海角大神

There is still no shortage of True Believers in Iran鈥檚 revolution ready to cast ballots for hard-line and conservative candidates in Friday鈥檚 parliamentary election.

But there are also a growing number of Iranians whose disappointment, apathy, and anger at the ruling system 鈥撀燼nd its repeated inability to improve their lives through the ballot box 鈥� have led to one of the most lackluster election campaigns in recent memory.

Turnout in the one-sided contest 鈥� the candidates鈥� ranks have been purged of thousands of moderate and reformist voices 鈥� is expected to be at record lows.

Officials from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on down, have all but begged citizens to show up so they can equate 鈥撀燼s in the past 鈥� high voter turnout with continued popular support for Iran鈥檚 1979 Islamic revolution and its rulers.

鈥淭he polls will defuse America鈥檚 evil intentions,鈥� Ayatollah Khamenei said Tuesday, adding that voting was a religious duty. 鈥淎 weak parliament will adversely change the course of Iran鈥檚 fight against the enemies.鈥�

But Iran is reeling from an annus horribilis marked by violent street protests over fuel price hikes last November amid a biting 鈥渕aximum pressure鈥� campaign of U.S. sanctions. The protests were halted only by a brutal crackdown that left several hundred dead.

Other blows include the assassination by the United States of Iran鈥檚 most powerful general in January, and in the aftermath, the brief cover-up of the Revolutionary Guard鈥檚 accidental downing of a Ukrainian jetliner, which killed all 176 people aboard and sparked more anti-regime protests.

The rejection of 7,296 candidates (including 80 sitting lawmakers) out of 15,000 who applied to contest 290 seats in parliament indicates a high level of anxiety by Iran鈥檚 rulers, analysts say, and reflects a determination to leave no chance of a last-minute reformist surge.

Tools of change

It also shows the extent, as the Islamic Republic evolves after four decades, to which elected institutions like parliament and even the presidency have been eviscerated as tools of change.

One result may be unified rule by hard-liners, which in every previous configuration 鈥� under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for example 鈥� not only failed to solve Iran鈥檚 problems, but often made them worse.

鈥淚 did vote in the past, but not anymore. How can I give a seal of approval on this regime鈥檚 performance?鈥� asks Yaser, a married taxi driver in his 40s who has worked for Iran鈥檚 version of Uber in Tehran since his cellphone business went bust amid currency fluctuations.

鈥淭he sanctions have crippled us. Yes, the U.S. is blamed, but how about domestic corruption?鈥� says Yaser. 鈥淚 have no doubt [the regime] will collapse sooner or later. Let鈥檚 not forget the victims of the November protests. They were out for us, we can鈥檛 go out [to support] the regime, which killed them in broad daylight.鈥�

That view is echoed by Shirin, a student of applied linguistics in her 20s, who sits in a cafe in central Tehran where, as in other Iranian cities, turnout is expected to be as low as 20% to 30%. Nationwide, Iran鈥檚 leaders hope for a 50% show of support.

鈥淚 can鈥檛 see any bright future, but I can鈥檛 see this regime鈥檚 [exit] any time soon either,鈥� says Shirin, who plans to emigrate to Canada. 鈥淪o, I won鈥檛 waste my life anymore here.鈥�

鈥淗opelessness鈥� cited

Such sentiments have only become more widespread as Iranians use the word 鈥渉opelessness鈥� more and more about their economic plight and disdain for politics.

鈥淎t any juncture, where there was a possibility to decide on a more inclusive system, the decision was made in the direction of exclusion 鈥撀爀xplicitly 鈥撀燵which] makes the base of the regime even smaller,鈥� says Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert recently retired from the University of Hawaii.

鈥淭he hopelessness comes from the question of what to aspire to,鈥� says Ms. Farhi. Many Iranians 鈥渨ant the regime to reform itself, but they are realizing that it cannot, and it constantly shows that it cannot.鈥�

鈥淭hey ask, 鈥業f it cannot reform itself, what else can we do?鈥� And they realize that anything they want to do might lead to further violence and instability,鈥� she says. 鈥淪o, hopelessness is precisely the right word, because you are stuck in a system you don鈥檛 know how to impact in a positive direction.鈥�

President Hassan Rouhani noted as much when he warned the Guardian Council, the 12-member body that vets candidates, that it had gone too far in barring so many less-hard-line voices.

鈥淭he biggest danger to democracy and the rule of the nation comes on the day when elections turn into a formality, when choices are made somewhere else,鈥� Mr. Rouhani said Jan. 27.

Loss of control?

The president was rebuked by Ayatollah Khamenei, who days later said: 鈥淲hen you say that the elections have been engineered, the people become naturally discouraged.鈥�

The supreme leader, calling upon Iranians to vote for their nation and for 鈥渟ecurity鈥� 鈥� even if they do not personally like him 鈥� said Iran鈥檚 enemies, 鈥渁lthough they are afraid of our missiles, they are more intimidated by the Islamic Republic鈥檚 popular support.鈥�

But past gambits to boost voter turnout are not being used. Previous Iranian elections have been notable for how the political space for criticism opened up and social restrictions were eased in the weeks before election day, to help reassure voters.

Not this time.

鈥淚 expected a bit of loosening ... to open the atmosphere, but it is exactly the opposite,鈥� says a veteran political analyst in Tehran who asked not to be named. 鈥淭hey are tightening it up, they are showing very little tolerance for any dissent. They are arresting students, they are searching and raiding some of the journalists鈥� homes.

鈥淚 think they are worried very much, judging by this security getting tighter. They don鈥檛 feel relaxed, that they are in complete control,鈥� says the analyst.

鈥淭he regime knows, the decision-makers know, that the people are not enthusiastic about the elections. ... They are suffering,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his disappointment, confusion, and hopelessness about the future is not limited to the middle class and lower class, it has extended to the loyalists 鈥撀爐he people who have always been ready to vote.鈥�

He notes that the term 尘辞蝉迟补锄补鈥檉颈苍, 鈥渢he oppressed,鈥� who have long been lionized in Iran鈥檚 revolutionary discourse, has rarely been used officially since that very category of people rose up in protest at poor economic conditions in early 2018.

The believers

Still, there is no shortage of believers who answer the leader鈥檚 call. Among them is Roghayyeh, a primary school teacher in her 20s who wears a chador and can鈥檛 wait to contribute to a victory of hard-liners and conservatives. She wants to further weaken 鈥撀爋r even impeach 鈥� Mr. Rouhani, whom she blames for naively agreeing to a doomed nuclear deal, and for crippling U.S. sanctions.

鈥淎m I going to vote? No doubt, but let鈥檚 not mix things up. We have economic woes. Life has become really hard. But that has nothing to do with the basics of the revolution,鈥� says Roghayyeh, as she pushes her daughter鈥檚 stroller during a recent pro-regime march.

鈥淚t鈥檚 only because of the mismanagement of the reformists,鈥� she asserts. 鈥淧eople made a real mistake by voting for Rouhani. Look at the nuclear deal. Never trust Americans, that鈥檚 one of the basics of the revolution. But Rouhani did so and pushed us to where we are. I鈥檓 sure a revolutionary parliament will change course.鈥�

Saman 鈥� a clean-shaven, jeans-wearing student of nursing 鈥� will also vote, though he says the Guardian Council 鈥渕istreated鈥� reformists by rejecting so many, which 鈥渏ust gives an excuse to enemies to turn on their loudspeakers and say, 鈥楲ook at Iran, there is no democracy there.鈥欌��

鈥淥ur leader recently said if we become strong, no enemy can defeat us,鈥� says Saman, speaking during the march last week to mark the 41st anniversary of the revolution. 鈥淭here is no doubt we are at a moment of crisis. So, the only solution is the vote.鈥�