海角大神

The mutual obsession between Iran and the United States could not be more obvious at the former US Embassy in Tehran, where the tour guide 鈥撀爐he 鈥渙fficial narrator of the Den of Spies鈥� 鈥撀爂reets an American visitor.聽

鈥泪迟鈥檚听your聽home, you can come anytime,鈥� says Mohammad Reza Shoghi, tongue-in-cheek, as we step inside to view the array of Spy vs. Spy surveillance equipment and aged shredding machines, and to hear the anti-US narratives that have accumulated in Iran since 52 US diplomats were taken hostage in 1979 and held for 444 days.聽

But this museum, with its message of perpetual conflict with an enemy of unmitigated evil,聽contradicts the other聽story line unfolding聽as Iran鈥檚 Islamic revolution matures: a tentative easing of that perpetual US-Iran conflict.聽The past few months have seen unprecedented face-to-face dialogue over Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and a promise by centrist President Hassan Rouhani to seek 鈥渃onstructive reengagement鈥� with the West.聽

But previous overtures always suffered from insurmountable setbacks. This is why the US and Iran are now limiting talks to the nuclear file, and moving carefully.聽

For many, the recent outreach 鈥� including a historic phone call between the US and Iranian presidents in September 鈥撀燼lready amounts to a thaw. How聽much further聽can any US-Iran rapprochement go, given a generation of mutual hostility, and the Iranian regime鈥檚聽long-encouraged entrenchment of anti-Americanism?

Analysts say any broader US-Iran understanding will depend on progress in nuclear talks with world powers to prevent Iran from ever being聽able to produce a bomb.

A six-month interim agreement signed in Geneva in November freezes Iran鈥檚 program in exchange for a modest easing of聽sanctions,聽in a first step toward a comprehensive final deal. Reaching a final accord would help ease chronic mistrust, and could lead to a new US-Iran accommodation 鈥撀燼 cold peace, of sorts.

鈥淚t鈥檚 an opportunity for both for both Obama and Rouhani, and it may be the last,鈥� says Amir Mohebian, a well-connected conservative analyst and editor in Tehran. Integrating Iran, he says, can help 鈥渟olve very important strategic problems in the world.鈥�

Yet many hurdles remain, including US Senate legislation introduced聽Thursday聽that would violate the Geneva agreement by imposing more sanctions on Iran. A Dec. 10聽US intelligence community聽assessment concluded that more sanctions now would 鈥渦ndermine the prospects鈥� for a final deal, and Iran has stated that any new sanctions will kill the accord.聽The White House says it will veto such a bill.

Accommodation, not friendship

Remarkably, Mr. Mohebian says tentative US-Iran steps have been approved at the highest levels in Iran,聽meaning聽Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

鈥淭his is the last opportunity of shifting from the first generation to the second generation of leaders 聽鈥� and the Leader wants to solve the issue of the US under his leadership,鈥� says Mohebian. He adds that聽Mr. Khamenei, who is in his mid-70s,聽sees Iran as negotiating from 鈥減eak鈥� strength because of the nuclear advances it has made despite sanctions, as well a belief in the growing appeal of Iran鈥檚 revolutionary message. 聽聽

鈥淭he goals of [Iran鈥檚 Islamic] system have changed. Being strong is not just about military strength鈥�. We know that [having] power makes goals changeable,鈥� says Mohebian. 鈥淲hy were we against the US? Because of its behavior. But if that behavior changes, then why [still oppose the US]? We are against our enemies. But if you are not our enemy, then why?鈥澛�

Khamenei鈥檚 readiness to 鈥渟olve this issue鈥� does not likely mean a sudden alliance or friendship 鈥撀燼t least under his watch 鈥� but instead finding a mutually agreed level of accommodation. Khamenei often speaks of Iran鈥檚 deep mistrust of the US government, listing past grievances that indicate to him that 鈥渘ot one day鈥� has passed since Iran鈥檚 1979 Islamic revolution without American attempts to undermine it.

Iran鈥檚 US-educated Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in his writings, says US-Iran ties are important, but that they also can be 鈥渘ever friendly.鈥�

Distrust

After the interim Geneva deal was signed, both US Secretary of State John Kerry and Mr. Zarif played down the prospect that the accord 鈥撀燼nd their own unprecedented direct contact 鈥撀燾ould be the first step toward improved ties.聽Yet hardliners on both sides have already attacked the deal as a compromise with the enemy.聽

鈥淐ertain people feel that we have to be more cautious when we are dealing with the West in general, and the United States in particular,鈥� says a senior Iranian official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

鈥淭hey are very much skeptical of the way America has handled this case and will handle it in the future,鈥� says the Iranian official. Smooth implementation of the Geneva deal 鈥� which is a 鈥渂ig 鈥榠f,鈥欌�� he adds 鈥撀燾ould 鈥渃reate an atmosphere of trust that you can build on.鈥�

For the Iranians, that means focusing for now on a nuclear deal that sticks.

鈥淭he No. 1 priority for Iran is to contain the US threat, to lower tension and build up sufficient deterrence to prevent a US attack,鈥� says an Iranian journalist who asked not to be named, explaining Iran鈥檚 contradictory policies of still accusing the US, while also seeking a thaw.

'Great Satan' remains

Hard-line critics of the deal have been fierce in Iran, despite Khamenei's support for his nuclear team.

鈥淲hen will [the Americans] agree?鈥� asks Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hard-line Kayhan newspaper, who is an official representative of Khamenei. 鈥淭hey have seen everything [nuclear] of ours in the last 10 years and not been satisfied. So it is clear that they will never be satisfied.鈥澛�

Though Khamenei has praised Iran鈥檚 negotiating team as 鈥渟ons of the revolution,鈥� Mr. Shariatmadari says, 鈥済ood children of a family can make mistakes, too. We should point out their mistakes 鈥� hey got ripped off.鈥澛�

Such an assessment fits the narrative of perpetual US perfidy at the former American embassy, where Mr. Shoghi, the guide, asserts numerous conspiracy theories, from US agents destroying the twin towers to create a 鈥減retext鈥� to invade Afghanistan and Iraq and 鈥渢orture鈥� their people, to a supposed聽Pentagon strategy of聽globally聽spreading poisonous pornography.

Upstairs, in a hall behind a heavy vault door with a combination lock, is a room-size box with two layers of plexiglass walls 鈥渇or top secret negotiations,鈥� the sign says, to prevent any eavesdropping. Three mannequins dressed in suits sit at a table inside with a 1970s-style phone.聽

Stepping out of a different secure communication room with a bank of telex machines, Shoghi curses under his breath, in Persian: 鈥淕reat Satan!鈥�

Softening of rhetoric

Though such views are the official line, in a country where 鈥淒eath to America!鈥� is still chanted weekly at聽Friday prayers, it is shared by only a fraction of Iranians, who paradoxically constitute one of the most pro-American populations in the Middle East.

The outside wall of the US Embassy wall is repainted from time to time, for example. Yet the recent retouch聽of one聽of the most striking images 鈥撀燼 Statue of Liberty with a skull face 鈥� was inexpertly done, and looks less fierce than before.

Pedestrians pass the iconic images without batting an eye. The US Embassy in Tehran long ago settled into Iran鈥檚 revolutionary landscape.聽

鈥淲hen I compare my classes to a couple of years ago, I see how the students are enthusiastic for dialogue with the US鈥� because聽Iranian society "is more聽independent, more self-confident, and they think now is the time they can talk with the US [on] equal terms,鈥� says Kayhan Barzegar, director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran.

鈥淚 think society is prepared to accept such a deal, but of course there is this classic perspective that mistrusts America,鈥� says Mr. Barzegar. 鈥淚t is there, and 鈥� the conservative part of Iran鈥檚 politics is very powerful when it comes to the US.鈥�

That means nuclear negotiators and their political leaders must move carefully if the process is to yield a real, long-awaited US-Iran thaw.

Iran鈥檚 neighbors and hardliners on both sides should 鈥済et used to it,鈥� says Barzegar: 鈥淚ran and the US cannot stay in conflict endlessly.鈥�