海角大神

Even as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi鈥檚 helicopter remained missing and his condition unknown late Sunday, Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sought to calm the nation.

Pray for your president, he said. But if he does not come back, 鈥渞est assured that there will be no disruption in the country鈥檚 affairs.鈥�

Mr. Raisi was confirmed dead Monday when the remains of the helicopter were found on a steep hillside in northwest Iran locked in by fog and bad weather. Also killed in the crash, which state media attributed to mechanical failure, were Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other senior officials returning from a trip to Azerbaijan.

First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will assume the role of president, Mr. Khamenei said Monday, until elections can be held to replace Mr. Raisi.

The loss of Iran鈥檚 hard-line president comes at a fraught moment for the Islamic Republic, which is under pressure both at home and abroad like never before in recent decades. Analysts, however, expect few changes to strategy or policy 鈥� just as Mr. Khamenei promised.

Yet with Mr. Raisi鈥檚 name struck from atop the list of possible candidates to succeed the 85-year-old supreme leader, elite jockeying may ensue that could shape the future trajectory of Iran.

鈥淭he reality is that no Iranian president in recent history has gone as far as President Raisi in disempowering the executive branch,鈥� says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group. 鈥淗e will be remembered as an unpopular president who turned the role of the chief executive of the Islamic Republic into that of a yes man.鈥�

Mr. Raisi won the most votes in a choreographed 2021 contest in which all reform-minded and other consequential conservative candidates were ruled ineligible. The election saw the lowest voter turnout by far of any Iranian presidential race since the 1979 Islamic Revolution 鈥撀爈ess than 50%.

鈥淚 expect more continuity than change, especially when it comes to foreign policy,鈥� says Mr. Vaez, noting that the supreme leader and Revolutionary Guard set Iran鈥檚 regional and nuclear policies, and President Raisi and his foreign minister were 鈥渕ere spokespersons for those policies.鈥�

Another reason not to expect change is because, while the Islamic Republic is 鈥渁t the nadir of its legitimacy at home,鈥� he says, it is also 鈥渁t the zenith of its exclusionary policies 鈥撀爓hich means it is most likely going to disqualify any candidates who are even considered loyal critics of the system, and would only allow candidates who are as subservient as President Raisi to assume office.鈥�

Mr. Raisi was associated with some of the Islamic Republic鈥檚 most repressive episodes. He played a key role as a judge on a four-person panel that came to be known as the 鈥渄eath committee,鈥� which in 1988 led to the swift executions of some 5,000 prisoners. Mr. Raisi also presided over the brutal crackdown on nationwide protests that were triggered in 2022 by the killing of a young Kurdish woman by what鈥檚 known as the morality police for allegedly not fully covering her hair. Rights groups estimate that more than 500 died.

The Tehran Times announced the news of the president鈥檚 death with a banner headline, 鈥淢artyrdom in the line of duty,鈥� and official media trumpeted Mr. Raisi鈥檚 achievements. But there was also some celebration 鈥撀爀ven fireworks in some Kurdish areas of western Iran 鈥撀燼nd countless jokes and memes mocking the late president on social media.

Indeed, inside Iran an increasing portion of the population has been systematically disenfranchised by an elite hard-line minority, which controls every lever of power and has violently demonstrated that it brooks no dissent.

Outside Iran, the country鈥檚 indirect shadow war against Israel and American interests in the Middle East 鈥撀燼 war waged via Iran-backed 鈥淎xis of Resistance鈥� regional forces 鈥撀爐urned into a risky direct confrontation last month. Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel from its own soil April 13 in retaliation for an Israeli strike against Iranian generals in Syria.

While analysts note that conservative rule in Iran has been carefully solidified in recent years, the cost has been high in terms of regime popularity.

Meanwhile, the upcoming emergency presidential vote, which must be held within 50 days, could ultimately have a bearing on who will succeed Mr. Khamenei.

鈥淭he impact of Raisi鈥檚 death on leadership succession will be most acutely felt in how Khamenei approaches the early elections,鈥� says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media, a London-based news site focusing on Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula countries.

For decades, Mr. Khamenei cast Iran鈥檚 high election turnouts as evidence of the Islamic Revolution鈥檚 popular mandate, and often mocked foreign elections鈥� low turnout as proof of indifference, says Mr. Shabani. In Iran, voter turnout has dropped since 2000, including a record low of 8% in Tehran on May 10, in a parliamentary runoff vote.

The death of Mr. Raisi may present an opportunity to 鈥渞everse course, to get voters back into the political process,鈥� says Mr. Shabani. But that would also require a strategic decision, and for Mr. Khamenei to fight off the very hard-line forces that he initially allowed to stamp out reform politics altogether.

鈥淎 pro-reform resurgence in the polls will help shift dynamics on leadership succession,鈥� says Mr. Shabani. 鈥淐onversely, their total sidelining from power once again will indicate the future [hard-line] direction of Iran under the Islamic Republic.鈥�