海角大神

Near Lebanon鈥檚 border with Israel, a Hezbollah missile specialist now braces for war like never before.

Wearing black tactical trousers, green camouflage, and a pistol 鈥� capped by a fatigued look that is by turns elated and anxious 鈥� the officer in the Iran-backed Shiite militia says his morale and expectations of imminent battle could not be higher.

That is because he believes Hamas鈥� surprise Oct. 7 raid, which left 1,400 Israelis dead and triggered an Israeli ground assault into Gaza, is heralding a broader, long-awaited fight against Israel and its staunch American ally by every regional armed wing of Iran鈥檚 self-declared 鈥淎xis of Resistance.鈥�

鈥淥ct. 7: We can call it the day of the beginning of the fall of Israel; that makes our morale shoot sky high,鈥� says the Hezbollah veteran of 22 years, who gives the name Hassan.

鈥淲e can assure you, as Hezbollah, when we do receive the order to intervene and take sides with Hamas against the Israelis, immediately you will see the difference,鈥� Hassan says. 鈥淲e are definitely going to put a stop to all these massacres committed by the Israelis against the Palestinians.鈥�

Indeed, from Yemen to Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, the range of offensive moves taken so far by the Iran-backed factions 鈥� which have been cultivated, armed, and supported for decades by the Quds Force of Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 鈥� indicates that they have already been activated.

The jewel in the crown of that 鈥渁xis鈥� is the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is battle-hardened after a decade of war in Syria and has an estimated arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles that has for years ensured mutual deterrence with Israel.

Yet orders for an all-out Hezbollah assault on Israel were not announced Friday in Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah鈥檚 much-anticipated first public comments since Oct. 7.

Mr. Nasrallah鈥檚 fiery rhetoric decried American 鈥渉ypocrisy鈥� and claimed there was no more critical fight than 鈥渁gainst these Zionists,鈥澛燽ut it masked a careful effort to navigate competing priorities and motivations for Iran, Hezbollah, and the other factions.

Hezbollah had increased its operations 鈥渄ay by day,鈥� he said, taking a calculated 鈥渞isk鈥� to tie down Israeli troops to benefit Hamas.

鈥淲e are ready for all possibilities,鈥� Mr. Nasrallah said. 鈥淲hoever wants to prevent a regional war, and I am talking to the Americans, must quickly halt the aggression on Gaza.鈥�

Iran has applauded the Hamas assault, which harnessed years of clandestine Iranian support with arms, cash, and weapons-building technology to inflict the gravest attack on the Jewish state since its founding in 1948.

But the shock of that savage attack has also prompted a ferocious Israeli response, including more than 10,000 air and missile strikes 鈥� and a ground offensive bent on destroying Hamas altogether. Some 9,000 people have been reported killed in Gaza since Oct. 7.

Already Yemen鈥檚 Shiite Houthi rebels have fired three batches of missiles and drones more than 1,000 miles toward Israel. Iran-backed Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq have likewise mounted dozens of attacks against American troops in those countries.

And Hezbollah has engaged with Israel in attacks that are gradually claiming more lives on both sides and expanding deeper into each other鈥檚 territory 鈥� including simultaneous strikes Thursday against 19 Israeli targets.

Iran: Success vs. setback

鈥淚f the Israelis don鈥檛 topple Hamas in Gaza, if they do a ground incursion and then withdraw, then it would be a major victory for the whole 鈥楢xis of Resistance,鈥欌�� says Fabian Hinz, a Berlin-based expert on Iranian and regional missile capabilities at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

For the Iran-backed militias, past progress has usually been measured by episodes of conflict that afterwards created new levels of deterrence and capabilities against Israel, he says, without going so far as to risk the destruction of any single group.

But the sheer scale of the Hamas attack may prove to be a 鈥渕ajor miscalculation,鈥� says Mr. Hinz, by changing that gradual trajectory and triggering such a powerful Israeli response against Hamas that possibly no action 鈥� even from Hezbollah 鈥� could stop it.

鈥淭his carefully built-up deterrence ... [leading] to Hamas having tens of thousands of rockets and being able to make a ground incursion 鈥� basically all of that was gambled away by Hamas in that attack,鈥� adds Mr. Hinz.

鈥淚f you [the 鈥榓xis鈥橾 are not able to deter the Israelis from marching into Gaza, it is a major setback,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a very high-stakes game.鈥�

The Palestinian cause and anti-Israel venom have been an ideological pillar of Iran鈥檚 leadership since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iranian officials boast that Palestinian militants, who once fought with stones, knives, and slingshots, today use rockets, ballistic missiles, and drones from Iran 鈥撀爄n a transformation that Iran has repeated across its proxy militias.

鈥淭he hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger,鈥� Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned last week, as Israeli tanks moved into Gaza.

Iran鈥檚 calculations

Iran has denied any direct role in the Hamas raid. Yet in the current battle, Hamas leaders have called on Hezbollah and Iran to do more to help them.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the Iranians want to sacrifice Hezbollah on the altar of Hamas, because at the end of the day, Hezbollah is a prime component of Iran鈥檚 deterrent strategy,鈥� says Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based Hezbollah expert with the Atlantic Council.

鈥淚f you tell Hezbollah to go full-on with Israel, irrespective of the outcome, Hezbollah is going to take a battering, and there is no guarantee they鈥檒l be able to reequip and rearm as quickly as they did after 2006, to continue serving as deterrence for Iran,鈥� says Mr. Blanford, author of 鈥淲arrior of God: Inside Hezbollah鈥檚 Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel.鈥�

鈥淚 sense cooler heads prevailing for now, but that is a logical assessment,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 think the Iranians are logical, but the calculus may change, given the carnage in Gaza.

鈥淚 can see a lot more activity鈥� along the Lebanon-Israel border, such as drone attacks, limited incursions, and ambushes, 鈥渢o keep it all bubbling along,鈥� says Mr. Blanford. He notes that Hezbollah鈥檚 options short of all-out war include 鈥渕any, many shades of gray.鈥�

The rockets and drones fired by Yemen鈥檚 Houthis have so far all been shot down, either by American warships in the Red Sea or Israel, or landed in Egypt or Jordan. But Abdelaziz bin Habtour, the prime minister of the Houthi government that controls Yemen鈥檚 capital, Sanaa, said this week that Houthi forces would continue strikes as 鈥減art of the 鈥楢xis of Resistance.鈥欌��

There is 鈥渙ne 鈥榓xis,鈥� and there is coordination taking place, a joint operations room, and a joint command for all these operations,鈥� the Houthi politician said.

What the Houthis gain

鈥淭his is Iran鈥檚 investment in the Houthis manifesting itself,鈥� says Nadwa al-Dawsari, a Yemen expert with the Middle East Institute in Washington.

鈥淭he Houthis were guerrilla fighters in the remote north of Yemen, but the Iranians have been training them for at least the last 20 years, [with] IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and Quds Force commanders on the ground, helping them develop missile and drone technology,鈥� says Ms. Dawsari.

鈥淚ran has made the Houthis what they are,鈥� she says.

At the same time, taking part in the fight against Israel as part of Iran鈥檚 transnational 鈥渁xis鈥� also serves the Houthis at home, where criticism has grown over their ineffective rule during a year and a half of relative peace.

鈥淚nternally, the Houthis need war, in order to justify controlling the population without governing, so this is like a dream come true,鈥� says Ms. Dawsari. 鈥淚t is also a great opportunity for the Houthis to gain popularity and recruit fighters.鈥�

Closer to Israel, on Lebanon鈥檚 southern border, Hezbollah missile expert Hassan 鈥� whom friends say is a 鈥渢rue believer鈥� 鈥� recalls telling the Monitor in Beirut in August that his 鈥渕ain fear is to die without liberating Palestine 鈥� but we can see it getting closer.鈥�

After Oct. 7, what did Hassan tell his family, when he left for this southern front?

鈥淚 told my family: Pray for me. God willing, I may become a martyr on the road to Palestine.鈥�

A Lebanese researcher contributed to this report from near the Lebanon-Israel border.