海角大神

Allegations by the combative head of government of a sustained 鈥渨itch hunt鈥� by prosecutors and the media. Talk of a looming constitutional crisis. Heard this all before?

The leader being scrutinized, however, is not President Trump, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who over the past two years has been the focus of a raft of bribery investigations.

Yet with legal pressures mounting, the deft political tactician shows no signs of stepping down, instead denouncing the police and setting up what some say is a collision between political survival tactics and the rule of law in a democracy.

Israel certainly has had its share of political corruption scandals: Two prime ministers have even been forced to resign.

But now, after police investigators said last week that Mr. Netanyahu should face charges in a third bribery case 鈥� this time for dealings with an Israeli tycoon who owns the country鈥檚 fixed-line phone monopoly and a news website 鈥撀營srael finds itself heading into uncharted legal and political waters ahead of an election scheduled for next year.

Netanyahu鈥檚 campaign to insist on his innocence and stay in office has many worried that his attacks on Israel鈥檚 legal institutions may do lasting damage.

Israeli voters might face the choice of reelecting a prime minister whom the police have recommended be indicted 鈥� or who already has been indicted. At the same time, Israel鈥檚 Supreme Court might find itself weighing an appeal to order the prime minister to resign, as it has done in the past with other elected officials under indictment 鈥� setting up a potential showdown between Israel鈥檚 executive and judiciary branches.

鈥淲e are already in the middle of constitutional crisis,鈥欌�� says Avraham Diskin, professor of political science at Hebrew University. 鈥淎ccording to many prosecutors, Netanyahu should resign if he is indicted. That means just by indicting someone 鈥� without even convicting them 鈥� it鈥檚 possible to change the government in Israel.鈥�

The corruption cases

Concluding its investigation into what has been dubbed 鈥淐ase 4000,鈥� the police said last week that Netanyahu pushed regulations favoring Israel鈥檚 telephone monopoly, Bezeq, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. As an alleged quid pro quo, the police said, the company鈥檚 controlling stakeholder, Israeli tycoon Shaul Elovitch, allowed Netanyahu and his wife, Sara 鈥� also implicated in the case 鈥� to dictate content decisions on the news website Walla, which Mr. Elovitch also owns.

Earlier this year, the police recommended Netanyahu be indicted in two other bribery cases. In 鈥淐ase 1000,鈥� the police allege that the prime minister accepted gifts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars from Israeli tycoons. And in 鈥淐ase 2000,鈥� Netanyahu is accused of offering to pass legislation that would improve the competitive position of the daily Yediot Ahronot newspaper against a rival, in return for favorable coverage.

(There is a 鈥淐ase 3000.鈥� Netanyahu is not a suspect in that investigation, but his brother-in-law, a lawyer, is. He was paid for advising a German submarine maker that sold hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Dolphin submarines to Israel.)

鈥淭he chance that Netanyahu will be indicted on criminal charges, at least on breach of trust, is significantly greater than the chance that these three cases will be closed without anything,鈥� wrote Chen Maanit, a legal columnist for the Israeli financial newspaper Globes. 鈥淎nd a situation in which a prime minister is put on criminal trial while continuing in office is unacceptable.鈥�

Anti-police sentiment

Echoing Mr. Trump, Netanyahu has inveighed against Israeli law enforcement, prosecutors, and the Israeli media 鈥撀燼ccusing them of conspiring to bring down a lawfully elected government.

鈥淭he witch hunt against me and my wife continues,鈥� he said, accusing the police of deliberately targeting himself and right-wing politicians, while ignoring ties between newspaper publishers and opposition figures. Since the start of the police investigations against him more than two years ago, Netanyahu has repeated the mantra that聽鈥渘othing will come of it, because there鈥檚 nothing鈥� to the allegations.

Critics say Netanyahu is fanning conspiracy theories to inflame public sentiment against the country鈥檚 police, prosecution, and the courts 鈥� imperiling institutions at the heart of Israel鈥檚 democracy.

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 sacrifice everything in order to delegitimize those who are investigating you,鈥澛爏aid Yedidia Stern, a law professor at Bar-Ilan University and vice president at the Israel Democracy Institute, in an interview with Israel Radio.

鈥淓verything is being undermined,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no reason to think that the rule of law in Israel is fortified in a way that it can鈥檛 be cracked. We are cracking it daily in our arguments.鈥�

Layers of political protections

Conspiracy theories and rhetoric aside, there are layers of political protections that Netanyahu can marshal.

The ultimate decision on whether or not to take the prime minister to court, and what the severity of the charges should be, belongs to Attorney General Avichai Mandelblitt, a political appointee of the prime minister who served as Netanyahu鈥檚 cabinet secretary.

Critics of Mr. Mandelblitt have accused him of slow-walking the decision on whether or not to indict, and warned he plans to water down the charges. A former justice minister said Mandelblitt should have recused himself from handling the case.

There is no Israeli law that disqualifies a prime minister who has been indicted from continuing to serve, but there is a judicial precedent: The Supreme Court has ordered government ministers and other officeholders to step down after being indicted. The court would likely be called on to decide if the same precedent should be applied to a prime minister, but this time it would likely mean bringing down the government.

Though parliamentary elections are scheduled for next November, Netanyahu could call a snap vote. His authority is unchallenged within his Likud party, which has continued to lead public opinion polls despite the corruption allegations. If reelected, the prime minister could use that vote as a populist flak jacket against political or legal pressures to resign the premiership.

鈥淏ibi could run as someone under investigation, and if he wins he could claim that he has a popular mandate,鈥澛爏ays Jonathan Rynhold, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University. 鈥淭he danger is that the Netanyahus will go right up to the edge of what is permissible. He鈥檒l stir it up into a major political crisis.鈥�

Two who resigned

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was forced to resign in 2008 by his coalition partners when indictment over his involvement in a Jerusalem real estate project became unavoidable. He eventually was convicted and sent to jail. Ending his first tenure as prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin resigned on his own initiative in 1977 after it was revealed that his wife, Leah, had an illegal foreign currency bank account.

If Netanyahu were charged, his fate ultimately would lie in the hands of the right-wing and religious parliament members who are partners in his coalition. Meanwhile, the Likud has sought to pass laws that would shore up the power of the prime minister. Earlier this year, the coalition tried to pass a law to protect a sitting prime minister from indictment, but the measure did not advance.

Compared with the United States, where the president is limited by the constitutional checks and balances of Congress and the courts, an Israeli prime minister with a loyal majority has more power to stay in office at all costs short of a conviction. 聽聽

鈥淲e don鈥檛 have a constitution ... and there are no term limits,鈥� says Tal Schneider, a political correspondent for Globes. 鈥淭he government controls the parliament, and the government can change the laws. Here, the opposition is only getting weaker.鈥�