海角大神

To hear Turkey鈥檚 embattled politicians tell it, the 鈥測es鈥� or 鈥渘o鈥� referendum Turks are holding April 16 presents an existential choice that will either elevate their nation to a new level of peace, prosperity, and global greatness 鈥撀爋r plunge it into horrifying depths of terror, instability, and isolation.

On the ballot are constitutional changes that will create an all-powerful executive presidency for President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, whose increasingly authoritarian ways have already made him Turkey鈥檚 most powerful leader in nearly a century and have elicited denunciations from his critics that he is becoming a dictator.

鈥淗e is God. Now he will officially be God,鈥� says Salim, a construction manager, pithily predicting little real change if the 鈥測es鈥� campaign wins.

And yet, even as this referendum distills Turkey鈥檚 social and political divide into a single vote, the result is uncertain. Despite all the achievements and controversy of Mr. Erdo臒an and his Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP), who repeatedly have won resounding elections in 15 years at the top, multiple polls show a roughly 50-50 split.

With a result that could go either way, Turks in this polarized nation are asking themselves: 鈥淒o we want this?鈥�

The last time this question was posed most clearly, albeit indirectly, to Turkish voters, Erdo臒an did not get the response he wanted. June 2015 parliamentary elections left the AKP short of the seats it needed to form a stable government and push through the constitutional reforms, precipitating another round of elections months later.

On the way to collecting so much power for one individual, Turkey has, especially since the 2013 Gezi Park protests against聽Erdo臒an鈥檚 rule,聽witnessed unapologetic crackdowns against key pillars of civil society, from lawyers and opposition lawmakers to the independent media. The crackdowns have turned the country into a global leader in the jailing of journalists as part of a broader slide in human rights standards.

With recent poll results so uncertain, and apparently fearful that the chance of losing聽is real,聽Erdo臒an and the AKP have marshaled all the powers of state and the AKP-saturated media to convince Turks now that backers of the 鈥渘o鈥� campaign 鈥撀爈ed by the main opposition party 鈥撀燼re akin to terrorists devoted to spreading chaos, who only want to diminish Turkey.

Erdo臒an and the AKP 鈥渉ave been approaching this issue as if it鈥檚 a matter of life and death, a major survival issue,鈥� says Ersin Kalayc谋o臒lu, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul.

From the six-story-tall portrait of Erdo臒an looming over Istanbul鈥檚 Taksim Square, to highways festooned with endless 鈥測es鈥� banners, there is little room left for the 鈥渘o鈥� voice to be heard in the public sphere.

And as the vote nears, Erdo臒an and the AKP are making ever-widening claims about being engaged in an apocalyptic fight of Islam versus secularism and of an independent Turkey versus the 鈥渋mperialism鈥� of Europe and the West.

鈥淭hey try to give this impression of an existential fight between the forces of good and evil,鈥� says Mr. Kalayc谋o臒lu. 鈥淭he AKP is on the side of the good, and its leader 鈥� the president 鈥� versus all these evil forces [that] are involved in a huge conspiracy [against] this government, which is doing great things at home.... That鈥檚 the message.鈥�

One reason for the pull-out-the-stops final AKP push for votes 鈥� including with 3 million Turks living in Europe, and nationalist and ethnic Kurdish voters at home 鈥� may be that Turkey鈥檚 divisions have made recent polling a far less exact science than in the past.

AKP polling is uncertain, as it was before the last two elections, 鈥渂ecause people are lying to the pollsters, because they are afraid to say 鈥榥o鈥� to them,鈥� says Aaron Stein, a Turkey expert at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

鈥淥bviously the sun isn鈥檛 setting on the AKP,鈥� says Mr. Stein. 鈥淏ut this isn鈥檛 the AKP of 2008 to 2012, when they were seemingly invincible.鈥�

The president argues that the executive reform is a necessary and 鈥渄emocratic鈥� step to dispense with messy coalition governments; to 鈥渟trengthen鈥� the state; and to 鈥渇orever 鈥� end the era鈥� of coups that reaches back to 1913.

Attempted coup provided an impetus

The shock of an attempted coup attempt last July, which was narrowly put down when Erdo臒an called his supporters into the streets, has provided a new reason to harness national unity in the name of stability 鈥� and provided the new impetus to push for an executive presidency.

鈥淚stanbul should say 鈥榶es鈥� in such a way that the hearts of all who look at the Turkish nation in a malicious way should tremble,鈥� Erdo臒an told a final mass rally last Saturday in Istanbul.

He also has vowed on the campaign trail that unspecified European and American attempts to undermine the vote would not prevent Turks from delivering a resounding 鈥測es鈥� result.

In their turn, critics charge that the referendum is a blatant bid by the 鈥渄ictator鈥� Erdo臒an to finally quash all opposition 鈥� and even avoid future prosecution for corruption 鈥� by abolishing the post of prime minister and gaining the power to annul parliament.

鈥淯ncontrolled power results in disaster,鈥� Kemal K谋l谋莽daro臒lu, leader of the opposition Republic People鈥檚 Party (CHP), warned this month. 鈥淚sn鈥檛 it a sin to give all these powers to one person?鈥� he asked. 鈥淚f someone who represents 80 million people makes a mistake, then 80 million people pay the price.鈥�

The words of activists on both sides indicate the depth of Turkey鈥檚 divisions, and how both sides have ratcheted up fear-mongering in their bid to frighten their opponents to try to change their vote.

Too much power for one man

鈥淗e鈥檚 been a sultan for a number of years,鈥� says T眉lay Bozkurt, a CHP activist who wears a 鈥渘o鈥� tunic as she hands out leaflets beside a 鈥渘o鈥� tent on Istiklal Street, Istanbul鈥檚 main pedestrian avenue.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not all bad, because the AKP is suffering from a loss of support,鈥� says Ms. Bozkurt, a middle-aged former receptionist at a 5-star hotel.聽鈥淪ome people who voted for the AKP for years are saying 鈥榥o, it鈥檚 enough 鈥� don鈥檛 change the republic.鈥欌��

A local CHP official says Turks recognize the dangers of one-man rule, even though Erdo臒an himself says charges that a 鈥測es鈥� vote will impose one-man rule on Turks are 鈥渄elusional.鈥�

鈥淭errorism and the economy are going to be problems in the short term, and we can overcome them,鈥� says Aydin Ali Kalayci. 鈥淏ut if they bring this one-man system, it will be a long-term problem for us. It鈥檚 a power I would not even give my father.鈥�

Bozkurt hands out leaflets a step or two from the spot where a suicide bomb killed three Israeli and one Iranian tourist in March 2016. That was just one of a scores of terrorist attacks that have afflicted Turkey from Islamic State jihadists and Kurdish militants, which have caused tourism in Turkey to slump.

Erdo臒an and the AKP have promised to end terrorism if they win 鈥� a promise made frequently in past elections, which in their aftermath have instead seen attacks steadily increase, as wars in Syria and southeast Turkey spill over into urban centers.

鈥淭he AKP base is beginning to lose faith in these promises,鈥� says Bozkurt.

鈥淭he majority of people really don鈥檛 know why they are supporting the 鈥榶es鈥� campaign, they know very little about what democracy means, and have a culture to obey leaders, to bow down to them, to worship them,鈥� she says. 鈥淓rdo臒an speaks their language very well.鈥�

'We never had' democracy before Erdo臒an

The president鈥檚 message of change and a stronger Turkey is what AKP activists believe will give the 鈥測es鈥� campaign a decisive victory.

鈥淓ver since the beginning of this republic, no matter how much they talk of democracy and freedom, we never had any,鈥� says Song眉l, a devout AKP supporter wearing a full black abaya and tight headscarf, who runs the new AKP office 75 yards down Istiklal Street from the CHP office.

She is among the legions of believers in the ranks of the Islamist-leaning AKP, which has transformed Turkey鈥檚 secular tradition to a more pious one.

鈥淓ither we voted at gunpoint or they told us how to vote,鈥� says Song眉l, who ask that only her first name be used. 鈥淪o we experience this, we witnessed it, and lived through it, and eventually Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an came along and did something about it.鈥�

Song眉l says she was kicked out of university for breaking laws enforced then forbidding headscarves in government buildings 鈥撀燼nd eventually took exams wearing a wig over her headscarf.

When the AKP came to power in 2002, it was 鈥渢he first time we began reaping the fruits of being Turkish citizens,鈥� says Song眉l.

She says she agrees with all the president鈥檚 talking points, that Turkey is on the rise, that the West is 鈥渇alling into insignificance,鈥� and that 鈥渘o鈥� voters are 鈥渉and-in-hand with the terrorists." A 鈥測es鈥� vote is critical, she says, as a final step to realize perfect democracy.

鈥淲hatever argument they can find they are hurling it at people, hoping that some of them 鈥� all of them 鈥� will attract as many supporters as possible so they win,鈥� says Mr.聽Kalayc谋o臒lu, the professor.

鈥淭hese are all major themes they [Erdo臒an聽and the AKP] have been toying with all along,鈥� he says.聽鈥淭hey are trying to diminish the credibility of the聽鈥榥o鈥� vote, arguing that if you vote聽鈥榥o鈥� that you are anti-regime, anti-status quo, anti-establishment, and therefore for instability in the country.鈥�