海角大神

Their car stuck in sweltering Baghdad traffic, the Iraqi men spotted a foreign news photographer on the sidewalk taking pictures of a wall of campaign posters.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e all thieves!鈥� shouted one of the men, about the candidates in Iraq鈥檚 May 12 elections. 鈥淲e won鈥檛 vote!鈥�

When polls open Saturday morning, Iraqis will be choosing from some 7,000 candidates for 329 seats in parliament. It鈥檚 the first nationwide election since the declaration last year that the Islamic State (ISIS) had been defeated after a devastating three-year war.

This election season, some characteristics of Iraqi politics are new, such as a shift away from divisive, overt sectarian campaign rhetoric 鈥� among Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds alike 鈥� that has dominated public political discourse since US forces invaded Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003. Taking its place are more bread-and-butter issues, such as local services and combating corruption.

But while candidates search for a post-sectarian blend of campaign promises that will convince Iraqis disgruntled with politics to give them their votes, Iraq鈥檚 veteran politicians face widespread聽disillusionment over whether they can be agents for change.

Most have learned that sectarian politics are dangerous, analysts say, and were a key ingredient in the rise of the extremist Sunni ISIS and in its support for a time by many among Iraq鈥檚 largely disenfranchised Sunni minority, who ruled Iraq for decades until 2003.

Since the ISIS defeat, quality of life and security have improved markedly in Baghdad and beyond. But many Iraqis, especially first-time would-be voters, say politics have not yet changed enough to earn their engagement, highlighting two key lessons for Iraqi voters and politicians about strengthening democracy: Voter participation drives legitimacy, and corruption undermines trust.

鈥淭here is a failure for more than 15 years, and people now are unhappy and desperate from [past results], so there must be new parties in order to build the trust between the people and politicians again,鈥� says Hanan al-Fatlawi, a physician and vocal lawmaker who is contesting this vote as head of her own list of 200-plus candidates in seven of Iraq鈥檚 18 provinces.

Little trust in parties, parliament

Dr. Fatlawi reckons that half of Iraq鈥檚 18.2 million eligible voters may not participate. A late-March survey of 1,066 Iraqis conducted for the 1,001 Iraqi Thoughts organization found that more than 70 percent planned to vote 鈥� a figure that would be slightly higher than the 65 percent average in previous elections.

But the same poll found that only 6 percent of Iraqis had trust in political parties 鈥� the lowest for any institution in Iraq 鈥� and that parliament fared only slightly better, with 8 percent of those polled voicing trust in it.

鈥淸Iraqis] say, 鈥楩or what we are going to vote? There will be no change. All are the same, all are corrupt, most of them are losers, and we don鈥檛 want to make the same mistake every four years,鈥� 鈥� says Fatlawi.

Speaking in English and wearing a maroon headscarf, Fatlawi is no stranger to controversy and is seen by some as an example of the evolution in Iraqi politics.

She is well known and popular for her pointed questioning of ministers in parliament 鈥撀爄ncluding demanding from Iraq鈥檚 defense chief in 2016 that he publicly disclose secret deals with 鈥渕afias鈥� that illegally flew weapons to ISIS. Footage during a fracas in parliament that same year shows her apparently throwing water bottles at Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

And Fatlawi has been accused of sectarianism 鈥撀燼 charge she flatly denies 鈥� after a portion of a television interview in April 2014, before ISIS invaded, appeared to show her suggesting that if seven Shiites were killed, then seven Sunnis should also be killed. She says her comments were misinterpreted, and that her point was that more Shiites than Sunnis were sacrificing their lives 鈥� as members of the Shiite-dominated armed forces at the time 鈥� in the fight against militants in Sunni areas, and that the sacrifice should be balanced among sects.

鈥淲e need new people, thinking in a different way,鈥� says the lawmaker.

To avoid the taint of previous political failures impeding new achievements, Fatlawi says the party she created in 2015, called Eraada, or Determination, has insisted on presenting candidates for Saturday鈥檚 vote with new faces who have never held executive political posts.

Like many Iraqi slates of candidates, Eraada includes contenders from across Iraq鈥檚 sectarian divides.

鈥淣ow the war is finished, and the oil price is rising,鈥� says Fatlawi. 鈥淭he situation is now better so there must be a new way of dealing with issues, a new policy and new ideas and new strategy.鈥�

鈥淣owadays,鈥� she adds, 鈥渟ectarian language really is not accepted by many of the people 鈥撀營鈥檓 not saying all of the people 鈥撀爄n all provinces. They are refusing to hear sectarian language.鈥�

Same old faces

One Iraqi analyst close to the government, explaining the focus on services and nationalist themes in the campaign, says Saturday鈥檚 vote 鈥渃ould be the first post-sectarian elections.鈥�

鈥淧eople don鈥檛 have the appetite for it,鈥� he says. 鈥淧eople are absolutely fed up with, 鈥榯his guy is Sunni, this guy is Shiite.鈥� Nobody cares about that. Shiite boys died in Sunni areas to liberate the country, and people are beyond that.鈥�

One case in point is the campaign of Fatlawi, who, the analyst says, had a reputation in the past for sectarianism, but has focused instead on helping young Iraqis and giving services.

鈥淪he鈥檚 actually giving me hope that these guys have learned a lesson,鈥� says the analyst, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of his job. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not because they have all of a sudden become good people, it鈥檚 because they know what is good for their political career, and if they want to survive, they better stop talking about sectarianism.鈥�

Iraq鈥檚 electoral lists are dominated by stalwart veteran politicians, like Mr. Abadi and his Victory Alliance 鈥� its name is a direct reference to Abadi鈥檚 handling of the anti-ISIS fight, and his overseeing the rebuilding of Iraqi armed forces since ISIS invaded from Syria in June 2014.

His party is the first since 2003 to field candidates in every Iraqi province, with candidates billed as sectarian bridge-builders. Also in the running is former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, at the head of a largely Shiite bloc.

And likely to gain many votes is the Fatah Alliance, the largest grouping of some 500 candidates linked to the mostly Shiite militias called the Popular Mobilization Forces. The PMF played a key roll in the anti-ISIS fight and are led by their commander, Hadi al-Amiri, a former minister of trade who has close ties to Iran.

So while the pitches may be new, the personalities are the same.

Getting out the vote

鈥淔or most Iraqis, what they are seeing is another election where about 90 percent or more are the same 鈥� the same leadership 鈥撀燼nd a political process that has not worked since 2003,鈥� says Renad Mansour, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London.

鈥淓veryone is saying the same thing: It鈥檚 all anti-corruption, services, employment,鈥� says Mr. Mansour. 鈥淪o there is a sense that, can you actually get what you want through politics, though these kind of elections?鈥�

The answer is no, for many younger Iraqis, especially.

鈥淒o you trust any of these candidates?鈥� asks a perfume seller in the Baghdad Mall, Tahar Nabil, who says he won鈥檛 vote.

鈥淚 was optimistic because we heard a lot of promises before the [2014] vote. I voted last time and our country was destroyed,鈥� says Mr. Nabil, a computer network engineer who says he has no choice but to work at a lowly job selling perfume.

鈥淭he government doesn鈥檛 provide opportunities or jobs for young people,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 have dreams to have a family and kids. But there is no program by the government to satisfy the young people and their dreams.鈥�

That problem was compounded by the ISIS invasion and war, which 鈥渢ook us decades back,鈥� says Nabil. 鈥淚f we had any hope or wishes for the future before ISIS, after that our hopes were deleted鈥�. All the government money goes for the wars, they don鈥檛 care about young people.鈥�

Among the key variables in Saturday鈥檚 election is how many of them will choose to vote.

鈥淵ou鈥檙e going to have over 3 million newly eligible voters, who could potentially participate in this election and turn it upside down,鈥� says the Baghdad analyst. 鈥淭hese guys don鈥檛 remember Saddam, they don鈥檛 remember what it鈥檚 like not to vote 鈥� and they don鈥檛 know the value of it and the cost of getting it.鈥�

So among the wall-to-wall campaign banners are also get-out-the-vote posters hung by the election commission. One shows a young boy held in the arms of his father waving an Iraqi flag, superimposed on a ballot the shape of Iraq. It reads: 鈥淵our voice builds the nation.鈥�