海角大神

Lebanon鈥檚 Hezbollah militia and its fighters remain defiant, even expressing confidence, despite escalating Israeli attacks on its top commanders and missile arsenal that culminated Friday with the assassination of the group鈥檚 leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

With little significant retaliation yet from the Iran-backed Hezbollah 鈥� and uncharacteristically limited rhetoric from Iran vowing revenge 鈥� Israel expanded its airstrikes over the weekend to other anti-Israel militant groups in Lebanon.

It also struck other members of Iran鈥檚 鈥淎xis of Resistance鈥� as far away as Yemen.

That has raised questions about whether Israel has diminished Iran鈥檚 most potent regional ally in just two weeks. It has killed 20 members of its leadership pyramid, wounded 3,000 militia members, and cut key lines of communication by exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. Hundreds of Israeli airstrikes have left more than 1,000 Lebanese dead, both fighters and civilians.

On Monday, a U.S. official was quoted as saying Israeli military chiefs had warned Washington that a limited Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon was 鈥渋mminent鈥� to clear Hezbollah infrastructure along the border.

Also Monday, the Israel Defense Forces said on the social media platform X that it had 鈥渄ismantled鈥� Hezbollah鈥檚 鈥淢issiles and Rockets Force鈥� with a week of airstrikes. On Saturday the IDF said it intensified operations against Hezbollah鈥檚 鈥渇orce build-up鈥� by targeting 鈥渒ey weapon manufacturing sites鈥� and, days earlier, striking smuggling routes from Syria.

Hezbollah officers: We鈥檒l be ready to fight

Yet Hezbollah officers say in interviews that they have restored 70% to 80% of their communications network after temporarily losing contact with field officers in charge of firing missiles.

They also say the most powerful precision-guided, longer-range elements of Hezbollah鈥檚 missile arsenal remain intact. And Hezbollah will soon be ready to fight back 鈥渇ull throttle鈥� with bombardments and can now, in any event, repel any Israeli ground invasion, the officers say.

鈥淥ur war hasn鈥檛 started yet, but it鈥檚 [about] to start, and we are going to show the world what we are capable of doing,鈥� says a Hezbollah missile specialist, who gives the pseudonym Hassan.

鈥淎ll red lines are gone鈥� after the assassination of Mr. Nasrallah, he says. 鈥淲e are going to fight this war without any rules.鈥�

The Monitor has interviewed both Hezbollah officers quoted in this story several times in the past.

鈥淲e have a long way to go; we have a long war to fight,鈥� says Hassan, a Hezbollah veteran of 23 years, when asked why the militia is still using mostly older rockets instead of the most powerful and precise weapons believed to be in its estimated prewar arsenal of 150,000 rockets, missiles, and drones.

鈥淲e cannot show them everything the first day. We cannot drop it on them the first day. But you鈥檒l see. ... We know exactly what we are doing,鈥� he says.

Nasrallah鈥檚 long leadership

Analysts attribute Hezbollah鈥檚 losses of the last two weeks to Israeli intelligence鈥檚 deep penetration of the Shiite group, which was founded with the help of Iran during Israel鈥檚 invasion of Lebanon in 1982.

Mr. Nasrallah assumed leadership more than three decades ago, after his predecessor was killed by Israel. He gained mythical status among his followers in Lebanon and abroad as a truth-telling survivor who delivered military achievements against Israel in 2000 and 2006. During the Syrian civil war, he led Hezbollah鈥檚 rescue of a fellow Iranian ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Mr. Nasrallah was killed in a barrage of 80 American-supplied bunker buster bombs and other munitions, which destroyed six residential buildings in Hezbollah鈥檚 southern Beirut stronghold of Dahiya. Confirmation of his death prompted scenes of uncontrolled grief and wailing by Hezbollah supporters on the streets, and an exodus of Shiites to safer areas of the capital.

Not all have been welcome. Some Shiite mourners waving Hezbollah flags were reportedly set upon and beaten by members of other Lebanese sects, which blame the Shiite militia and Iran for bringing another devastating war with Israel.

Heiko Wimmen, the International Crisis Group鈥檚 Beirut-based project director for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, says the Israeli attacks likely are having an impact on Hezbollah鈥檚 ability to fight back.

Hezbollah officers appear to have little operational security right now, and must assume they are being tracked. That could mean, he says, that if Hezbollah鈥檚 arsenals still exist and are functioning, 鈥淭he expectation would be that the moment you start to activate them, they would be immediately destroyed.鈥�

Hezbollah鈥檚 logic has changed

Until the killing of Mr. Nasrallah, there were still public arguments about the wisdom of showing 鈥渟trategic patience,鈥� and about not being baited by Israel into a wider war, to explain Hezbollah鈥檚 lack of a more forceful response to previous Israeli strikes, Mr. Wimmen says.

Indeed, Hezbollah鈥檚 reactions were carefully calibrated in solidarity with Hamas, after its attack on Israel last Oct. 7. Both Hezbollah and Iran had signaled a desire only for managed escalation, and not for an all-out war.

But now, 鈥淎ll the logic of holding back 鈥撀爄t doesn鈥檛 add up anymore,鈥� says Mr. Wimmen.

鈥淔rom the perspective of Hezbollah, there is no meaningful difference between what is happening and what is to come, potentially, and all-out war,鈥� he says.

On Monday, Hezbollah鈥檚 deputy leader, Naim Qassem, delivered a recorded message of defiance and sought to reassure reeling Hezbollah forces that revenge was coming and 鈥渧ictory鈥� was certain. The white-bearded cleric did not name a new leader.

Israel had made no dent 鈥渁t all鈥� in Hezbollah鈥檚 military capacity, Mr. Qassem said, and militia weapons had been fired at targets up to 150 kilometers (93 miles) deep in Israel and sent 1 million Israelis into shelters, all while 鈥渆xerting the minimum effort鈥� as part of a broader war plan.

鈥淲hat is being said by their [Israeli] media 鈥� that they have targeted and hit our military capabilities 鈥� this is a dream,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey will never be able to achieve that. ... The tools and equipment are there.鈥�

Among those who will be ready for a more concerted fight is another Hezbollah officer, a stocky man who works on missile units and gives the pseudonym Jihad.

鈥淵es, Sayyid Nasrallah is dead. He鈥檚 a soldier like we are soldiers; he鈥檚 one of us, and he got killed like we get killed. ... He joined the team, that鈥檚 all,鈥� says the 22-year Hezbollah veteran.

鈥淣ow we are going after [the Israelis]; we鈥檙e going to make them pay,鈥� says Jihad. He uses an expletive in reference to Iran, which for a year has helped limit Hezbollah鈥檚 retaliation, to avoid a wider war that would directly pull in the United States and Iran.

鈥淲e are going to fight this war,鈥� says the Hezbollah officer. 鈥淒on鈥檛 mention the Iranians to me anymore. We are in Lebanon here; we are going to fight the Israelis and teach them a lesson.鈥�

A Lebanese researcher in Beirut contributed to this report.