海角大神

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 11th-hour campaign decision to swerve deep into right-wing territory 鈥� reversing his support for a Palestinian state and urging supporters to counter 鈥渄roves鈥� of Arab voters 鈥� has paid off in a stunning victory.

His Likud party, trailing its leftist opponents in the final polls, not only closed the gap but surged to a six-seat victory over the Zionist Camp鈥檚 24 seats in national elections Tuesday, according to a near-complete tally Wednesday morning.

The clear margin will almost certainly give Mr. Netanyahu a fourth term as prime minister. And while President Reuven Rivlin called Tuesday night for the two top parties to form a national unity government, both rejected the idea.

Netanyahu now looks much better positioned to build a right-wing nationalist government that would allow him to govern unfettered by the wide ideological differences that doomed his previous coalition.

鈥淒ear friends, against all odds, we got a great victory for the Likud party,鈥� he said in a jubilant election night speech at Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv, to chants of 鈥淏ibi! Bibi! Bibi!鈥�

The fiercely fought campaign, which just days before the election seemed headed toward a major political upheaval, was in many ways a referendum on Netanyahu. The two main campaign slogans were, 鈥淥nly Netanyahu鈥� and 鈥淛ust not Netanyahu.鈥�

With turnout increasing to 68.4 percent, and nearly a quarter of the votes cast for Likud, the voters鈥� answer was clear. But the political and social cost 鈥� never mind the $60 million price-tag of holding elections 鈥� remains to be seen. Once the confetti settles, and Netanyahu turns to the task of actually trying to rule a deeply fractured country besieged by enemies, he will be facing many of the same challenges 鈥� but with few fresh ideas, and perhaps fewer friends.

鈥淚 was very disappointed with the fact that there was no real discussion about the issues,鈥� Speaker of the Knesset Yuli Edelstein of the Likud party told reporters Tuesday night in Tel Aviv. 鈥淚t was probably one of the lowest campaigns we had, and we wasted the opportunity as a country and a society, because when exactly are we going to discuss the real issues if not during an election campaign?鈥�

How Netanyahu prepared for a fourth victory

Netanyahu called early elections last fall after firing two of his coalition partners, Finance Minister Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid party and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni of the Hatnua party. He argued that he couldn鈥檛 govern effectively with such an ideological gap. One of the divisive issues was the coalition parties' opposition to a bill that would have formally identified Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people, a move some saw as undermining its democratic nature and marginalizing the country鈥檚 20 percent Arab population.

At the time, another Netanyahu victory seemed a pretty sure bet. But Ms. Livni鈥檚 decision to partner with the Labor party鈥檚 Isaac Herzog gave the prime minister a run for his money, attracting voters with their more moderate position on Palestinians as well as their commitment to socioeconomic issues. As of the final polls last Friday, they were projected to win by three to four seats.

So Netanyahu, widely recognized even by his foes聽as a shrewd politician, abruptly switched tack. After weeks of promoting himself as the only leader who could protect Israel against Iran, Hamas, and the Islamic State, he started talking about the things that were hurting Likud鈥檚 traditional blue-collar base聽鈥� the skyrocketing cost of housing and groceries. He vowed to appoint as finance minister Moshe Kahlon of the Kulanu party, a former Likudnik from a humble background whose monopoly-busting policies reduced charges for cellphone plans by 90 percent.

Netanyahu also openly cannibalized votes from estranged right-wing allies like Naftali Bennett鈥檚 Jewish Home party and Avigdor Lieberman鈥檚 Israel Beitenu. A day before the vote, he declared that there would be no Palestinian state on his watch, reneging on a 2009 pledge of support for the two-state solution to the Middle East conflict.

That puts him on a collision course with the Obama administration, which is already fuming over his bombastic speech to Congress two weeks ago in which he criticized a potential Iran nuclear deal. But the reversal appears to have played well with his base.

Mobilizing ambivalent Likud voters

As early indications Tuesday showed an uptick in Israeli Arab voter turnout, Netanyahu warned his supporters that 鈥淎rab voters are coming out in droves to the polls,鈥� putting a right-wing government in danger if they didn鈥檛 get out of their homes and vote.

When exit polls came in Tuesday night, it was clear that his tactics had paid off. All three Israeli TV news channels showed him pulling even with the Zionist Camp led by Mr. Herzog and Ms. Livni, with each party getting 27 of the Knesset鈥檚 120 seats and one poll putting Likud at 28.

But only Wednesday morning was the full picture clear. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Likud is projected to get 30 seats to the Zionist Camp鈥檚 24. Its victory came at the expense of estranged Netanyahu allies. Mr. Bennett, a rising star in the last elections, had to settle for eight seats; Mr. Lieberman was relegated to a record-low of six. Mr. Lapid of Yesh Atid, who as a rookie in 2013 captured 19 seats, also suffered and was downsized to 11.

鈥淲e had an atmosphere of a neck-and-neck race, and when you have such an atmosphere we know that 鈥� first of all you increase the turnout,鈥� says Abraham Diskin, a political scientist and former statistician for the Central Elections Committee. 鈥淪econd, the two really leading parties are gaining power from the satellite parties, and that 鈥� really happened here.鈥�

The two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, got seven and six, respectively, and could well become coalition partners for Netanyahu. He is also courting Mr. Kahlon, whose Kulanu party secured a solid 10 seats.

The Joint List, a bloc of Arab parties, made history by becoming the third-largest bloc for the first time, with 14 seats, while the left-wing Meretz party barely squeaked into the Knesset with four.

Last-minute fears

Prof. Avi Degani, a pollster and president of the Geocartography Knowledge Group, told reporters Wednesday morning that the unexpected surge from Likud was due in part to inaccurate polling that may have galvanized long-time Likud supporters who were on the fence.

鈥淧eople who supported Likud got scared鈥�. They say, I leave my fear and my inability to decide and I鈥檓 going to save the right and the Likud.鈥�

That certainly describes voters like Ran Ohayon, who was considering abandoning Likud but changed his mind on the eve of elections.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a serious threat,鈥� he said, sipping a foamy coffee outside a trendy Tel Aviv caf茅 on Tuesday. 鈥淲e haven鈥檛 been in this situation since the [1973 Yom] Kippur War.鈥�

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of people thinking like me, and you will see that in the election,鈥� he said.

And he was right.