海角大神

Allegations of voter fraud on a scale not seen in decades have fueled concerns that聽one of Turkey's few untarnished democratic institutions has lost its independence at a time when the government is facing rock-bottom levels of public trust.

Defeated candidates have challenged the outcome of the March 30 local elections in 16 of the country鈥檚 81 provinces and in more than 100 districts in light of irregularities that allegedly favor the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The defeated challenger for mayor of Ankara, the capital, yesterday asked for the results to be annulled and the election re-run.聽

Accusations range from vote rigging to decisions by the country鈥檚 electoral boards that favored AKP candidates.

鈥淸Until now]聽elections remained the one institution that was unsullied,鈥� says Soli Ozel, a political scientist at Istanbul鈥檚 Kadir Has University. 鈥淣ow we will have lost trust in this one institution as well and I find this disturbing and worrying.鈥�

'Third world country'

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan鈥檚 AKP won many contests by large margins in much of the country, but there were tight contests in some battleground provinces.聽Among聽the most fiercely contested was Ankara, Turkey鈥檚 second largest city and recently a hotbed of social unrest.

Melih Gokcek, Ankara鈥檚 mayor of the past 20 years, was reelected by just over 32,000 votes 鈥� less than 1 percent. Mansur Yavas, the candidate for the main opposition People鈥檚 Republican Party (CHP), said systematic rigging cheated him of a win.

鈥淭urkey鈥檚 image has been transformed into that of a third world country,鈥� Mr. Yavas said聽at聽a press conference yesterday, when he announced his application to the country鈥檚 Supreme Electoral Board to annul the mayoral result.

As in several other provinces where opposition candidates lost by narrow margins, Ankara鈥檚 local election board rejected Yavas鈥� application for a recount.聽But in many of the areas where the AKP lost narrowly, multiple recounts have been allowed.

Yavas鈥檚 campaign yesterday claimed that more than half of Ankara鈥檚 ballot box return sheets show signs of irregularities and manipulation that favored Mr. Gokcek, the AKP incumbent.

鈥淲e feel that the election we won has been stolen by an organized effort throughout Ankara through various kinds of manipulation,鈥� Suat Kiniklioglu, Yavas鈥� campaign manager, told 海角大神.

Gokcek held his own press conference yesterday and denied the allegations, implying the聽Yavas campaign聽was a sore loser.

鈥淭hey are trying to keep their supporters on their feet and while doing this they are provoking people,鈥� he told reporters. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a part of democracy to accept when you鈥檙e defeated.鈥�

'Systematic' fraud

With the national government beset by corruption allegations, the atmosphere in the lead up to the March 30 vote was feverish and tense. Mr. Erdogan framed the vote as a referendum on his 12-year premiership.

The corruption allegations and the high political stakes may have heightened the perception that the vote was unfair, says Ozel. 鈥淢any people feared fraud so is it that fear that makes us see more of it or was there more of it?鈥�

Most observers stress that the nationwide percentages are broadly in line with predictions. But the claims were bolstered by the work of independent election monitors. The group "140journos," a citizens鈥� journalism collective, has used crowd sourcing to analyze more than 2,000 ballot return sheets, mainly from Ankara and Istanbul. They discovered some 250 have irregularities that mainly favor the AKP.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a systematic pattern,鈥� says Engin Onder, one of 140journos鈥� founders. 鈥淚f the closest opposition candidate gets 450 votes, the officials will write it in as 45. Votes are being miscalculated in the AKP鈥檚 favor.鈥�

Erik Meyersson, a Turkey specialist at the Stockholm School of Economics, says that in battlegrounds including Istanbul and Ankara, invalidated ballots聽were more commonly votes for the parties running against the AKP.聽

In a blog post,聽he stressed his findings do not in themselves constitute proof of fraud, but added:聽鈥淯ntil a valid explanation for these results聽is presented that does not include voter fraud, it is difficult to imagine what else could be going on.鈥澛�

Grassroots pushback

In Ankara, the Yavas campaign鈥檚 suspicions were aroused late on election night. Kiniklioglu says that the campaign received a call from the CHP鈥檚 official observer at the High Election Council offices聽in the early hours of the morning of March 31聽saying Yavas was 27,000 votes ahead 鈥� and that the only remaining neighborhoods to be counted were two known CHP strongholds.

鈥淪uddenly new ballot boxes emerged from conservative neighborhoods at four in the morning that overturned that lead and put Melih Gokcek ahead,鈥� Kiniklioglu says.

Before the elections, Ankara had been seen as a聽possible聽win聽for the CHP. Yavas ran in 2009 mayoral polls as a member of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which came third in those elections. As the CHP candidate, he was expected to聽bring聽a strong opposition vote that could overturn Gokcek鈥檚 slender聽majority. Recent polls gave Gokcek a slight lead, but Kiniklioglu says the CHP鈥檚 own polling gave Yavas a six-point lead two days ahead of the election.聽

Turkey鈥檚 High Election Council has pledged to fairly consider any irregularities in Ankara and other races around the country. However, its decisions will inevitably be seen as political in the current atmosphere.聽

With some Turks' trust in the electoral institutions shattered, the reported irregularities may encourage the growth of grassroots monitoring movements. Onder, of 140journos, says his organization is working on a software platform that will allow for a dramatic expansion in monitoring.

Turkey is due to hold presidential elections in August. By then 140journos hopes to be able to perform crowd-sourced analysis of some 30,000 ballot return sheets, equivalent to almost the entirety of Istanbul, a city with 10 million voters.

As Turkey gears up for another election, which will then be then be followed by a general election in June next year, there is little prospect of the deep political social divisions in the country healing soon.

鈥淭he tension will not decrease in the country,鈥� says Candar. 鈥淚t will remain as it is or even increase.鈥�