海角大神

Gunmen and suicide bombers attacked two of the most significant symbols of the Islamic Republic of Iran Wednesday, killing 12 people in Tehran as they raided the parliament building and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of Iran鈥檚 1979 revolution.

The so-called Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility, even as the hours-long battle in parliament was still under way. ISIS broadcast video of one casualty on the floor as gunmen fired and shouted in Arabic, 鈥淒o you think we will leave? We will remain, God willing!鈥�

Despite its critical role bolstering local forces to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Iran has been virtually immune to the insecurity and ISIS attacks that have plagued the region, from Libya to Afghanistan.

But the shocking nature of the attacks 鈥撀爐he first of their kind in the Islamic Republic for years 鈥� raises the question of whether and how they will affect Iran鈥檚 threat perception and anti-terror calculations.

Much will depend on how Iran perceives who is responsible, with many Iranians connecting these attacks to recent anti-Iran statements from regional rival Saudi Arabia, which they deem to be a primary backer of ISIS.

Yet questions are being raised, too, about how these two sets of attackers managed to evade Iran鈥檚 attentive counter-espionage apparatus and tight internal security. The four gunmen who raided parliament were reportedly disguised as women. One of the two suicide attackers at the Khomeini shrine, one of whom succeeded in detonating a bomb, reportedly was a woman.

Rally around the flag

Security officials said a third 鈥渢eam鈥� was captured prior to Wednesday鈥檚 attack.

Analysts say one result will be a rally-around-the-flag reaction that sets aside the years-long controversy over the expenditure of Iranian blood and treasure in the battlefields of Iraq and Syria.

鈥淭he immediate impact will be the enhanced popularity of Iran鈥檚 counter-terrorism policy in the region,鈥� says Hassan Ahmadian, a Middle East specialist at Tehran University.

鈥淭he people now feel more the linkage that the government has been speaking about, that 鈥業f we don鈥檛 fight them there, we will be fighting them here in Iran,鈥欌�� says Mr. Ahmadian. 鈥淚t was important, and it is now more important, to show the linkage between its policy in Iraq and Syria and national security inside鈥�. It gives Iran鈥檚 arguments a more robust base.鈥�

In a statement shortly after the attack, Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) held Saudi Arabia and the US complicit due to support for 鈥渢errorists,鈥� and said that it 鈥渨ould not leave unanswered the shedding of innocent blood.鈥�

The attack comes at a time of especially virulent rhetoric between Shiite-majority Iran and the Sunni kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

On May 2, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi defense minister and son of King Salman, said 鈥渨e will work so that the battle is on their side, inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia.鈥�

Riyadh summit

Two weeks ago, Saudi leaders hosted what it portrayed as an anti-terrorism summit, attended by President Trump and the leaders of dozens of Sunni Muslim states. The IRGC spoke of that meeting between Mr. Trump and 鈥渂ackward [Saudi] leaders who support terrorists,鈥� and declared that the ISIS claim of responsibility聽proves聽鈥渢hey have a hand in the bestial attacks.鈥�

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, speaking in Berlin, denied any involvement by Saudi extremists.

The Riyadh summit had two main purposes: to consolidate the Sunni Arab front against ISIS, and to isolate Iran. Splits in that Saudi-led alliance have since spilled over, however, with a vigorous Saudi-led campaign this week to excommunicate the natural gas-rich sheikhdom of Qatar, for backing Iran and allegedly funding terrorism. Those are charges Qatar denies.

Taking advantage of that split may be one diplomatic result for Iran鈥檚 relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who was reelected May 19 on a platform of openness and dialogue with the West.

鈥淭he terrorist incidents in Tehran today will, no doubt, strengthen the will of Islamic Iran in the campaign against regional terrorism, extremism, and violence,鈥� Mr. Rouhani said.

Work with partners

Soon after the Tehran attacks, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif flew to Turkey, where parliament is fast-tracking a bill to enable Turkish troops to deploy to protect Qatar鈥檚 ruling family. In Syria, Turkey's policy has often been the polar opposite of Iran's, by supporting anti-regime rebels.

But Turkey has been targeted by numerous ISIS attacks, and both sides have been exploring together diplomatic solutions to the Syria war.

Iran 鈥渨ill do a calibrated response, which is going to take some time to work out. They are not going to decide, right now today, about having a bomb go off in Riyadh 鈥� it鈥檚 just not very clever,鈥� says Mohammad Ali Shabani, the London-based editor of Al-Monitor鈥檚 Iran Pulse.

鈥淲hat you [will] see is efforts to attack US and Saudi influence in places like Iraq and in Syria 鈥撀爊ot in physical attacks or rhetorical attacks 鈥撀爐hey are going to work closer with their partners, with the Turks, with the Russians, that is going to be their response,鈥� says Mr. Shabani.

Mr. Zarif鈥檚 message to Turkey is likely to be about working together to solve the crisis over Qatar, and in Syria to 鈥渕op up the mess once and for all,鈥� he says. Iran will 鈥渦se the opportunity to say, 鈥楤oth of us are victims of the same group. We don鈥檛 only have shared interests, we have shared threats as well.鈥欌��

Such diplomacy may resonate with Iranians more after Wednesday鈥檚 attack, analysts say, even as it boosts support for Iran鈥檚 military efforts abroad.

鈥淭he shock now is observed, and I think gradually people will recognize that we are not that safe, that we have to support those people who are fighting those terrorists,鈥� says Ahmadian, at Tehran University.

鈥淭he popularity of the war on terror will rise in Iran,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat is something counter-productive for ISIS, if it was hitting Iran to stop it from the fight.鈥�