable, widespread support across different swaths of Turkish society 鈥� means Turkey 鈥渟tepped onto a new terrain on this day,鈥� wrote Soner 脟a臒aptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, on the social platform X.

鈥淚n 1999, Turkey鈥檚 political system created its anti-hero, by jailing then Istanbul mayor Erdo臒an (on sham charges). He entered prison as a mayor, but left it as a political star,鈥� wrote Mr. 脟a臒aptay. 鈥淎rresting 陌mamo臒lu will have the same effect on his brand 鈥� catapulting him to political stardom.鈥�

Yet today鈥檚 Turkey is 鈥渁 different country, having experienced state capture under Erdo臒an,鈥� he wrote, so efforts in the public sphere to cast Mr. 陌mamo臒lu as the representative of the 鈥渃ommon voter persecuted by elites鈥� may be limited, 鈥渁nd this is what Erdo臒an is betting on.鈥�

Mr. Erdo臒an has dominated Turkish politics for nearly a quarter century, as prime minister and president, and has worked assiduously to ensure unimpeded longevity for his rule. He expanded his authority in 2017 by pushing through a controversial national referendum creating an all-powerful executive presidency.

鈥淗e is God. Now he will officially be God,鈥� a Turkish construction manager called Salim told the Monitor on the eve of that referendum.

鈥淎 dangerous direction鈥�

But never before has Mr. Erdo臒an sought to remove the popular leader of the opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party, founded by the revered Mustafa Kemal Atat眉rk, who forged the modern Turkish state from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1923.

鈥淒espite its flaws and democratic backsliding, Turkey did have competitive electoral politics, and we have seen the opposition be able to gain secular strongholds鈥� and eventually big cities, as well as local elections last year across the country, says Ms. Ayd谋nta艧ba艧 at Brookings. 鈥淭hat felt like a dangerous direction to the current ruling elite.鈥�

Indeed, no stone appears to have been left unturned in the bid to stop Mr. 陌mamo臒lu.

The day before the two-term mayor鈥檚 detention, for example, Istanbul University declared it had stripped him of his early 1990s degree due to irregularities 鈥� technically rendering Mr. 陌mamo臒lu ineligible to run for president.

鈥淚t is clear that he is going to face a number of charges, from fraud to terrorism. And the fact that prosecutors have gone this far means that they have a green light to go this far, and I don鈥檛 see anything but him being put behind bars,鈥� says Ms. Ayd谋nta艧ba艧.

Mr. 陌mamo臒lu himself was calm in a video he posted on social media, as he put on a blue-purple tie in his dressing room at home, while he said 鈥渉undreds鈥� of police waited outside.

鈥淲e are facing intimidation, but I want you to know that I won鈥檛 be intimidated,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 will continue to fight that person, who uses the state process like it is his own apparatus.鈥�