海角大神

In less than a week, the U.S.-Russia relationship has shot from a vacuum to full engagement, with teams led by their respective foreign ministers meeting in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Tuesday. Their goal? To prepare an agenda for a face-to-face summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, who could possibly meet before the end of this month.

For the moment, the two sides appear to be more or less on the same page. Mr. Trump is clearly anxious to frame a peace settlement to end the war in Ukraine and move on 鈥� and Mr. Putin says he is amenable to that.

But Moscow is hoping for much more. The Kremlin wants a permanent restoration of full-spectrum bilateral diplomatic relations, in which two superpowers negotiate their differences as equals, Cold War style.

The process seems to be headed that way. Though no one is yet talking about sanctions relief, one member of Russia鈥檚 high-powered delegation in Saudi Arabia is sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev, who told journalists on Tuesday that he is already discussing economic cooperation with his American counterparts.

鈥淎 return to normality doesn鈥檛 sound like a big deal, but it鈥檚 actually a momentous development,鈥� says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal.

Since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, Washington鈥檚 relations with Moscow have been marked by confrontation over Moscow鈥檚 war in Ukraine, leading to economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, Mr. Lukyanov recalls. 鈥淚t鈥檚 all been downhill,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he last time we saw a moment anything like this was the Obama 鈥榬eset鈥� a decade and a half ago.鈥�

A summit between the two presidents will demonstrate to the world that Russia and the United States have returned to respectful and productive dialogue, says Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser.

The two leaders may signal to their respective establishments that it is time to re-open all the channels 鈥� arms control, academia, airlines, even the post office 鈥� that have been frozen for years. In addition, he expects, they will probably set up a working group to hammer out terms for a possible peace settlement in Ukraine. That would provide an appropriate format for including the Ukrainian and European governments, he suggests.

鈥淚 believe there is a will to do this on both sides,鈥� says Mr. Markov. 鈥淭here is nothing in Putin鈥檚 demands for a Ukraine settlement that would harm American interests. Why should the American people care if Ukraine is neutral, if its Russian-speakers have rights, if some traditionally Russian parts of the country revert to Russia, if [Ukraine] has peaceful relations with Moscow?鈥�

The breakthrough came last Wednesday with a lengthy phone call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin in which they agreed to revive bilateral diplomacy.

Mr. Trump and his team have been sharply criticized in Europe for having given away in advance key bargaining positions, such as Ukraine鈥檚 membership of NATO, or its desire to recover Russian-conquered territory. But Moscow seems to view such moves as simply a recognition of reality.

From Moscow鈥檚 perspective, the West, under U.S. leadership, made every effort over the past three years to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, and failed.

Unless western governments directly intervene on the battlefield, Russian analysts say, Ukraine has lost the war, and Russia will dictate terms to Kyiv in the end.

If the summit fails, says Mr. Lukyanov, President Putin 鈥渨ill just continue pressing Ukraine on the battlefield. There鈥檚 not much the West can do that it hasn鈥檛 already tried. Trump and his team just want to get rid of Ukraine, get it off their plate as quickly as possible. It鈥檚 a lost cause, and they want to move beyond it.鈥�

As for some of the grander ideas that Mr. Trump has expressed, such as weaning Russia away from its deepening association with China, Russian analysts are skeptical. Sanctions have cut Russian economic ties with the West, and supply chains for everything from energy to automobiles have been rerouted, mainly to China.

While still short of an alliance, the relationship between Russia and China has started to look unshakeable.

Among other things, 鈥渢here is a very tight personal relationship鈥� between President Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, says Alexei Mukhin, director of the independent Center for Political Information in Moscow. 鈥淥ne thing we know about Putin is that he takes his friendships very seriously.鈥�

Andrei Klimov, deputy chair of the international affairs committee of Russia鈥檚 upper house of parliament, recalls an old Soviet watchword 鈥� 鈥減eaceful coexistence鈥� 鈥� to explain the Kremlin鈥檚 new goal for U.S.-Russia relations.

鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 mean we鈥檙e friends,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut there鈥檚 mutual respect, cooperation where possible, an effort to understand each other鈥檚 positions, and active diplomacy aimed at finding a balance.鈥�