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Erdogan's critics fear crackdown after Turks deliver his party a victory

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's party triumphed in yesterday's local elections. Within hours, the websites of news outlets linked to a political rival went down.

By Alexander Christie-Miller , Correspondent
Istanbul

Turks voted yesterday in local elections billed as a referendum on the authoritarian drift and alleged corruption of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.聽

The result: a loud acquittal from his supporters, and warnings of more authoritarianism from a demoralized opposition.

Preliminary results indicate that聽Mr. Erdogan鈥檚 ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has聽triumphed resoundingly, winning聽45.5聽percent of the vote and holding the key battlegrounds of Istanbul and Ankara, the capital. Opponents are bracing for what they fear is an imminent crackdown.

The election was聽the AKP's聽first聽test at the polls聽since Erdogan's administration was hit by mass anti-government protests last summer, which continue to smolder, and a graft probe and wave of online leaks alleging widespread corruption in his inner circle. In spite of the blows, Erdogan鈥檚 support has dipped barely four points from AKP's record general election win in 2011.

In a speech last night in front of thousands of supporters in Istanbul, Erdogan lashed out at both his formal political opponents and the religious network of Fethullah Gulen, a Pennsylvania-based imam聽and former political ally聽whom the prime minister accuses of fabricating the graft allegations.

鈥淭he politics of lies, slander, blackmail and montage has been destroyed today,鈥 he said, adding that he聽and聽the voters had given their enemies an "Ottoman slap."

His fiery rhetoric bore a striking contrast to his more conciliatory speeches after previous election victories. Many observers fear he will see his triumph as a vindication for authoritarian steps, such as his recent decision to ban social media sites Twitter and YouTube.

鈥淲here he could have said any number of embracing or positive things, he chose instead to carry on with the very abrasive rhetoric he鈥檚 used throughout the campaign,鈥 says Asli Aydintasbas,聽a columnist at the Milliyet newspaper. 鈥淗e effectively said 鈥業鈥檓 going to punish all of you.鈥欌澛

Mandate to crackdown

In response to聽mass protests in June, Erdogan backed a police crackdown聽that eventually left聽10 dead聽and several dozen seriously injured. And in聽the wake of聽the graft probe launched on聽Dec. 17, his government has purged thousands of police officers, introduced laws neutering the judiciary, and shuffled prosecutors off the case.

And after leaks of tapped phone calls containing further corruption allegations began to appear online,聽he pushed a new internet censorship law and clamped down on social media.

鈥淸The election victory]聽is a huge mandate for Erdogan to carry on doing as he has done on every front,鈥 says Ms. Aydintasbas. 鈥淲hatever he was doing before, he feels he has now been vindicated.鈥

As if to drive home his victory, Erdogan appeared before the crowds alongside his son, Bilal, who was implicated in the now-stalled corruption probe. In February, a recording of a tapped phone call emerged online that appeared to show the pair discussing how to hide millions of dollars in cash from police investigators.

The Gulen factor

While the Turkish lira surged on the expectation that Erdogan鈥檚 victory might herald a return to political stability, shares in several businesses that he has publicly denounced plummeted.聽

Among them were those affiliated with Mr. Gulen鈥檚 movement, Hizmet ("Service"), which worked with Erdogan and the AKP for years to bring down Turkey's former secular elite. Hizmet's members command a large business empire in Turkey as well as a host of media organizations including the country鈥檚 highest circulation daily newspaper. They are also believed to have a strong presence in the police and judiciary, which many observers believe has allowed them to collect and now disseminate damaging information on the government 鈥 an allegation Gulen himself denies.

As the count came in last night, the websites of several Hizmet-linked newspapers were disabled. Several said they had come under cyber attack and had their internet connections periodically cut.聽

Referring to the Gulenists, Erdogan vowed that 鈥渇rom now on, we鈥檒l walk into their dens. They will pay for this.鈥澛

鈥淚t鈥檚 impossible for us not to worry,鈥 says Bulent Kenes, the editor-in-chief of the Gulen-linked Today鈥檚 Zaman newspaper. 鈥淗e has promised his supporters he would punish and eradicate the Hizmet movement. It was the biggest promise of his election campaign.鈥

Last week, Erdogan launched a legal case against Mr. Kenes in regard to tweets he sent mocking the sound of the prime minister鈥檚 voice during a stump speech.聽

Some defeats

Among the聽fractured political聽opposition, the mood was a mixture of despondence and disbelief after a chaotic election night marred by allegations of fraud. The opposition accused the government of creating power blackouts in several battleground cities that hampered vote counting.聽

In Ankara, defeated People鈥檚 Republican Party (CHP) candidate Mansur Yavas said he would contest the result in court after AKP incumbent Melih Gokcek, was reelected by a razor-thin margin.

In Istanbul, the key battleground and home to one-fifth of Turkey鈥檚 population, CHP candidate Mustafa Sarigul accepted defeat after losing by an eight-point margin to the AKP incumbent, Kadir Topbas.

While Erdogan鈥檚 party made gains nationwide,聽they also suffered聽notable defeats. Pro-Kurdish candidates solidified their hold over the country鈥檚 southeast, wresting control of three provinces previously held by the AKP.

The AKP also lost the southern province of Hatay, which borders Syria,聽to the CHP.聽The presence of predominantly Sunni refugees and rebel fighters have incited anti-government sentiment among the Shiite Alawite minority living there.

Erdogan the 'rock star'聽

The election victory indicates that Erdogan's supporters either overwhelmingly disbelieve the corruption charges or chose to overlook them when weighed against the achievements of his decade-long premiership. He has presided over unprecedented economic growth that has seen per capita income increase by 43 percent in real terms, instituted popular healthcare reforms, enacted huge infrastructure programs, and lifted restrictions on religious expression. Editor's note: This paragraph has been edited to correctly reflect Turkey's economic growth.

In the run-up to yesterday's vote, Erdogan often appeared at three or more rallies a day on behalf of local candidates and聽continued to attract crowds in the tens, or even hundreds, of thousands.

鈥淗e鈥檚 a rock star. People love him,鈥 says Aydintasbas, describing him as a hero for conservative voters who were second-class citizens under Turkey鈥檚 previous secularist governments.

鈥淭hey identify with his anger, with his yearning, with his defiance. He鈥檚 one of them. He鈥檚 not just using polarizing rhetoric, he鈥檚 waging a popular war against the former elites, the secular leftists.鈥

But Erdogan's most immediate targets are likely to be members of his own conservative camp: the Gulenists. In the past week, a government revoked the broadcasting license of one Gulenist television station.

鈥淚鈥檓 optimistic because we are not yet an entirely lawless state; there are still some just people,鈥 says Kenes. 鈥淚f he does close us down that would mean Turkey would have become a real dictatorship.鈥