海角大神

Turkish television audiences 鈥� far from the widespread U.S. and European criticism of Turkey鈥檚 week-long incursion into northern Syria 鈥� watched helmet-cam video of their front-line troops raiding a prison emptied of its Islamic State militants.

The 鈥渢errorists鈥� of a Kurdish-led militia, which ran the prison and was armed and trained for years by the United States to fight against ISIS, had 鈥渟et free the [ISIS] militants in an attempt to fuel chaos,鈥� the viewers were told.

鈥淭he folly of trusting a terrorist group for keeping watch over another is exposed for all,鈥� said a senior Turkish official.

Imparted was one clear message: Turkey鈥檚 鈥淥peration Peace Spring鈥� 鈥� to create a 20-mile-deep 鈥渟afe zone鈥� across northern Syria and kill all militants there 鈥� is a necessary and precise anti-terrorist operation aimed, officials say, at protecting Turkish citizens from the menace of a Kurdish statelet from which militants can attack.

Another clear message: Turkey will press on with its map-altering offensive, despite threats to 鈥渄estroy鈥� its economy from President Donald Trump,聽who is widely seen to have greenlighted the Turkish operation in a call Oct. 6 with President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an. In a first step, Mr. Trump said he would聽鈥渋mmediately stop鈥� negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal, again raise tariffs on Turkish steel to 50%, and sanction current and former officials.

The launch of the Turkish offensive with little warning, shortly after Mr. Trump promised that U.S. troops would get out of the way, has already had far-reaching consequences, many of them problematic for Turkey and Mr. Erdo臒an, whose motives, say some analysts, were political as well as strategic.

It sparked the displacement of 160,000 civilians, according to the United Nations, and prompted the escape of hundreds of ISIS prisoners so far, out of tens of thousands of jihadists and their families in prisons and in camps.

But perhaps more ominously for Turkey, as the U.S. precipitously pulled back, it has enabled the return of Russian-backed Syrian government troops to areas they have not held for years. The troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad moved in at the invitation of America鈥檚 former Kurdish militia allies and with Moscow鈥檚 mediation of a tactical alliance that the Kurds entered to survive. On Tuesday, Moscow said its forces also were patrolling the northern zone.

鈥淣ational honor鈥�

As the regional chess pieces move 鈥� as dramatically in the past week as at any point in Syria鈥檚 devastating eight-year war 鈥� experts say there are many reasons Mr.聽Erdo臒an is not likely to yet bow to White House calls for a cease-fire.

鈥淭urkey鈥檚 main policy is, 鈥楾his is not a war, this is fighting against terrorism.鈥� It has long been on the agenda, for years,鈥� says Metehan Demir, a defense analyst based in Ankara.

Turkey considers the Kurdish People鈥檚 Protection Units, which lead the 50,000-strong Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers鈥� Party, or PKK, which has fought Turkey for decades and has also been on the U.S. list of terrorist organizations. The U.S.-supported and funded SDF lost 11,000 members in the fight against ISIS in northern Syria over several years.

鈥淚f Turkey steps back from this position its national honor will be seriously damaged ... because Turkish authorities, the Turkish state, many times promised its people that these terrorists would be wiped out from the area,鈥� says Mr. Demir.

鈥淚n my opinion, most all the people, all of the country, are united behind this operation because Turkish people are so tired ... of the bombings and terrorist attacks that killed thousands of people,鈥� says Mr. Demir. 鈥淭urkish people mostly believe this operation will put an end to these terrorist attacks against Turkey.鈥�

From 2015 to early 2017, especially, Turkey was afflicted by numerous high-casualty terrorist attacks, including in Istanbul against Ataturk Airport and the Reina nightclub. Many were claimed by ISIS, but the PKK also repeatedly struck targets 鈥撀爉ostly Turkish security forces 鈥撀燼s its four-decade battle against the Turkish state resumed.

American support for the Syrian Kurds has triggered deep unease in NATO-ally Turkey and been a key factor in ongoing U.S.-Turkey tensions. Mr. Trump prevented a Turkish incursion last December, concerned that it might jeopardize the safety of U.S. troops.

But the U.S. policy reversal followed a single Sunday call between the two presidents. The White House issued a statement at 11 p.m. on Oct. 6, noting that Turkey鈥檚 long-desired military offensive was coming. It began shortly thereafter, on Oct. 9.

U.S. sanctions

By then Mr. Trump, responding to a bipartisan outcry in the U.S. against a perceived 鈥渂etrayal鈥� of Kurdish allies, vowed that he would 鈥渄estroy鈥� Turkey鈥檚 economy if it stepped out of line. Turkish tanks rolled into northern Syria with little preparation to deal with imprisoned ISIS cadres or civilian refugee flows.

In addition to the measures Mr. Trump signed Monday, sanctions legislation with bipartisan support is being prepared in Congress. And the foreign ministers of all 28 European Union members agreed unanimously Monday to stop selling arms to Turkey.

Mr.聽Erdo臒an has been calm in the face of such outside pressure, dismissing the risk of sanctions on Turkey鈥檚 fragile economy.

鈥淲e are determined to take our operation to the end,鈥� Mr.聽Erdo臒an said in a speech in Azerbaijan on Monday. 鈥淲e will finish what we started. A hoisted flag does not come down.鈥�

Speaking earlier in Istanbul, he said: 鈥淭hose who think they can make Turkey turn back with these threats are gravely mistaken,鈥� adding that the Turkish Armed Forces could crush Syrian Kurds 鈥渋n a couple of days鈥� if it weren鈥檛 taking care to avoid civilian casualties.

鈥淲e work as precise as a jeweler and show utmost efforts not to allow even one civilian鈥檚 nosebleed,鈥� he claimed.

Among the incursion鈥檚 engagements being highlighted by Turkey鈥檚 Ministry of Defense was a drone strike on an ammunition truck. A ministry video said the strike 鈥渄estroyed the baby killer 鈥� terrorists鈥� who target residential areas with mortars, as they prepared for 鈥渘ew massacres.鈥�

Miscalculation?

But Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 plan to control a buffer zone in northern Syria 鈥� with one stated aim to provide a 鈥渟afe鈥� resettlement place for 2 million of the Syrian civil war refugees currently in Turkey 鈥撀爉ay already have been undone by the swift return to northeast Syria of Mr. Assad鈥檚 forces.

鈥淭urkey has miscalculated by failing to anticipate the rapprochement between Assad鈥檚 forces and the Syrian Kurdish fighters, facilitated by Russia,鈥� says Fadi Hakura, a Turkey expert at the Chatham House think tank in London.

鈥淥ne cannot separate the military adventure in Syria from the domestic politics in Turkey,鈥� says Mr. Hakura. 鈥淭urkey is facing a severe economic crisis.... Shifting the agenda to the war in Syria is an attempt to play at the Turkish sense of nationalism and insecurity, [but] the game plan has been shredded by Russia.鈥�

He says 鈥渄amaging blowback鈥� is also likely to come from U.S. sanctions, imposed by a Congress widely hostile to Mr. Erdo臒an.

Still, Turkey does have 鈥渓egitimate grievances,鈥� says Mr. Hakura, and has complained since the Obama administration about the U.S. friendship with Syrian Kurdish militias.

鈥淭urkey does fear the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish zone in northern Syria, and perhaps eventual independence, [which could] fuel irredentist claims by Turkey鈥檚 own Kurdish population, and lead to the fragmentation of the country,鈥� says Mr. Hakura. 鈥淭hat is an ingrained fear in Turkey since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.鈥�

And that fear is what plays best at home in Turkey, says Mr. Demir, the analyst in Ankara.

鈥淭urkey will definitely go on, until all targets are cleared,鈥� he says. 鈥淭urkish people believe that the operation will target only terrorists and their hideouts, and Turkey many times insisted that this is not an invasion, not an incursion, not a war, and does not actually aim to invade Syria for good.鈥�