海角大神

When delegates from 57 nations gathered in Istanbul last week to discuss bringing peace and stability to Somalia, one country鈥檚 efforts got special attention: Turkey.

Since last year Turkish relief workers and volunteers have poured into the Somali capital of Mogadishu 鈥� a city deemed too dangerous to work in by most governments 鈥� building hospitals, schools, and public infrastructure.

鈥淪ince the coming of Turkey there has been a paradigm shift,鈥� says Somalia鈥檚 interim Prime Minister Abdulweli Mohamed Ali, in an interview with the Monitor.

He says Turkey has proven that reconstruction and aid efforts can work even as African Union troops battle to claw back parts of the country from the Al Shabab Islamist group, which is aligned with Al Qaeda.

鈥淵ou can do it simultaneously,鈥� says Prime Minister Ali. 鈥淵ou can create peace and stability by working on the security side, but also on the development side at the same time. That is what Turkey is successful at.鈥�

Somalia鈥檚 disparate factions are negotiating the creation of a national government, which would be the first since the country was plunged into civil war in 1991.

There is doubt, however, over whether they will be able to meet an August 20 deadline to finish the process, which also involves crafting a constitution and parliament.

聽Emerging regional power leading by example聽

Analysts say Ankara鈥檚 humanitarian and peace-building drive is part of a campaign to bolster its status as an emerging regional power.

At the conference, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticized other nations for lacking Turkey鈥檚 on-the-ground presence in Somalia.

"Without living there you cannot devise the correct policies and you cannot help. I invite the international community to open representative offices," he told delegates on Friday.

Prime Minister Erdogan has led by example. He made an official visit to Mogadishu last August, becoming the first non-African leader to set foot in the city in two decades.

Three months later Turkey opened an embassy in Somalia and then in March this year the national carrier Turkish Airlines became the first international airline to operate commercial flights to Mogadishu in 20 years.

鈥淚t鈥檚 the new emerging imperial spirit,鈥� says Asli Aydintasbas, a foreign affairs commentator at the daily Milliyet newspaper. 鈥淚t鈥檚 part of the global role they want to play, in order to be a regional hegemon.鈥�

Under the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) headed by Erdogan, Turkey has garnered international prestige as a Muslim-majority country with a functioning multi-party democracy and surging economy.

Over the past decade Turkey鈥檚 trade ties with foreign countries have burgeoned, particularly with poorer Islamic nations where Turkish construction and manufacturing firms have found a ready market. Turkey鈥檚 exports to Africa have increased from $2.1 billion in 2003 to $10.3 billion last year.

Alongside this, Ankara has involved itself in the politics of other countries in its region, styling itself as a peacemaker.

鈥淭urkey wants to legitimize its role on the world stage and make out that it is not interested in just trade and economics, but humanitarian issues too,鈥� says Gokhan聽Bacik, director of the Middle East Strategic Research Center at Turkey鈥檚 Zirve University.

Turkey鈥檚 interest in Somalia is also driven in part by domestic politics, says Mr. Bacik.

Being prominently involved in peace-building efforts in an impoverished Muslim country both endears the AKP to its conservative base, and further adds to voters鈥� sense of Turkey鈥檚 growing greatness in the world.

鈥淚n Turkish public imagination, Somalia has been symbolic of poverty in Africa for a long time. People are aware of Somalia,鈥� says Bacik.

Last August during the holy month of Ramadan 鈥� a time when Muslims traditionally demonstrate their faith with charity 鈥� Erdogan placed a strong emphasis on Somalia, saying it was "incomprehensible" for Turks to ignore the country鈥檚 plight.

By twinning religion and charity, he was putting pressure on the country鈥檚 main secular opposition party, says Bacik. 鈥淭he prime minister is using this very effectively in domestic politics.鈥�

Doubts

But how effective Turkey鈥檚 involvement in Somalia will be remains in doubt.

鈥淭urkey鈥檚 role can be helpful but it鈥檚 not going to be decisive,鈥� says Ken Menkhaus, a political scientist and Somalia expert at Davidson University in North Carolina.聽鈥淭he prospects for peace and stability in Somalia are being driven by much bigger factors than individual countries playing facilitating roles.鈥�

Bacik believes Ankara is not yet attuned to the local politics of the country. 鈥淭urkey is very much reading the region according to its own perception of Africa, rather than the reality," he says. "There is no awareness of the local conflicts within the country.鈥澛�

As a newcomer, it has the advantage of having few enemies and so can operate with relative safety, says Mr. Menkhaus.

Despite the mood of optimism in Istanbul, the prospects of peace and stability in Somalia remains uncertain.

鈥淭hey have the political grace to go in there right now and not be targeted by anyone鈥� but that won鈥檛 last long,鈥� he warns.

There have already been signs of possible trouble ahead. Al Shabab has denounced Ankara as a stooge of the West, and detonated a car bomb yards from its Mogadishu embassy in November last year.

Al Shabab, after losing territory to African Union forces, have mounted a guerrilla and bombing campaign, last week attacking the Somali president鈥檚 convoy in a part of Mogadishu thought to have been cleared of Shabab's forces.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not going to be an easy ride,鈥� says Menkhaus. 鈥淲e have to be very realistic about our expectations.鈥�