海角大神

Amid cratering poll numbers, ongoing mass protests in the streets, and a recent military escalation on multiple fronts, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought the comfort of a friendly chat on Israel鈥檚 Channel 14, considered a safe space for the long-serving premier鈥檚 messaging.

Yet even on the slavishly adoring TV outlet, the gravity of Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 鈥� and Israel鈥檚 鈥� current reality broke through.

鈥淟isten, the feeling after three months [back in power] is not great. Not great,鈥� Yinon Magal, host of the channel鈥檚 鈥淭he Patriots鈥� panel show and a well-known Netanyahu supporter, began last Thursday. 鈥淭here was euphoria that we won an amazing victory after five elections [in less than four years], that we beat them, that we did it. 鈥� But it seems that something here isn鈥檛 working out.

鈥淓conomically, there isn鈥檛 any good news. If anything, the situation isn鈥檛 very bright. Security, we see [what鈥檚 happening],鈥澛爐he host continued. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a sour feeling in general.鈥�

Just over 100 days at the helm of the most far-right governing coalition in Israel鈥檚 history, Mr. Netanyahu, a famed political survivor, is under pressure from all sides, with questions mounting about whether he can keep his country united and secure, his extremist partners at bay, and his government intact.

The government鈥檚 sole signature issue 鈥� a controversial plan to overhaul the judicial system 鈥� faces an uncertain future amid intense domestic and international opposition. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have demonstrated for 15 straight weeks against the move, which critics contend would hand the government unchecked power.

Mr. Netanyahu was forced late last month to declare a 鈥渢ime out鈥� in advancing the legislation, and talks are now underway with the opposition seeking what he has termed 鈥渨ide consensus鈥� on reform.

President Joe Biden has made his feelings clear, urging Mr. Netanyahu to 鈥渨alk away鈥� from the issue, adding that he would not be invited to the White House 鈥渋n the near term,鈥� and that Israel as a whole 鈥渃annot continue down this road,鈥� a stunning reproach from the country鈥檚 most important ally.

Economic experts and financial markets appear to agree. The shekel has depreciated in value, foreign investment (particularly in the vaunted tech sector) has slowed, and late last week Moody鈥檚, the credit rating agency, downgraded its outlook for the country from positive to stable, citing the 鈥渄eterioration of governance.鈥�

Adding to the sense of drift, tensions and violence particularly between Israelis and Palestinians have escalated in recent weeks, as the Jewish Passover festival and the Muslim holy month of Ramadan converged.

Clashes between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli police at Jerusalem鈥檚 Al Aqsa Mosque was a contributing factor in rocket fire into Israel from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria over the course of a handful of days earlier this month. Attacks against Israelis have continued unabated, with 19 people killed since the start of the year (and the start of the government鈥檚 term). Deaths on the Palestinian side have spiked too, with at least 90 killed since the start of the year, most during Israeli military operations in the West Bank yet including many civilians, according to the B鈥檛selem human rights group.

Likud鈥檚 plummeting support

As Mr. Magal, the right-wing television host, hinted, the public mood has turned on Mr. Netanyahu.

Recent poll numbers from multiple surveys have shown voters abandoning his Likud party, which is losing anywhere from a quarter to more than a third of its support. Over two-thirds of the public give the current government a 鈥渂ad鈥� performance grade, and if elections were held today it would decisively lose its parliamentary majority to a wide coalition of opposition parties.

Most alarming for Mr. Netanyahu, his 鈥渟uitability鈥� ratings as prime minister have declined precipitously to 34%, and he is now trailing at least one centrist challenger, Benny Gantz, the former army chief and defense minister. According to political analysts, Mr. Netanyahu hasn鈥檛 been this unpopular for over 15 years.

鈥淭he numbers are abysmal for the government as a whole,鈥� says Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli pollster and fellow at the Century Foundation think tank. 鈥淏ut the drain is mostly from Likud. 鈥� There鈥檚 no question potential voters are leaving the party and taking 鈥榦ne step to the left,鈥� which is to Gantz鈥檚 party.鈥�

One such voter is Eliran, a married father of three from central Israel. Eliran, who requested that his last name not be used, voted Likud over the course of five elections dating back to 2019, including late last year. For Eliran and his five siblings 鈥� all self-identified right-wingers, all now former Likud supporters 鈥� their anger with the government is due primarily to the judicial overhaul push.

鈥淭hey only spoke about 鈥榬eform鈥� to the judiciary [before the last election] in general terms, we never saw the details of what they eventually proposed,鈥� he says. 鈥淚鈥檓 all for reform 鈥� but you can鈥檛 bring the Supreme Court to its knees, concentrate all power in the government, and turn the prime minister into a king.鈥�

Eliran and his family in fact joined the anti-government street protests, spurred on as well by the polarizing rhetoric of Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 ministers tarring protesters as 鈥渢raitors鈥� and by the more recent firing of the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, after he called on Mr. Netanyahu to halt the reform push.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not the same Bibi,鈥� Eliran says, using Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 nickname. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 feel that he鈥檚 in control, he鈥檚 just sitting on the [prime minister鈥檚] chair 鈥�. and the extremists [in government] are pulling the wheel.鈥�

鈥淭he sense here is that everything is being lost, and that things are getting worse 鈥� with no end or bottom in sight to this crisis,鈥� he adds.

He was 鈥渨ith certainty鈥� not voting Likud again, with Mr. Gantz the most probable alternative.

Damage control

Mr. Netanyahu has belatedly taken note of his dire position and attempted to repair some of the damage.

In addition to the enforced 鈥減ause鈥� in the judicial overhaul, he reportedly exiled his firebrand son (and senior adviser) Yair from both the country and social media, and reversed the firing of Mr. Gallant. Israel鈥檚 response to the rocket fire from Lebanon and Gaza was measured, say defense analysts, a bid to avoid escalation. And despite rightwing pressure, Mr. Netanyahu last week ordered a halt to Jewish visits to the Al Aqsa Mosque compound during the final 10 days of Ramadan.

Far-right government officials have begun grumbling about these and other measures, which they see as a 鈥渃apitulation鈥� to terrorism and an abdication of their election promises.

鈥淚鈥檓 trying very hard to be loyal and not attack the government I鈥檓 a member of, but it just can鈥檛 go on like this,鈥� Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told supporters. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote too that he was 鈥渙ften 鈥� frustrated by certain decisions鈥� and constantly weighed whether to resign his post.聽

Both Mr. Smotrich and Mr. Ben-Gvir, along with two dozen other coalition officials and thousands of ultra-nationalists, marched to an illegal West Bank settlement outpost last week in a show of defiance 鈥� not least toward their own government鈥檚 policies.

Mr. Netanyahu has taken to blaming the previous government for the 鈥渃rooked inheritance鈥� it bequeathed on the security front, and the protest movement for weakening national unity. Yet the public鈥檚 patience is wearing thin, to say nothing of his more extreme coalition partners demanding that greater force be deployed.

Collective plight

Political analysts are clear that no matter their mutual displeasure, Mr. Netanyahu and his coalition partners will almost certainly stick together for now and avoid a snap election, precisely because of their declining poll numbers.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 see any signs they want to disperse this government, since they won鈥檛 have many options in the future and most of them won鈥檛 return to power,鈥� says Tal Schneider, chief political correspondent for the Times of Israel.

Despite Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 tepid efforts so far at repairing the damage of recent months, the prospect of further turmoil and chaos will almost certainly remain, she adds.

鈥淚t all still looks like a circus. He doesn鈥檛 control his coalition members or ministers or police or military reservists or protesters in the streets,鈥� Ms. Schneider says. 鈥淭hey stuck themselves with this judicial reform, and they can鈥檛 seem to get out of it.鈥�