海角大神

As she watches emergency crews clear rubble in a cloud of choking dust while the sun sets, Olena Khirkovska is simply grateful to be alive. Russia鈥檚 latest missile and drone attacks on Kyiv shattered her apartment, crushed her car, and killed most of her neighbors.

鈥淎ll our belongings are gone 鈥� but thank God we are alive,鈥� says Ms. Khirkovska, standing in the wreckage, wrapped in a borrowed sweater. 鈥淲e are one of the lucky ones.鈥�

Russia鈥檚 large-scale assault on the capital in the early hours of last Thursday killed at least 13, underscoring the strain on Ukraine鈥檚 air defenses 鈥� and on its civilian population, which is long accustomed to monitoring phones for alarms signaling incoming missiles.

With American aid uncertain and European production of key systems lagging, Ukrainians like Ms. Khirkovska find themselves not only grieving, but also asking how long their country can hold the line 鈥� and at what cost. Across Ukraine, frustration grows at diplomatic efforts that seem only to embolden Russia.

鈥淓ven in the midst of international diplomatic efforts to stop this war, Russia continues to kill civilians,鈥� noted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 鈥淭his means that Putin is not afraid.鈥�

鈥淚 blame the terrorist state Russia,鈥� says Ms. Khirkovska, an accountant. She also blames the West for inadequate support to Ukraine. 鈥淭hey just won鈥檛 understand until such scenes reach their cities. Our air defenses used to be more efficient, but Russian attacks have intensified and diversified.鈥�

An officer of Ukraine鈥檚 air defense forces confirms that assessment. 鈥淭he Russians have changed tactics since the so-called peace talks began,鈥� he says, estimating a threefold or fourfold increase in missile and drone attacks. 鈥淭hey gather as much firepower as they can, and then they target one area with all they have. We cannot intercept such a huge number of missiles and drones focused on one spot.鈥�

Negotiate, then strike

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War documented a clear intensification of Russian combined drone and missile activity in the first several months of 2025, compared with the same span in 2024. Strikes steadily increased after President Donald Trump鈥檚 inauguration in mid-January. They hit new heights after his first phone call with President Vladimir Putin and during talks between the United States and Russia in Saudi Arabia.

The volume and scale of attacks appear to rise in tandem with international negotiations.

鈥淭here are no such things as coincidences,鈥� says the Ukrainian air defense officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because he鈥檚 not authorized to speak on the record. 鈥淲hen it happens once, you can say it is an impression. When you see it happen multiple times ... it鈥檚 a strategy.鈥�

The firepower that Russia directed at the capital shortly after 1 a.m. on April 24 included six cruise missiles from the Black Sea; two ballistic missiles from Voronezh, Russia; and a swarm of Shahed drones. It marked the largest attack on the capital this year and pushed air defense systems to 鈥渢he edge of their capabilities.鈥�

Russia, the officer says, used its purported Easter truce to accumulate firepower. Military and critical-energy infrastructure is the highest priority for the activation of air defense systems to intercept missiles. Ukraine鈥檚 current air defense capabilities are insufficient to adequately protect civilian areas.

鈥淲e depend a lot on what is provided to us by Western partners,鈥� says the officer. 鈥淎 large number of these capabilities have been suspended. We do not have the means to protect ourselves properly.鈥�

Kyiv is bracing for worse. President Trump has threatened to pull all support for Ukraine and its military if there is no breakthrough in peace talks. A diplomatic push in London last week was downgraded amid bitter frustration in Kyiv over U.S. proposals that, in Ukraine鈥檚 view, favor Moscow by including territorial concessions.

On Monday, President Putin did declare a three-day ceasefire from May 8 to 10, to coincide with the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union and its allies over Nazi Germany in World War II. Both Kyiv and the White House responded with calls for a permanent ceasefire.

Fighting without the U.S.

Ukraine鈥檚 ability to defend its cities from Russian missile attacks heavily depends on U.S. support, particularly in air defense and intelligence. American satellite data and surveillance provide early warnings of incoming strikes, allowing Ukraine to activate defenses in time to save lives.

U.S.-supplied systems like the Patriot to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles are considered essential here. They create a protective shield over urban areas to prevent large-scale civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Interruptions in U.S. support leave Ukraine significantly more vulnerable.

In March, the Trump administration halted military support to Ukraine for a week, effectively testing Ukrainian and European resolve to continue fighting against Russia. The U.S. provides 30% of Ukraine鈥檚 military capabilities, another 30% comes from European and other international allies, and Ukraine covers the remaining 40%.

鈥淭hat week showed that Ukraine and Europe could continue to fight against Russia without the United States,鈥� says Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network. It also underscored in capitals across the Atlantic that the U.S. is an increasingly unreliable ally, setting in motion efforts to fill the gap.

In the long term, U.S. support is not critical, according to Mr. Samus 鈥� with one exception. 鈥淲hat is a critical dependence is the Patriot air defense system, which is still unique because of the capabilities to down Russian ballistic missiles,鈥� he says.

He notes that European alternatives like the SAMP/T air defense system are rare, with only a couple deployed in Europe and Ukraine. More are being produced, but it will take months to produce at a 鈥渘ormal tempo.鈥� And even then, that won鈥檛 be enough, he says.

Staying put

In Kyiv, residents have adjusted to the regular wail of sirens and periodic explosions. Even though the missile rounds that struck last Thursday stood out for their illuminative and ground-shaking intensity, the capital quickly bounced back. Adults showed up to work with bags under their eyes after dropping off children at school.

鈥淚 feel completely powerless when I see everything that we are fighting for get destroyed, to see all this manipulation,鈥� says Maryna Trofymova, referring to Mr. Trump鈥檚 diplomatic efforts and the scaled-up Russian attacks. 鈥淏ut we must hold on.鈥�

Before dusk last Thursday, emergency crews recovered two more bodies in Kyiv鈥檚 Sviatoshynskyi district. A stuffed animal on a destroyed swing appeared to survey the scene. One emergency worker retrieved a dead black cat from the rubble.

Such events are traumatizing 鈥� or, in the case of Ms. Trofymova, retraumatizing. Last summer a Russian missile pummeled her workplace, the national children鈥檚 hospital in Kyiv. Still, leaving is not a consideration.

鈥淚t is our choice to be here now,鈥� she says firmly. 鈥淥ur homeland is here, and we love our homeland.鈥�

Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.

Editor's note: This story, originally posted on April 28, was updated to clarify a quote from Olena Khirkovska on Russian tactics.