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Why US-Iranian meet is a worrying sign for nuclear talks

A high-level meeting in Geneva between US and Iranian diplomats comes amid fears that a six-month interim deal may not yield a final agreement before a July deadline.

By Scott Peterson, Staff writer
Istanbul, Turkey

Top US and Iranian diplomats are wrapping up a bilateral meeting abruptly convened amid worries that disagreements at the negotiating table threaten a final nuclear deal next month.

Steady momentum听toward a deal dropped off听last month after Iran and six world powers accused each other of imposing unrealistic demands on each other.听The unplanned meeting yesterday and today indicates the magnitude of the hurdles that remain, as diplomats seek a compromise to get negotiations back on track.

鈥淲hen Iranian and American negotiators leave Geneva tonight, they will know if the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train or not,鈥 says Ali Vaez, the senior Iran analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.听

The US sent its A-team this time: the No. 2 diplomat, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns; the top US negotiator on Iran Wendy Sherman, the undersecretary of state for political affairs, and national security adviser to the vice president, Jake Sullivan. Mr. Burns and Mr. Sullivan听both met secretly with Iranian officials last year,听paving the way for an interim agreement last November.听

鈥淲e are at a critical juncture in talks,鈥 US State Department deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf told journalists in Washington. After the last talks, 鈥渨e hadn鈥檛 seen enough [progress] made, we hadn鈥檛 seen enough realism.鈥

Yet Iran said it was the US, not Iran, that needed to yield. 鈥淭he other side should take tough decisions to provide for our views,鈥 Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araqchi told Iranian journalists.

鈥淭he onus should be on both parties. Pretending the ball is in the other鈥檚 court has been one of the most futile exercises of the past decade,鈥 says Mr. Vaez.

Centrifuges and enrichment

The top issue remains the scale of Iran's uranium enrichment,听as it has been throughout 2 1/2 years of talks.听For months negotiators appeared to be making steady progress in their drive to limit Iran鈥檚 nuclear program to exclusively peaceful purposes. But as a听July 20听deadline looms, crucial differences remain.

Iran currently has 19,000 installed centrifuges, though only half are enriching uranium 鈥 the process that produces nuclear fuel for power plants, or nuclear material for a bomb if taken to higher levels.

Sources close to the talks say both sides reverted to less compromising positions in the last round of talks in Vienna.

The US wants听that number curtailed听to several thousand spinning centrifuges, leaving Iran with听only听a token enrichment capacity. In exchange, the US is offering limited and reversible sanctions relief.

But Iran wants to increase the number of operating centrifuges to 100,000 or more to meet future energy needs. It has said it would accept more intrusive inspections and other safeguard measures, but expects a full lifting of nuclear-related sanctions听in return.

鈥淲e are still hitting a wall on one absolutely fundamental point, which is the number of centrifuges which allow enrichment,鈥 French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told France Inter radio today,听Reuters reports. 鈥淲e say that there can be a few hundred centrifuges, but the Iranians want thousands so we鈥檙e not in the same framework."

Several compromise solutions have been floated, but they may not be acceptable to either听a US Congress that is currently considering additional sanctions 鈥 limiting what President Obama can offer Iran up front听鈥听or to hardliners in Iran, who already consider the interim deal a 鈥渞ip off.鈥

鈥淭he problem is not about physics. It is about politics,鈥 says Vaez. 鈥淭herefore direct political discussions between the two main stakeholders offers a surefire shortcut to a deal. If a solution is hammered out between Tehran and Washington, all other members of the P5+1 are likely to accept, even if grudgingly.鈥

Iran is negotiating with the so-called P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany). The next full round of talks are slated for听June 16 to 20听in Vienna. Iran will also be holding bilateral meetings听tomorrow听with French and Russian diplomats.