海角大神

Poland鈥檚 remarkable transformation since the Cold War means it now stands on the cusp of becoming one of Europe鈥檚 most powerful and influential nations. This week鈥檚 presidential election reveals a nation deeply conflicted about how to do that.

In many respects, Poland is Europe鈥檚 greatest postwar success story, with booming economic growth rates and a robust military strongly committed to NATO. Sunday鈥檚 whisper-thin election, too, testified to democratic progress: Results came quickly, efficiently, and without contention or violence.

But the election continued a trend of Polish voters endorsing seesawing visions of its future. The current government, elected in 2023, sees its strength in close alliance with a strong European Union. The new president, Karol Nawrocki, and his allies in the opposition Law and Justice party see the EU as a meddlesome bureaucracy, with a liberal agenda that threatens Polish sovereignty. So they are wary of a full embrace of Brussels.

The same pattern is playing out across Central Europe, most recently in Romania. In recent presidential elections there, the pro-EU candidate won, but narrowly. That election, like the one here, showed a region that enthusiastically embraced the EU to leave behind the shadows of Cold War, but is now uncertain how close it wants to get.

As the keystone of Central Europe, Poland shows the stakes clearly. A position of leadership and broader economic opportunity await, but only if Poland chooses to seize them.

Opponents 鈥渉ave been using Brussels as a punching bag 鈥� everything bad comes from Brussels, and everything good comes from Poland,鈥� says Zbignew Pisarski, president of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation in Warsaw. 鈥淲e should be using the EU as a lever for the benefit of the Polish economy.鈥�

Vying visions for Poland鈥檚 future

Mr. Nawrocki won Sunday鈥檚 election with 50.9% of the vote. The election itself will not immediately change the course of Polish politics. For one, the presidency is a largely ceremonial position with limited powers. Moreover, the previous president, Andrzej Duda, was also an opponent to the current government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

But the powers the president does wield have been key to stymieing Mr. Tusk鈥檚 agenda. For example, when Mr. Tusk tried to push through reforms that the EU believes are crucial for judicial independence, Mr. Duda blocked him. Mr. Nawrocki is expected to do the same.

In light of the defeat of the presidential candidate he supported, Mr. Tusk announced Monday that he will soon ask parliament for a vote of confidence in his government. 鈥淚 want everyone to see,鈥� he said in a televised speech, 鈥渢hat we understand the gravity of the moment, but that we do not intend to take a single step back.鈥�

The larger signal from the presidential election, however, is in contrasting visions of Poland鈥檚 role in Europe and the world. Mr. Nawrocki and his allies see 鈥渁 strong Poland in Europe,鈥� says Kai-Olaf Lang of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Meanwhile Mr. Tusk and his allies envision 鈥渁 strong Poland in a strong Europe,鈥� he adds.

Poland鈥檚 membership in the EU is not in question, and it has shown an eagerness to work with Europe on defense. 鈥淭here is a very strong strategic sense of the way forward, and it is West-ward,鈥� says Miko艂aj Cze艣nik of the Polish National Election Study at SWPS University in Warsaw.

But Polish history has left the country wary of its neighbors. From the nation鈥檚 dissolution by imperial powers in the 18th century to its violent conquest by Germany in World War II to its ruthless control by the Soviets, Poland has been betrayed repeatedly by those around it. 鈥淚ndependence is very, very precious for Polish people,鈥� says Professor Cze艣nik.

As president, Mr. Nawrocki is expected to take a hard line in defending against any perceived overreach by the EU.

Peter Rzecki sees that as a good thing. The philosophy student at the University of Warsaw says he doesn鈥檛 like 鈥渢he approach that the European Union is the root of all goodness in our lives.鈥�

He鈥檚 not against the EU. He says Polish nationalism doesn鈥檛 have to be anti-European. But he calls some EU policies 鈥渟tupid,鈥� such as on migrants and climate. 鈥淲e should have a say.鈥�

There鈥檚 also the fact that closer alliance with Europe means closer alliance with Germany, and the trauma of World War II still runs deep. Mr. Nawrocki and the Law and Justice party repeatedly cast Germany as a quasi-enemy, untrustworthy, and unlikely to allow Poland to prosper.

鈥淥ur enemy is Russia, not the EU鈥�

Germany鈥檚 leading role in massive EU investment in Poland suggests otherwise. And some Poles think the generations-old distrust now hurts their own country more than anyone.

With sheet music on her lap and a T-shirt of classical composers, Magdalena is sitting in a park beneath the Palace of Culture and Science. The hulking tower, originally known as the Joseph Stalin Palace of Culture and Science, was built during the Cold War 鈥� a gift from the Soviets, and a reminder of who was in charge.

鈥淥ur enemy is Russia, not the EU and Germany,鈥� says Magdalena, who withholds her last name because of privacy concerns. 鈥淲e鈥檝e grown a lot in the past 30 years. That came from Germany and the EU, not Russia.鈥�

A decade ago, Polish conservatives attempted an end run around Germany and France by finding a more independent path within the EU. It would be a member, but it would also build up its own sphere of influence in Central Europe and strengthen ties with Britain and United States. The effort fizzled.

Maybe there is a lesson in that, suggests Iga Kostecka.

The political science student pauses as she speaks, considering her words carefully on a break from classes in the leafy quad of the University of Warsaw. She notes that Poland鈥檚 democracy was adopted in the mad rush to leave communism behind, and perhaps the country鈥檚 next steps forward 鈥� for itself and Europe 鈥� involve seeing its role through a new lens.

鈥淲e see democracy as something that brings an economic advantage, not something much more deep-rooted,鈥� she says. But becoming a democracy and joining the EU isn鈥檛 just about economic gain, she adds. 鈥淲ith democracy comes certain values.鈥�