海角大神

By the time that giant glass ball descends over Times Square each year, most news organizations have already printed their assessments of the year鈥檚 great events. One magazine, Time, takes this time to name its Person of the Year, and often names a category of persons (鈥渢he Protester鈥�) or even an inanimate object (鈥淭he Computer").

Articles that look back may feel subjective, but articles that predict the future tend to be absolute fluff, dodgy guesswork, or complete genius. Good arguments and persuasive evidence aren鈥檛 always a good guide for telling one type of article from the next. The best one can do is read selectively, keep a mental scorecard, and strut in front of friends when one of the articles turns out right.

Arab Spring? Yeah, I knew that would happen.

Predicting the future is risky business, but it鈥檚 also incredibly valuable. Fortune 500 companies pay big money for 鈥渆conomic intelligence鈥� to help them plan for the next big thing. Governments assemble expensive spy networks to keep one step ahead of their enemies, and two steps ahead of their friends. Ordinary citizens can do all this too, by reading the news. And here are a few decent places to look.

Foreign Affairs. Yes, it looks incredibly stodgy, its pale blue cover untouched by designers since the cold war. But when it comes to far-out futurism, Foreign Affairs is the Rolling Stone of international relations. When Samuel Huntington wrote his 鈥淐lash of Civilizations鈥� piece in the summer edition of Foreign Affairs in 1993, he predicted the broader outlines of September 11, 2001.聽

This month, Foreign Affairs has published a veritable Pirelli鈥檚 calendar of wonkish delight with its collection of 鈥淓leven Foreign Policy Insights.鈥� Check out Stewart M. Patrick鈥檚 piece from this list, called 鈥淗ow does the debt debate affect foreign aid?鈥� Even though the article was originally published in July of 2011, it still reads like today's news, and it suggests a decline in US influence abroad. 聽聽

While it鈥檚 easy to dismiss a piece because of its failure to predict events 鈥� as many do with Francis Fukuyama鈥檚 1989 鈥淓nd of History鈥� piece in the National Interest 鈥� such articles still have value in looking at present events and drawing trajectories into the future.

In that spirit, one must read Gordon G. Chang鈥檚 piece in Foreign Policy, under the headline 鈥淭he Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition.鈥� To put it lightly, Mr. Chang鈥檚 viewpoint is not the dominant one, at a time when the Chinese economy continues to boom. But as the Monitor's own Peter Ford notes, there is growing unrest in the Chinese population. And Chang identifies three of China鈥檚 former strengths 鈥� its economic reforms, its massive and cheap labor force, and its emergence at a time of falling economic and political barriers 鈥� that have now turned into weaknesses.

As a side note, it turns out the American official who will be doing the most to guide US policy on China in the next year or so will be聽Vice President Joe Biden, a fact that will either reassure or terrify, depending on one鈥檚 opinion of Joe Biden.

There is a reason why journalists tend to pay so much attention to the political leaders of the day, and it is because it is political leaders 鈥� and their belief systems and prejudices 鈥� that do the most to affect the course of political events. Paul Pillar, the former deputy of the CIA鈥檚 Counterterrorism Center, writes a strong piece in Foreign Policy refuting the conventional wisdom that it was bad intelligence that led the US into the war into Iraq. No, says Mr. Pillar, it was the聽gut instincts of the Bush administration that led the US to war, for good or for ill.

Journalistic predictions, like diplomatic cables, may be guesswork. But they鈥檙e a useful part of analyzing a changing world. Are you keeping score?