海角大神

No doubt the secret dossier was meant to remain secret, when Turkey鈥檚 spy chief handed it to his German counterpart in February.

Inside it were the names of 300 individuals and 200 associations in Germany, complete with videos, recordings, and the telltale trappings of spycraft, German media reported last week. Turkey claimed it had identified supporters of Fethullah G眉len 鈥� a reclusive cleric who Turkey accuses of being the 鈥渢errorist鈥� mastermind of a coup attempt last July.

But instead of quietly declining to act, German officials last week publicly lambasted the Turkish government for spying on its citizens on German soil, revealing a gaping diplomatic disconnect between the two nations, and the latest rupture of trust between Turkey and Europe.

Turkey鈥檚 divisive politics are now spilling over as never before into Germany, home to some 3 million ethnic Turks. Half are able to vote in Turkey鈥檚 controversial April 16 referendum to expand the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an.

Germany has led a handful of European nations in blocking Turkish ministers from holding 鈥測es鈥� campaign rallies, prompting Turkish jibes about 鈥淣azism鈥� and 鈥渇ascism鈥� reemerging in Europe.

German politicians, including some of Turkish extraction, have urged Turks to vote 鈥渘o鈥� in the referendum, in a clear rebuke to Mr. Erdo臒an that has provoked outrage in Ankara. An article in Bild newspaper last week 鈥撀爄n both German and Turkish 鈥撀爏aid that Mustafa Kemal Atat眉rk, the founder of modern Turkey, would vote 鈥渘o鈥� if he were still alive.

Further angering Turkey, German officials have also suggested that Mr. G眉len played little role in the failed coup attempt 鈥撀爑ndermining an article of faith for Erdo臒an and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). In mass arrests since the coup attempt, Turkey detained and purged some 140,000 people it links to G眉len.

A strong reaction

Turkey 鈥渕iscalculated very badly, thinking they might get some help from German authorities, [who] used the opportunity to return the favor,鈥� says Stefan Kornelius, the foreign editor of S眉ddeutsche Zeitung, the newspaper that broke the story about the Turkish dossier.

鈥淲e had not only the Gestapo applying the same kind of measures, but the East German Stasi,鈥� says Mr. Kornelius. 鈥淭his is twice in recent history that Germany intimidated its own people, and to see it repeated on its own soil, of course they would react. It is na茂ve to assume they would actually get any help.鈥�

"We have told Turkey several times that such [activity] is not acceptable," said German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere last week, responding to the media reports. "Regardless of what you think of the G眉len movement, German law applies here, and citizens who live here won't be spied on by foreign states," he said.

Not only did Germany publicize the Turkish list of alleged G眉len sympathizers, but in some cases warned residents on the list of the risks of returning to Turkey.

鈥淭he intensity and ruthlessness being [used by Turkey] on people living on foreign soil is remarkable,鈥� Boris Pistorius, the Lower Saxony state interior minister, said to justify warning citizens, according to Reuters.

Turkey's latest clash with Germany comes after another in early March with the Netherlands, where authorities physically prevented AKP ministers from addressing 鈥測es鈥� rallies. Turkey鈥檚 newspaper front pages were full of images of Dutch riot police using dogs and water cannons to disperse Turkish protesters.

鈥淭urkey is not a country you can pull and push around, not a country whose citizens you can drag on the ground,鈥� Erdo臒an said on March 22. 鈥淚f Europe continues this way, no European in any part of the world can walk safely on the streets. Europe will be damaged by this.鈥�

G眉len and Erdo臒an

Analysts say Turkey鈥檚 actions and reactions are magnified by the politics of the referendum, in which the president and AKP are pulling out all stops to shift in their favor what polls show to be a 50-50 split over fulfilling Erdo臒an鈥檚 dream of creating a presidency with sultan-like powers.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not complicated. It鈥檚 all about winning a referendum for the Turkish president and his party,鈥� says Ersin Kalayc谋o臒lu, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul.

鈥淭hey are trying to create a certain image in which they appear both as strong in the face of international challenges, and at the same time [as] victim in the hands of vicious enemies of their party in Turkey and abroad,鈥� says Mr. Kalayc谋o臒lu.

Turkish officials don鈥檛 doubt that followers of G眉len 鈥� who lives in exile in Pennsylvania 鈥撀爋rchestrated the July 15 coup attempt, which traumatized Turkey鈥檚 ruling elite. For a decade the AKP worked closely with G眉lenists to undermine military and secular influence in Turkish politics, before falling out in 2013.

Today, G眉lenists are officially called the 鈥淔ethullah Terrorist Organization鈥� or FET脰, and are accused of every conceivable ill. Still, Turkey has not been able to convince the US to extradite the aging cleric, nor convince Europeans to crack down on his alleged influence.

鈥淭his was created to provoke Europe,鈥� says Kalayc谋o臒lu. 鈥淭here are many messages there, all of them geared at indicating how good and great and how pure and dedicated the government of Turkey is, and how on the other side, how evil their interlocutors are at home and abroad.鈥�

Germans don鈥檛 see their outing of Turkey鈥檚 spy agency as belligerent, but instead a response to what they consider an outrageous breach. Germany has dealt with the spat 鈥渋n a non-nervous, non-aggressive manner,鈥� but has reached a limit, says Sylke Tempel, the editor of Internationale Politik, which is published by the German Council on Foreign Relations. Germany is also worried about tensions flaring in the German-Turkish community, which is already polarized by the referendum.

鈥淭o go public with it is a sign that the German government wants to state clearly, 鈥楲isten there are limits to what you do 鈥� we are not going let you make us go berserk as well,鈥欌�� says Ms. Tempel.

There have been public calls in Germany to react more forcefully to Turkey, after the arrest in February of a German-Turkish journalist Deniz Y眉cel, a writer for Die Welt, on charges of spreading 鈥渢errorist propaganda,鈥� and also after Erdo臒an鈥檚 鈥淣azi鈥� comments.

The limits of tension

Despite the current fracases with Germany and Europe, and Turkey鈥檚 shrinking hope of ever joining the European Union, the economic and security relationship with NATO-ally Turkey may be too important to remain permanently hostile.

鈥淧resident Erdo臒an鈥檚 No. 1 ambition is to secure a victory is the referendum,鈥� says Fadi Hakura, a Turkey expert at the Chatham House think tank in London.

鈥淗e took advantage of the clash with Germany to play to the Turkish nationalists who are key to [that] victory,鈥� says Mr. Hakura. 鈥淓rdo臒an has continued to attack Europe, but at a lower tempo than before. He鈥檚 still playing with the Europe card, accusing Europe of being xenophobic and racist鈥�. There will be some bitter aftertaste, but I doubt this clash will rupture ties between Turkey and Germany.鈥�

Germany also is cognizant that it needs Turkey.

鈥淭urkey is Turkey. Its geostrategic and geographic position and its role in the Middle East is important, its role in NATO is important, so we have to try to sort things out as much as we can,鈥� says Tempel.

鈥淭his is the new normal anyway,鈥� she says. 鈥淲herever you look, almost each and every partner has become difficult鈥�. There is no huge road to happiness anymore, anywhere.鈥�